Abstract: Different approaches to map seismic rupture in space and time often lead to incoherent results for the same event. Building on earlier work by our team, we ‘time-reverse’ and ‘backpropagate’ seismic surface wave recordings to study the focusing of the time-reversed field at the seismic source. Currently used source-imaging methods relying on seismic recordings neglect the information carried by surface waves, and mostly focus on the P-wave arrival alone. Our new method combines seismic time reversal approach with a surface wave ray-tracing algorithm based on a generalized spherical-harmonic parametrization of surface wave phase velocity, accounting for azimuthal anisotropy. It is applied to surface wave signal filtered within narrow-frequency bands, so that the inherently 3-D problem of simulating surface wave propagation is separated into a suite of 2-D problems, each of relatively limited computational cost. We validate our method through a number of synthetic tests, then apply it to the great 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake, characterized by the extremely large extent of the ruptured fault. Many studies have estimated its rupture characteristics from seismological data (e.g. Lomax, Ni et al., Guilbert et al., Ishii et al., Krüger & Ohrnberger, Jaffe et al.) and geodetic data (e.g. Banerjee et al., Catherine et al., Vigny et al., Hashimoto et al., Bletery et al.). Applying our technique to recordings from only 89 stations of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) and bandpass filtering the corresponding surface wave signal around 80-to-120, 50-to-110 and 40-to-90 s, we reproduce the findings of earlier studies, including in particular the northward direction of rupture propagation, its approximate spatial extent and duration, and the locations of the areas where most energy appears to be released.

Abstract: Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world's oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species.

Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071–2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.