Abstract: Interpretation of greenhouse gas records in polar ice cores requires a good understanding of the mechanisms controlling gas trapping in polar ice, and therefore of the processes of densification and pore closure in firn (compacted snow). Current firn densification models are based on a macroscopic description of the firn and rely on empirical laws and/or idealized geometries to obtain the equations governing the densification and pore closure. Here, we propose a physically-based methodology explicitly representing the porous structure and its evolution over time. In order to handle the complex geometry and topological changes that occur during firn densification, we rely on a Level-Set representation of the interface between the ice and the pores. Two mechanisms are considered for the displacement of the interface: (i) mass surface diffusion driven by local pore curvature and (ii) ice dislocation creep. For the latter, ice is modeled as a viscous material and the flow velocities are solutions of the Stokes equations. First applications show that the model is able to densify firn and split pores. Using the model in cold and arid conditions of the Antarctic plateau, we show that gas trapping models do not have to consider the reduced compressibility of closed pores compared to open pores in the deepest part of firns. Our results also suggest that the mechanism of curvature-driven surface diffusion does not result in pore splitting, and that ice creep has to be taken into account for pores to close. Future applications of this type of model could help quantify the evolution and closure of firn porous networks for various accumulation and temperature conditions.

Abstract: Identifying factors influencing survivorship is key to understanding population persistence. Although satellite telemetry is a powerful tool for studying remote animal ecology and behaviour it is rarely used for demographic studies because distinguishing the death of the animal (individual mortality) from failure of the tag (mechanical tag failure) has proven difficult. Southern elephant seals present an opportunity to separate tag failure from animal mortality thanks to the availability of large tracking datasets, broad knowledge of demographic rates, and because for these large animals, satellite tags are known not to influence mortality rates. A key rationale for investigating satellite telemetry to estimate mortality as compared to using traditional Capture-Mark-Recapture methods is the potential for obtaining spatially and temporally specific information, particularly while the animals are at sea and largely unobservable. We used satellite tag data from 182 seals from Isles Kerguelen, deployed between 2004 and 2018. Of these, 76 (42%) tags transmitted for the full post-moult foraging trip (max. 265 days for females and max. 305 days for sub-adult males) with the remaining 107 tags (58%) ceasing transmission at sea. We found that contrary to expectations, behavioural choices seem not to influence tag failure rates by mechanical means, rather the signals we detected seemed to align with previously described variation in mortality between groups. There was evidence, albeit limited, for an increase in tag failure for adult females in years with negative Southern Annular Mode (lower Southern Ocean productivity). We speculate that this increase in failure may suggest higher mortality in these years. Also, males using the Kerguelen Plateau had higher tag failure rates than those in the sea-ice zone, perhaps indicative of higher mortality. We suspect that these differences in tag failure rates between groups reflect variation in predator exposure and foraging success. This suggests satellite telemetry could be used to infer mortality events for southern elephant seals while they are at sea.

Abstract: The world’s coastal areas are increasingly at risk of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). We present a novel global dataset of extreme sea levels, the Coastal Dataset for the Evaluation of Climate Impact (CoDEC), which can be used to accurately map the impact of climate change on coastal regions around the world. The third generation Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM), with a coastal resolution of 2.5 km (1.25 km in Europe), was used to simulate extreme sea levels for the ERA5 climate reanalysis from 1979 to 2017, as well as for future climate scenarios from 2040 to 2100. The validation against observed sea levels demonstrated a good performance, and the annual maxima had a mean bias (MB) of -0.04 m, which is 50% lower than the MB of the previous GTSR dataset. By the end of the century (2071–2100), it is projected that the 1 in 10-year water levels will have increased 0.34 m on average for RCP4.5, while some locations may experience increases of up to 0.5 m. The change in return levels is largely driven by SLR, although at some locations changes in storms surges and interaction with tides amplify the impact of SLR with changes up to 0.2 m. By presenting an application of the CoDEC dataset to the city of Copenhagen, we demonstrate how climate impact indicators derived from simulation can contribute to an understanding of climate impact on a local scale. Moreover, the CoDEC output locations are designed to be used as boundary conditions for regional models, and we envisage that they will be used for dynamic downscaling.

Abstract: Snow packs cover large expanses of Earth’s land surface, making them integral components of the cryosphere in terms of past climate and atmospheric proxies, surface albedo regulators, insulators for other Arctic environments and habitats for diverse microbial communities such as algae, bacteria and fungi. Yet, most of our current understanding of snow pack environments, specifically microbial activity and community interaction, is limited to the main microbial growing season during spring ablation. At present, little is known about microbial activity and its influence on nutrient cycling during the subfreezing temperatures and 24-h darkness of the polar winter. Here, we examined microbial dynamics in a simulated cold (−5°C), dark snow pack to determine polar winter season microbial activity and its dependence on critical nutrients. Snow collected from Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard was incubated in the dark over a 5-week period with four different nutrient additions, including glacial mineral particles, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and a combined treatment of DIN plus DIP. Data indicate a consumption of dissolved inorganic nutrients, particularly DIN, by heterotrophic communities, suggesting a potential nitrogen limitation, contradictory to phosphorus limitations found in most aquatic environments. 16S amplicon sequencing also reveal a clear difference in microbial community composition in the particulate mineral treatment compared to dissolved nutrient treatments and controls, suggesting that certain species of heterotrophs living within the snow pack are more likely to associate with particulates. Particulate phosphorus analyses indicate a potential ability of heterotrophic communities to access particulate sources of phosphorous, possibly explaining the lack of phosphorus limitation. These findings have importance for understanding microbial activity during the polar winter season and its potential influences on the abundance and bioavailability of nutrients released to surface ice and downstream environments during the ablation season.

Abstract: Incubating eggs represents a trade-off for parent birds between spending enough time fasting to take care of the clutch and to get enough nutrients for self-maintenance. It is believed that the pituitary hormone prolactin plays an important role in such allocation processes. Incubation does not solely imply the active warming of the eggs but also the active egg-turning to facilitate absorption of albumen by the embryo, reduce malposition and prevent the embryo from adhering to the inner shell membrane. However, how prolactin secretion is related to egg-turning behaviors is presently poorly addressed. In addition, several environmental contaminants can affect parental care behaviors through their endocrine disrupting properties but the effects of such contaminants on egg-turning behaviors remain so far unexplored. Using artificial eggs equipped with miniaturized data loggers, we investigated the relationships between egg-turning behaviors, prolactin secretion and contaminants burden in Arctic black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Specifically, we examined the relationships between blood concentrations of poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), organochlorines (OCs), mercury (Hg), plasma prolactin levels and both egg-turning frequency and angular change. We also incorporated baseline corticosterone levels since this glucocorticoid is known to affect parental care. Plasma prolactin levels were positively related to angular change in female kittiwakes while corticosterone was not related to egg-turning behaviors in either sex. Hg was not related to egg-turning behaviors in either sex. We found contrasting associations between OCs and PFASs, since polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were negatively associated with angular change in females, contrary to linear perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOSlin) and perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) which were positively related to egg-turning frequency and angular change in both sexes. Additionally, PFASs concentrations were positively related to prolactin levels in female kittiwake. The possible stimulation of prolactin secretion by PFASs could therefore make adult kittiwakes to allocate more time taking care of their eggs, and thus possibly modify the trade-off between spending enough time caring for the clutch and obtaining enough nutrients at sea.