Abstract: Observations of the geomagnetic field taken at Earth’s surface and at satellite altitude are combined to construct continuous models of the geomagnetic field and its secular variation from 1957 to 2020. From these parent models, we derive candidate main field models for the epochs 2015 and 2020 to the 13th generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). The secular variation candidate model for the period 2020–2025 is derived from a forecast of the secular variation in 2022.5, which results from a multi-variate singular spectrum analysis of the secular variation from 1957 to 2020.

Abstract: Biophysical interactions are influential in determining the scale of key ecological processes within marine ecosystems. For oceanic predators, this means foraging behaviour is influenced by processes shaping the distribution of prey. However, oceanic prey is difficult to observe and its abundance and distribution is regionally generalised. We use a spatiotemporally resolved simulation model to describe mid-trophic prey distribution within the Southern Ocean and demonstrate insights that this modelled prey field provides into the foraging behaviour of a widely distributed marine predator, the southern elephant seal. From a five-year simulation of prey biomass, we computed climatologies of mean prey biomass (average prey conditions) and prey biomass variability (meso-scale variability). We also compiled spatially gridded metrics of seal density and diving behaviour from 13 yr of tracking data. We statistically modelled these metrics as non-linear functions of prey biomass (both mean and variability) and used these to predict seal distribution and behaviour. Our predictions were consistent with observations (R2adj = 0.23), indicating that seals aggregate in regions of high mesoscale activity where eddies concentrate prey. Here, seals dived deeper (R2marg = 0.12, R2cond = 0.51) and spent less time hunting (R2marg = 0.05, R2cond = 0.56), likely targeting deep but profitable prey patches. Seals generally avoided areas of low eddy activity where prey was likely dispersed. Most seals foraged south of the Subantarctic Front, despite north of the front exhibiting consistently high simulated prey biomasses. This likely reflects seal prey or habitat preferences, but also emphasises the importance of mesoscale prey biomass variability relative to regionally high mean biomass. This work demonstrates the value of coupling mechanistic representations of prey biomass with predator observations to provide insight into how biophysical processes combine to shape species distributions. This will be increasingly important for the robust prediction of species’ responses to rapid system change.

Abstract: Characterizing the spatial distribution and variation of species communities and validating these characteristics with data from the field are key elements for an ecosystem-based approach to management. However, models of species distributions that yield community structure are usually not linked to models of community dynamics, constraining understanding and management of the ecosystem, particularly in data-poor regions. Here we use a qualitative network model to predict changes in Antarctic benthic community structure between major marine habitats characterized largely by seafloor depth and slope, and use multivariate mixture models of species distributions to validate the community dynamics. We then assess how future increases in primary production associated with anticipated loss of sea-ice may affect the ecosystem. Our study shows how both spatial and structural features of ecosystems in data-poor regions can be analyzed and possible futures assessed, with direct relevance for ecosystem-based management.

Abstract: Baffin Bay, located at the Arctic Ocean’s ‘doorstep’, is a heterogeneous environment where a warm and salty eastern current flows northwards in the opposite direction of a cold and relatively fresh Arctic current flowing along the west coast of the bay. This circulation affects the physical and biogeochemical environment on both sides of the bay. The phytoplanktonic species composition is driven by its environment and, in turn, shapes carbon transfer through the planktonic food web. This study aims at determining the effects of such contrasting environments on ecosystem structure and functioning and the consequences for the carbon cycle. Ecological indices calculated from food web flow values provide ecosystem properties that are not accessible by direct in situ measurement. From new biological data gathered during the Green Edge project, we built a planktonic food web model for each side of Baffin Bay, considering several biological processes involved in the carbon cycle, notably in the gravitational, lipid, and microbial carbon pumps. Missing flow values were estimated by linear inverse modeling. Calculated ecological network analysis indices revealed significant differences in the functioning of each ecosystem. The eastern Baffin Bay food web presents a more specialized food web that constrains carbon through specific and efficient pathways, leading to segregation of the microbial loop from the classical grazing chain. In contrast, the western food web showed redundant and shorter pathways that caused a higher carbon export, especially via lipid and microbial pumps, and thus promoted carbon sequestration. Moreover, indirect effects resulting from bottom-up and top-down control impacted pairwise relations between species differently and led to the dominance of mutualism in the eastern food web. These differences in pairwise relations affect the dynamics and evolution of each food web and thus might lead to contrasting responses to ongoing climate change.