Abstract: Characterizing the spatial distribution and variation of species communities and validating these characteristics with data from the field are key elements for an ecosystem-based approach to management. However, models of species distributions that yield community structure are usually not linked to models of community dynamics, constraining understanding and management of the ecosystem, particularly in data-poor regions. Here we use a qualitative network model to predict changes in Antarctic benthic community structure between major marine habitats characterized largely by seafloor depth and slope, and use multivariate mixture models of species distributions to validate the community dynamics. We then assess how future increases in primary production associated with anticipated loss of sea-ice may affect the ecosystem. Our study shows how both spatial and structural features of ecosystems in data-poor regions can be analyzed and possible futures assessed, with direct relevance for ecosystem-based management.

Abstract: Evolutionary theories of seasonal migration generally assume that the costs of longer migrations are balanced by benefits at the non-breeding destinations. We tested, and rejected, the null hypothesis of equal survival and timing of spring migration for High Arctic breeding sanderling Calidris alba using six and eight winter destinations between 55°N and 25°S, respectively. Annual apparent survival was considerably lower for adult birds wintering in tropical West Africa (Mauritania: 0.74 and Ghana: 0.75) than in three European sites (0.84, 0.84 and 0.87) and in subtropical Namibia (0.85). Moreover, compared with adults, second calendar-year sanderlings in the tropics, but not in Europe, often refrained from migrating north during the first possible breeding season. During northward migration, tropical-wintering sanderlings occurred at their final staging site in Iceland 5–15 days later than birds wintering further north or south. Namibia-wintering sanderlings tracked with solar geolocators only staged in West Africa during southward migration. The low annual survival, the later age of first northward migration and the later passage through Iceland during northward migration of tropical-wintering sanderlings, in addition to the skipping of this area during northward but not southward migration by Namibia-wintering sanderlings, all suggest they face issues during the late non-breeding season in West Africa. Migrating sanderlings defy long distances but may end up in winter areas with poor fitness prospects. We suggest that ecological conditions in tropical West Africa make the fuelling prior to northward departure problematic.

Abstract: Penguins are the only extant family of flightless diving birds. They currently comprise at least 18 species, distributed from polar to tropical environments in the Southern Hemisphere. The history of their diversification and adaptation to these diverse environments remains controversial. We used 22 new genomes from 18 penguin species to reconstruct the order, timing, and location of their diversification, to track changes in their thermal niches through time, and to test for associated adaptation across the genome. Our results indicate that the penguin crown-group originated during the Miocene in New Zealand and Australia, not in Antarctica as previously thought, and that Aptenodytes is the sister group to all other extant penguin species. We show that lineage diversification in penguins was largely driven by changing climatic conditions and by the opening of the Drake Passage and associated intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Penguin species have introgressed throughout much of their evolutionary history, following the direction of the ACC, which might have promoted dispersal and admixture. Changes in thermal niches were accompanied by adaptations in genes that govern thermoregulation and oxygen metabolism. Estimates of ancestral effective population sizes (Ne) confirm that penguins are sensitive to climate shifts, as represented by three different demographic trajectories in deeper time, the most common (in 11 of 18 penguin species) being an increased Ne between 40 and 70 kya, followed by a precipitous decline during the Last Glacial Maximum. The latter effect is most likely a consequence of the overall decline in marine productivity following the last glaciation.

Abstract: The Inuit of Qikiqtaaluk (Baffin Island) have developed a deep respect for their natural environment and are able to report not only changes in weather, ice, and natural resources but also changes in their communities as a result of climate change. The objective of this study was to shed light on how the impacts of climate change are currently perceived in the communities of Kanngiqtugaapik, Pangniqtuuq, and Qikiqtarjuaq. In order to construct a shared knowledge base, we conducted qualitative video interviews and participated in a hunting camp with multigenerational and multigender Inuit hunters and fishers. First, Inuit continue to see the world in which they cohabit with other living things, particularly animals, as a world that they cannot control on their own—a world they must adapt to, passing learning from one generation to the next. Second, they report that changes in the ice have been among the major and most important transformations to have occurred in recent decades. Observations made by these local populations also indicate changes in hunted species, with fewer caribou and narwhal, more birds, insects, and fish, including from more southerly regions, and an uncertainty about polar bear populations. Seal hunting remains stable, and this meat is still the most popular and healthy food, physically and psychologically. Third, sociological and economic changes (e.g., lifestyle change, monetary economies, quotas), in addition to environmental changes (e.g., climate change, species change), have had a significant impact on food harvesting activities as well as food consumption in the region. A final perspective concerns the needs of the Qikiqtaaluk communities to further develop collaboration with scientists. This need for partnership is not only perceived as a scientific necessity but also recognized by Inuit as essential to their communities, with some local leaders ready to work toward a fruitful collaboration.

Abstract: Interpretation of greenhouse gas records in polar ice cores requires a good understanding of the mechanisms controlling gas trapping in polar ice, and therefore of the processes of densification and pore closure in firn (compacted snow). Current firn densification models are based on a macroscopic description of the firn and rely on empirical laws and/or idealized geometries to obtain the equations governing the densification and pore closure. Here, we propose a physically-based methodology explicitly representing the porous structure and its evolution over time. In order to handle the complex geometry and topological changes that occur during firn densification, we rely on a Level-Set representation of the interface between the ice and the pores. Two mechanisms are considered for the displacement of the interface: (i) mass surface diffusion driven by local pore curvature and (ii) ice dislocation creep. For the latter, ice is modeled as a viscous material and the flow velocities are solutions of the Stokes equations. First applications show that the model is able to densify firn and split pores. Using the model in cold and arid conditions of the Antarctic plateau, we show that gas trapping models do not have to consider the reduced compressibility of closed pores compared to open pores in the deepest part of firns. Our results also suggest that the mechanism of curvature-driven surface diffusion does not result in pore splitting, and that ice creep has to be taken into account for pores to close. Future applications of this type of model could help quantify the evolution and closure of firn porous networks for various accumulation and temperature conditions.