Abstract: Breeding success is often correlated with climate, but the underlying bottom-up mechanisms remain elusive—particularly in marine environments. Consequently, conservation plans of many species often consider climate change as a unilateral threat, ignoring that even nearby populations can show contradicting trends with climate. Better understanding the relationship between climate and environment at different scales can help us interpret local differences in population trends, ultimately providing better tools to evaluate the global response of a species to threats such as global warming. We studied a growing king penguin population nesting at Kerguelen island (Southern Indian Ocean), hosting one of the largest colonies in the world. We used a unique dataset of foraging, breeding success, and climate data spanning over 25 years to examine the links between climate, marine environment, and breeding success at this colony. The results were then compared to the neighboring population of Crozet, which experienced the steepest decline for this species over the past few decades. At Crozet, penguins experienced lower breeding success in warmer years due to productive currents shifting away from the colony, affecting foraging behavior during chick rearing. At Kerguelen, while chick mass and survival experienced extreme variation from year to year, the annual variation was not associated with the position of the currents, which varied very little compared to the situation in Crozet. Rather than being affected by prey distribution shifts, we found evidence that chick provisioning in Kerguelen might be influenced by prey abundance, which seem to rather increase in warmer conditions. Furthermore, warmer air temperature in winter increased chick survival rate, likely due to reduced thermoregulation cost. Investigating the mechanisms between climate and fitness allowed us to predict two different fates for these populations regarding ongoing global warming.

Abstract: The geomagnetic field is composed of a variety of sources that act on a wide range of timescales and amplitudes. The separation of magnetic storm effects from quiet variations is needed to accurately quantify impacts of space weather events. The extraction of such quiet contributions within geomagnetic measurements is achieved by the determination of baselines, which, ideally, is done by a simple algorithm which captures quiet sources suitably well, while being applicable to an extensive network of magnetic observatories independent of the period of time. In this work, we apply signal filtering techniques on the horizontal components of geomagnetic field measurements from low- and mid-latitude observatories to determine baselines. The variations within the baseline are investigated for magnetically quiet periods between 1991 and 2019, focusing on long-term trends, seasonal and local time dependencies, and day-to-day variability. The analysis confirms that the contributing quiet sources include the secular variation and the solar quiet (Sq) current system. The non-negligible day-to-day variability, that is typical for Sq in low- and mid-latitudes, is embedded within the baseline. Thus, the filter approach extracts quiet magnetic field variations well. Comparisons with other baseline methods show good agreements. We conclude that the filter approach can be used to determine baselines automatically during magnetically quiet periods without the need of further apriori information and is applicable on a wide network of magnetic observatories. It marks the first step for deriving magnetic indices for (near) real-time space weather applications.

Abstract: The impact of industrial fisheries on marine biodiversity is conspicuous in large pelagic vertebrate's fisheries bycatch. In seabirds, this led to the decline of many populations since the 1980s following the rise of global fishing effort. Bycatch mitigation measures were implemented since the 2000s, but their effects on the concerned seabird populations remain poorly quantified and understood. We studied the effects of bycatch mitigation measures on the demography of the white-chinned petrel, one of the most bycatch impacted seabirds whose populations suffered dramatic declines before the implementation of mitigation measures. To do so we (a) built multi-event capture–recapture models to estimate the demographic parameters of a population from Possession Island (southern Indian Ocean) over 30 years, (b) assessed the effect of climate and fishery covariates on demographic parameters, (c) built a population matrix model to estimate stochastic growth rate according to the management in fisheries bycatch and (d) estimated changes in breeding population density using distance sampling data. The population declined from the 1980s to the mid-2000s, while trawl and longline fisheries occurred with no bycatch mitigation measures. The negative effects of fishery bycatch through additive mortality and of rat predation on breeding success were likely the main drivers of this decline. Both modelled population growth rate and observed breeding densities showed an increase since the mid-2000s. We explained this trend by the improvement in survival probability following implementation of fishery bycatch mitigation measures and in breeding success probability with the local control of the rat population and changes in sea ice conditions on foraging grounds. Synthesis and applications. We provide a holistic approach to assess the effects of management measures by analysing datasets from sampling methods commonly employed in seabird studies. Our conclusions should encourage the eradication of invasive predatory species in seabird breeding areas and the strengthening of bycatch mitigation measures for the vulnerable seabird species, especially in international waters, but also the development of such measures considering the other marine large pelagic species threatened by fisheries bycatch (sharks, rays, turtles and marine mammals) since it could be crucial to avoid populations' extinction.

Abstract: We examine ocean tides in the barotropic version of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-Ocean), the ocean component of the Department of Energy Earth system model. We focus on four factors that affect tidal accuracy: self-attraction and loading (SAL), model resolution, details of the underlying bathymetry, and parameterized topographic wave drag. The SAL term accounts for the tidal loading of Earth's crust and the self-gravitation of the ocean and the load-deformed Earth. A common method for calculating SAL is to decompose mass anomalies into their spherical harmonic constituents. Here, we compare a scalar SAL approximation versus an inline SAL using a fast spherical harmonic transform package. Wave drag accounts for energy lost by breaking internal tides that are produced by barotropic tidal flow over topographic features. We compare a series of successively finer quasi-uniform resolution meshes (62.9, 31.5, 15.7, and 7.87 km) to a variable resolution (45 to 5 km) configuration. We ran MPAS-Ocean in a single-layer barotropic mode forced by five tidal constituents. The 45 to 5 km variable resolution mesh obtained the best total root-mean-square error (5.4 cm) for the deep ocean (1,000 m) tide compared to TPXO8 and ran twice as fast as the quasi-uniform 8 km mesh, which had an error of 5.8 cm. This error is comparable to those found in other forward (non-assimilative) ocean tide models. In future work, we plan to use MPAS-Ocean to study tidal interactions with other Earth system components, and the tidal response to climate change.

Abstract: In this study we map the entire East African Rift System (EARS) within a global surface-wave velocity model to better constrain the structure of the underlying mantle, as well as patterns that might be associated with its continuation in the Mozambique Channel. We use all publicly available seismograms from the African continent, amounting to 1296 stations and more than 30 years of recordings. From these data, we obtain dispersion curves using both ambient noise and teleseismic earthquakes. To our measurements, we add global counterparts and jointly invert them for phase-velocity maps. We exploit a linearized inversion based on the ray theory, with an adaptive parameterization that allows for maximizing the resolution of the final maps based on the density of data coverage. We thus image the main African cratons and also some of the Archean blocks within them. We highlight the discontinuous nature of magmatic activity along the EARS and also display low-velocity anomalies beneath the Comores Archipelago, Madagascar and Bassas da India volcanic islands and seamounts. This last low-velocity anomaly is in the direct continuation of the EARS and could unveil an important magmatic system in the Mozambique Channel.