TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ponchon Aurore, Garnier Romain
PY  - 2015//
TI  - Predicting population responses to environmental change: the importance of considering informed dispersal strategies in spatially structured population models
T2  - Divers. Distrib.
JO  - Diversity and Distributions
SP  - 88
EP  - 100
VL  - 21
IS  - 1
KW  - Breeding habitat selection
KW  - climate change
KW  - conspecific breeding success
KW  - extinction probabilities
KW  - prospecting behaviour
KW  - social information use
KW  -
N2  - Abstract: Aim Because of its complexity, dispersal has often been simplified when implemented in models aiming at understanding and predicting population dynamics and persistence in a context of environmental change. In particular, informed dispersal, i.e. the use of personal and social information to decide whether to leave a natal or current breeding site and where to settle, has seldom been considered. Informed dispersal could nevertheless be critical for predicting population dynamics, structure and persistence, as it could help populations track environmental change. Here, we develop a simulation model to examine the consequences of four dispersal strategies (informed, semi-informed, fixed random dispersal and philopatry) on the dynamics, structure and persistence of a spatially structured population under different environmental scenarios.Methods We built and parameterized a metapopulation dynamic model using a long-lived colonial seabird species as an example, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, breeding on a set of distinct patches. Various scenarios of environmental variability and multiple factors potentially driving natal and breeding dispersal decisions (local habitat quality, individual breeding success, personal and social information use) were considered in order to explore their respective effects. Results Environmental change and dispersal strategies strongly influenced metapopulation dynamics and structure. In spatially variable environments, informed and semi-informed dispersal maintained populations in the long-term, whereas philopatry and random dispersal led to extinction. Contrasted dynamics also arose: philopatry led to ecological traps, random and semi-informed dispersal led to source-sink dynamics, and informed dispersal drove extinction-recolonization dynamics. Main conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of including informed dispersal in models aiming at predicting the dynamics of spatially structured populations. It also serves to highlight the urgent need to collect more empirical data on dispersal processes in order to properly parameterize such models.
SN  - 1472-4642
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12273
N1  - exported from refbase (http://publi.ipev.fr/polar_references/show.php?record=5285), last updated on Sun, 28 Jul 2024 18:59:20 +0200
ID  - PonchonAurore2015
ER  -