TY  - JOUR
AU  - Cisternas A.
AU  - Polat O.
AU  - Rivera L.
PY  - 2004//
TI  - The Marmara Sea region: seismic behaviour in time and the likelihood of another large earthquake near Istanbul (Turkey)
JO  - Journal of seismology
SP  - 427
EP  - 437
VL  - 8
KW  - Asia
KW  - Middle East
KW  - tectonic controls
KW  - seismic risk
KW  - time variations
KW  - rupture
KW  - aftershocks
KW  - seismicity
KW  - stress
KW  - slip
KW  - strike
KW  - earthquakes
KW  - active faults
KW  - Marmara Sea
KW  - North Anatolian Fault
KW  - Turkey
N2  - The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) extends for about 1500 km from Karliova to the east, to the Egean Sea in the west. The Marmara region, located near the western end of the NAF, is a tectonically active zone characterized by the transition between a strike slip stress regime and an extensional one in the Aegean Sea. Microseismic studies performed around the Marmara Sea in 1995 [Tectonophysics 316, 2000, 1], and just before the 1999 Izmit Earthquake (Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361; J. Seismol. 6, 2002b, 287) permitted the analysis of the evolution of seismicity connected to this destructive earthquake and its sequels. Several observations indicate that the aftershock distribution fits well the EW orientation of the NAF, but the ruptures are not simple and linear as a first glance would suggest. Instead they are segmented in at least five pieces as shown by the slip variation and aftershock clusters, showing complexity at different scales (Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361). There is still a gap, across the northern border of the Marmara Sea that has not ruptured, and this is the only sector that did not break on the NAF since the 1939 great Erzincan earthquake. Will it rupture as a whole with a large magnitude earthquake, or by segments with smaller magnitude events? The Hurst analysis of the overall behaviour of the seismicity in the Marmara region since historical times shows that if a large earthquake occurs in the near future, it might break the complete gap. The Hurst character of the time variation of seismicity is persistent with H = 0.82. The aftershocks of the 1999 Izmit earthquake can be analyzed by using the Hurst method, showing an exceptionally high persistent memory.
SN  - 1383-4649
N1  - exported from refbase (http://publi.ipev.fr/polar_references/show.php?record=3420), last updated on Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:44:49 +0200
ID  - CisternasA._etal2004
ER  -