Abstract: Aim The conservation of biodiversity is hampered by data deficiencies, with many new species and subspecies awaiting description or reclassification. Population genomics and ecological niche modelling offer complementary new tools for uncovering functional units of phylogenetic diversity. We hypothesize that phylogenetically delineated lineages of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) distributed across Antarctica and sub-Antarctic Islands are subject to spatially explicit ecological conditions that have limited gene flow, facilitating genetic differentiation, and thereby speciation processes. Location Antarctica and sub-Antarctic area. Methods We identify divergent lineages for gentoo penguins using ddRAD-seq and mtDNA, and generated species distribution models (SDMs) based on terrestrial and marine parameters. Results Analyses of our genomic data supports the existence of four major lineages of gentoo penguin: (i) spanning the sub-Antarctic archipelagos north of the Antarctic Polar Front (APF); (ii) Kerguelen Island; (iii) South America; and (iv) across maritime Antarctic and the Scotia Arc archipelagos. The APF, a major current system around Antarctica, acts as the most important barrier separating regional sister lineages. Our ecological analyses spanning both the terrestrial (breeding sites) and marine (feeding sites) realms recover limited niche overlap among the major lineages of gentoo penguin. We observe this pattern to correspond more closely with regional differentiation of marine conditions than to terrestrial macroenvironmental features. Main conclusions Recognition of regional genetic lineages as discrete evolutionary entities that occupy distinct ecological niches and also differ morphologically should be considered a priority for conservation. Gentoo penguins provide a good example of how conservation policy can be directly impacted by new insights obtained through the integration of larger genomic datasets with novel approaches to ecological modelling. This is particularly pertinent to polar environments that are among the most rapidly changing environments on earth.

Abstract: The ancient solar energetic particle (SEP) events of 774/775 CE and 993/994 CE were characterized thanks to radionuclide productions stored in environmental archives as ice cores or tree rings. Primary cosmic ray spectra deduced from these cosmogenic isotope data indicate that the impact of these extreme SEP events would have been much more significant than any of the ones observed during the modern era. However, the impact of these should be studied more accurately in the framework of the ambient dose equivalent impacting aircrew and passengers in the air traffic context by considering physical parameters such as time profile or anisotropy properties. In this study, the impact that 774/775 CE and 993/994 CE past extreme SEP events could have had on modern air traffic is discussed. Possible event spectra for these ancient events are derived from the spectra ground-level enhancement (GLE) 5 and GLE 69, which have been observed during the modern era and have been widely studied/characterized using measurements. The investigations include the impact of the SEP activity on ambient dose equivalent, including detailed analyses considering route, airplane characteristics (departure, arrival, continent, airplane type), and the time occurrence of the SEP event. Statistical analyses show that additional dose levels can reach values on the order of 70 mSv, which is absolutely significant considering the current air traffic recommendations. The orders of magnitude of the ambient dose equivalent induced during past extreme SEP events raises a number of issues, both for aircrews and for avionics hardware. This study demonstrates that simulations can be useful for the evaluation of risks in case of extreme SEP events.

Abstract: The reduced species richness typical of oceanic islands provides an interesting environmental setup to examine in natura the epidemiological dynamics of infectious agents with potential implications for public health and/or conservation. On Amsterdam Island (Indian Ocean), recurrent die-offs of Indian yellow-nosed albatross (Thalassarche carteri) nestlings have been attributed to avian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida. In order to help implementing efficient measures for the control of this disease, it is critical to better understand the local epidemiology of P. multocida and to examine its inter- and intra-annual infection dynamics. We evaluated the infection status of 264 yellow-nosed albatrosses over four successive breeding seasons using a real-time PCR targeting P. multocida DNA from cloacal swabs. Infection prevalence patterns revealed an intense circulation of P. multocida throughout the survey, with a steady but variable increase in infection prevalence within each breeding season. These epizootics were associated with massive nestling dies-offs, inducing very low fledging successes (≤ 20%). These results suggest important variations in the transmission dynamics of this pathogen. These findings and the developed PCR protocol have direct applications to guide future research and refine conservation plans aiming at controlling the disease.

Abstract: Snow packs cover large expanses of Earth’s land surface, making them integral components of the cryosphere in terms of past climate and atmospheric proxies, surface albedo regulators, insulators for other Arctic environments and habitats for diverse microbial communities such as algae, bacteria and fungi. Yet, most of our current understanding of snow pack environments, specifically microbial activity and community interaction, is limited to the main microbial growing season during spring ablation. At present, little is known about microbial activity and its influence on nutrient cycling during the subfreezing temperatures and 24-h darkness of the polar winter. Here, we examined microbial dynamics in a simulated cold (−5°C), dark snow pack to determine polar winter season microbial activity and its dependence on critical nutrients. Snow collected from Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard was incubated in the dark over a 5-week period with four different nutrient additions, including glacial mineral particles, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and a combined treatment of DIN plus DIP. Data indicate a consumption of dissolved inorganic nutrients, particularly DIN, by heterotrophic communities, suggesting a potential nitrogen limitation, contradictory to phosphorus limitations found in most aquatic environments. 16S amplicon sequencing also reveal a clear difference in microbial community composition in the particulate mineral treatment compared to dissolved nutrient treatments and controls, suggesting that certain species of heterotrophs living within the snow pack are more likely to associate with particulates. Particulate phosphorus analyses indicate a potential ability of heterotrophic communities to access particulate sources of phosphorous, possibly explaining the lack of phosphorus limitation. These findings have importance for understanding microbial activity during the polar winter season and its potential influences on the abundance and bioavailability of nutrients released to surface ice and downstream environments during the ablation season.

Abstract:

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH₄) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH₄ continue to increase, making CH₄ the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO₂). The relative importance of CH₄ compared to CO₂ depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH₄ sources and from the destruction of CH₄ by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).

For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH₄ emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30^∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60^∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90^∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters.

Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ by 8 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH₄ measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-CH4-2019 (Saunois et al., 2020) and from the Global Carbon Project.