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Author Mark A. Hindell, Ryan R. Reisinger, Yan Ropert-Coudert, Luis A. Hückstädt, Philip N. Trathan, Horst Bornemann, Jean-Benoît Charrassin, Steven L. Chown, Daniel P. Costa, Bruno Danis, Mary-Anne Lea, David Thompson, Leigh G. Torres, Anton P. Van de Putte, Rachael Alderman, Virginia Andrews-Goff, Ben Arthur, Grant Ballard, John Bengtson, Marthán N. Bester, Arnoldus Schytte Blix, Lars Boehme, Charles-André Bost, Peter Boveng, Jaimie Cleeland, Rochelle Constantine, Stuart Corney, Robert J. M. Crawford, Luciano Dalla Rosa, P. J. Nico de Bruyn, Karine Delord, Sébastien Descamps, Mike Double, Louise Emmerson, Mike Fedak, Ari Friedlaender, Nick Gales, Michael E. Goebel, Kimberly T. Goetz, Christophe Guinet, Simon D. Goldsworthy, Rob Harcourt, Jefferson T. Hinke, Kerstin Jerosch, Akiko Kato, Knowles R. Kerry, Roger Kirkwood, Gerald L. Kooyman, Kit M. Kovacs, Kieran Lawton, Andrew D. Lowther, Christian Lydersen, Phil O’B Lyver, Azwianewi B. Makhado, Maria E. I. Márquez, Birgitte I. McDonald, Clive R. McMahon, Monica Muelbert, Dominik Nachtsheim, Keith W. Nicholls, Erling S. Nordøy, Silvia Olmastroni, Richard A. Phillips, Pierre Pistorius, Joachim Plötz, Klemens Pütz, Norman Ratcliffe, Peter G. Ryan, Mercedes Santos, Colin Southwell, Iain Staniland, Akinori Takahashi, Arnaud Tarroux, Wayne Trivelpiece, Ewan Wakefield, Henri Weimerskirch, Barbara Wienecke, José C. Xavier, Simon Wotherspoon, Ian D. Jonsen, Ben Raymond file  doi
openurl 
  Title Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Nature Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 580 Issue 7801 Pages 87-92  
  Keywords  
  Abstract Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.  
  Programme 394,1091,1182,1201  
  Campaign  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis Bachelor's thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1476-4687 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7673  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Alice Carravieri, Paco Bustamante, Pierre Labadie, Hélène Budzinski, Olivier Chastel, Yves Cherel file  doi
openurl 
  Title Trace elements and persistent organic pollutants in chicks of 13 seabird species from Antarctica to the subtropics Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Environment International Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 134 Issue Pages 105225  
  Keywords Albatrosses; Mercury; Penguins; Petrels; Selenium; Stable isotopes  
  Abstract Seabirds from remote regions are mainly exposed to environmental contaminants from non-point contamination of their food webs. Pre-fledging seabird chicks are fed by their parents with marine prey captured in the vicinity of breeding colonies. Contaminant concentrations in tissues of pre-fledging chicks can thus be mostly related to local dietary sources, and have the potential to unravel spatial patterns of environmental contamination in marine ecosystems. Here, mercury (Hg), 13 other trace elements, and 18 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were quantified in blood of chicks across four breeding locations that encompass a large latitudinal range in the southern Indian Ocean (from Antarctica, through subantarctic areas, to the subtropics), over a single breeding season. Thirteen species of penguins, albatrosses and petrels were studied, including endangered and near-threatened species, such as Amsterdam albatrosses and emperor penguins. Blood Hg burdens varied widely between species, with a factor of ~50 between the lowest and highest concentrations (mean ± SD, 0.05 ± 0.01 and 2.66 ± 0.81 µg g−1 dry weight, in thin-billed prions and Amsterdam albatrosses, respectively). Species relying on Antarctic waters for feeding had low Hg exposure. Concentrations of POPs were low in chicks, with the exception of hexachlorobenzene. Contaminant concentrations were mainly explained by species differences, but feeding habitat (inferred from δ13C values) and chicks’ body mass also contributed to explain variation. Collectively, our findings call for further toxicological investigations in Amsterdam albatrosses and small petrel species, because they were exposed to high and diverse sources of contaminants, and in macaroni penguins, which specifically showed very high selenium concentrations. Capsule Seabird chicks from four distant sites in the southern Indian Ocean had contrasted blood metallic and organic contaminant patterns depending on species, feeding habitat and body mass.  
  Programme 109  
  Campaign  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis Bachelor's thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0160-4120 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7674  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Marika Holland, David Iles, Sara Labrousse, Laura Landrum, Jimmy Garnier, Hal Caswell, Henri Weimerskirch, Michelle LaRue, Rubao Ji, Christophe Barbraud doi  openurl
  Title The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Global Change Biology Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 26 Issue 3 Pages 1170-1184  
  Keywords Antarctica climate change mitigation dispersion emission reduction pledges seabirds  
  Abstract The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.  
  Programme 109  
  Campaign  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1365-2486 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7675  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle doi  openurl
  Title Global Carbon Budget 2020 Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Earth System Science Data Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 12 Issue 4 Pages 3269-3340  
  Keywords  
  Abstract

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about 7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of 6 %, 7 %, 7 % (3 % to 11 %), and 13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).

 
  Programme 416  
  Campaign  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1866-3508 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7677  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Philip N. Trathan, Barbara Wienecke, Christophe Barbraud, Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Gerald Kooyman, Céline Le Bohec, David G. Ainley, André Ancel, Daniel P. Zitterbart, Steven L. Chown, Michelle LaRue, Robin Cristofari, Jane Younger, Gemma Clucas, Charles-André Bost, Jennifer A. Brown, Harriet J. Gillett, Peter T. Fretwell file  doi
openurl 
  Title The emperor penguin – Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Biological Conservation Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 241 Issue Pages 108216  
  Keywords Antarctic Climate change Conservation IUCN Red List threat status Protection  
  Abstract We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodytes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.  
  Programme 137,394  
  Campaign  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis Bachelor's thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0006-3207 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7678  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Hanane Marif, Jean Lilensten file  doi
openurl 
  Title Suprathermal electron moments in the ionosphere Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 10 Issue Pages 22  
  Keywords  
  Abstract The ionospheric electron population is divided into two groups. The ambient electrons are thermalized. Their energy is usually smaller than one electron volt. Their densities and temperatures are the usual ones measured by incoherent scatter radars, or modeled by international codes such as International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). There is however a second population called the suprathermal electrons. This one is either due to photoionization or to electron impact between the thermosphere and the precipitation in the high latitude zone. In the frame of space weather, it may be the source of scintillations, plasma bulks and other physical phenomena. The suprathermal electron population can only indirectly be measured through the plasmaline and had never been modeled. Its modeling requires the computation of the electron stationary flux by solving the Boltzmann transport equation. This flux is multiplied by various powers of the velocity v and integrated to obtain the different order moments. By integrating f over v0dv, one deduces the suprathermal electron density. An integration of v1fdv allows the computation of their mean velocity. Higher moments give access to their temperature and finally to their heat flux. In this work, we demonstrate for the first time the full and rigorous calculation of the ionospheric electron moments up to three. As two case studies, we focus on high latitude in the auroral oval and low magnetic latitude over Algiers for different solar and geophysical conditions. We compare the suprathermal densities and temperatures to the thermal electron parameters. Our results highlight that – as expected – the suprathermal density is small compared to the thermal one. Although it is close to 3 × 103 m−3 at 180 km during the day, it drops drastically at night, to hardly reach 3 m−3. Contrarily to the density, the velocity is about 10 times more important during the nighttime when precipitation occurs than during the daytime under the electromagnetic solar flux. At 400 km, it varies during the day between 700,000 m s−1 (active solar conditions) and 900,000 m s−1 (quiet Sun). At night, the velocity varies between 3 × 106 m s−1 (low mean energy precipitation) and 3 × 107 m s−1 (high mean energy precipitation) at 400 km. The suprathermal temperature increases as the solar activity decreases or as the mean energy of the electron precipitation increases. It may reach values close to 3 × 108 K. The heat flux may be fully oriented downward or experiences a reversal with some flux going up depending on the forcing.  
  Programme 1026  
  Campaign  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis Bachelor's thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2115-7251 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7679  
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Author C. Michelot, A. Kato, T. Raclot, K. Shiomi, P. Goulet, P. Bustamante, Y. Ropert-Coudert doi  isbn
openurl 
  Title Sea-ice edge is more important than closer open water access for foraging Adélie penguins: evidence from two colonies Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Marine Ecology Progress Series Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 640 Issue Pages 215-230  
  Keywords Colony Diet GPS Incubation trip Pygoscelis adeliae Sea-ice edge Stable isotopes  
  Abstract Sentinel species, like Adélie penguins, have been used to assess the impact of environmental changes, and their link with sea ice has received considerable attention. Here, we tested if foraging Adélie penguins from 2 colonies in East Antarctica target the distant sea-ice edge or take advantage of closer open waters that are readily available near their colony. We examined the foraging behaviour of penguins during the incubation trips of females in 2016 and males in 2017, using GPS tracking and diet data in view of daily sea-ice data and bathymetry. In 2016-2017, sea-ice cover was extensive during females’ trips but flaw leads and polynyas were close to both study sites. Sea ice receded rapidly during males’ trips in 2017-2018. Despite close open water near both colonies in both years, females and males preferentially targeted the continental slope and the sea-ice edge to forage. In addition, there was no difference in the diet of penguins from both colonies: all penguins fed mostly on Antarctic krill and males also foraged on Antarctic silverfish. Our results highlight the importance of the sea-ice edge for penguins, an area where food abundance is predictable. It is likely that resource availability was not sufficient in closer open water areas at such an early stage in the breeding season. The behaviours displayed by the penguins from both colonies were similar, suggesting a common behaviour across colonies in Terre Adélie, although additional sites would be necessary to confirm this hypothesis.  
  Programme 1091  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0171-8630, 1616-1599 ISBN 0171-8630, 1616-1599 Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7680  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author David Boertmann, Flemming Merkel, Olivier Gilg doi  openurl
  Title Seabird Breeding Colonies in East and North Greenland: A Baseline Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication ARCTIC Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 73 Issue 1 Pages 20-39  
  Keywords climate change colonial seabirds distribution Greenland  
  Abstract This paper presents the results of a number of aircraft- and boat-based surveys for seabird breeding colonies in East and North Greenland carried out in the period 2003 to 2018 and gives the first comprehensive overview of the distribution and size of the seabird breeding colonies in this remote and mainly uninhabited region. Seventeen seabird species breed in approximately 800 sites distributed very unevenly along the coasts, with high concentrations at the polynyas and long stretches with very few breeding seabirds. Climate changes are in full progress in East and North Greenland, especially affecting the sea ice regime, and seabirds are expected to respond to these changes in different ways. For example, since the 1980s, Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima) have extended their breeding range more than two latitudinal degrees towards the north, now reaching the northernmost land on Earth. Lesser Black-backed Gulls (Larus fuscus) and Great Cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo) have immigrated, and Sabine’s Gulls (Xema sabini) have increased and extended their range. Besides presenting survey results, this report may also serve as a baseline for future studies of the abundance of breeding seabirds in East and North Greenland.  
  Programme 1036  
  Campaign  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1923-1245 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7681  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author David T. Iles, Heather Lynch, Rubao Ji, Christophe Barbraud, Karine Delord, Stephanie Jenouvrier doi  openurl
  Title Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Global Change Biology Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 26 Issue 7 Pages 3788-3798  
  Keywords Antarctica environmental variation habitat suitability niche predictability state-space stochastic uncertainty  
  Abstract Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.  
  Programme 109  
  Campaign  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1365-2486 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7682  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Amandine Gamble, Romain Bazire, Karine Delord, Christophe Barbraud, Audrey Jaeger, Hubert Gantelet, Eric Thibault, Camille Lebarbenchon, Erwan Lagadec, Pablo Tortosa, Henri Weimerskirch, Jean-Baptiste Thiebot, Romain Garnier, Jérémy Tornos, Thierry Boulinier file  doi
openurl 
  Title Predator and scavenger movements among and within endangered seabird colonies: Opportunities for pathogen spread Type (up) Journal
  Year 2020 Publication Journal of Applied Ecology Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 57 Issue 2 Pages 367-378  
  Keywords conservation biology disease ecology dynamic space utilization individual heterogeneity movement ecology Pasteurella multocida sentinel species serology  
  Abstract The spatial structure of host communities is expected to constrain pathogen spread. However, predators and/or scavengers may connect distant host (sub)populations when foraging. Determining whether some individuals or populations play a prominent role in the spread of pathogens is critical to inform management measures. We explored movements and epidemiological status of brown skuas Stercorarius antarcticus, the only avian terrestrial consumer native of Amsterdam Island (Indian Ocean), to assess whether and how they could be involved in the spread of the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, which recurrently causes avian cholera outbreaks in endangered albatross and penguin species breeding on the island. High proportions of seropositive and DNA-positive individuals for P. multocida indicated that skuas are highly exposed to the pathogen and may be able to transmit it. Movement tracking revealed that the foraging ranges of breeding skuas largely overlap among individuals and expand all along the coasts where albatrosses and penguins nest, but not on the inland plateau hosting the endemic Amsterdam albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis. Considering the epidemiological and movement data, skua movements may provide opportunity for pathogen spread among and within seabird colonies. Synthesis and applications. This work highlights the importance of considering the behaviour and epidemiological status of predators and scavengers in disease dynamics because the foraging movements of individuals of such species can potentially limit the efficiency of local management measures in spatially structured host communities. Such species could thus represent priority vaccination targets to implement efficient management measures aiming at limiting pathogen spread and also be used as sentinels to monitor pathogen circulation and evaluate the effectiveness of management measures.  
  Programme 109,1151  
  Campaign  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis Bachelor's thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1365-2664 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 7683  
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