Abstract: This study is based on the analysis of detailed measurements of firn dielectric properties performed in Antarctica through coring down to 106 m. Dielectric measurements in the frequency band (0.4–2.5 GHz) have been carried out using an open−resonator probe. Density was also measured for the same samples. The experimental results confirmed the well−known dependence of the real part of permittivity ε′ on depth and density, showing an increase of ε′ with density. The imaginary part also increases with depth with a rather complex dependence on frequency, probably due to the presence of salts or impurities. The analysis of the experimental data was performed by implementing 3D and 2D full wave numerical models, to simulate a mixture of firn crystals at prescribed densities, corresponding to the measured densities on the ice cores. The numerical analysis of the ensemble of inclusions showed that the usual symmetric formulae used for modeling ice dielectric properties agree with the average results of the simulation, but they are not able to explain the spreading of the measured data at given density. A dielectric model was then developed allowing for quantification of the dependence of dielectric properties on density, by combining two models: one consisting in firn crystals into an air host, the other assuming the presence of air inclusions into a homogeneous firn host. The weighted equation is based on the volume fraction. A simple geometric shape (ellipsoidal) is assumed for both ice crystals and air inclusions. This kind of shape is reasonable for the purpose of the dielectric study. The result is a mixture, smoothly changing from firn particles in air (low density) to air bubbles in an ice matrix (high density). A statistical analysis has been accomplished to investigate the dependence of the dielectric properties on the geometrical arrangement of the inclusions. For that purpose, a large number of simulations with different arrangements (micro−states) giving rise to the same average density (macro−states) has been carried out. The permittivity change due to micro−state variability appears to be at least two−three times the model variation due to density alone, and comparable to the measured variability at a given depth, suggesting that firn structure has a significant effect on the dielectric properties.

Abstract: Radar altimeters are important tools to monitor the volume of the ice sheets. The penetration of radar waves in the snowpack is a major source of uncertainty to retrieve surface elevation. To correct this effect, a better understanding of the sensitivity of the radar waveforms to snow properties is needed. Here, we present an extension of the Snow Model Radiative Transfer (SMRT) to compute radar waveforms and conduct a series of simulations on the Antarctic ice sheet. SMRT is driven by snow and surface roughness properties measured over a large latitudinal range during two field campaigns on the Antarctic Plateau. These measurements show that the snowpack is rougher, denser, less stratified, warmer, and has smaller snow grains near the coast than on the central Plateau. These simulations are compared to satellite observations in the Ka, Ku, and S bands. SMRT reproduces the observed waveforms well. For all sites and all sensors, the main contribution comes from the surface echo. The echo from snow grains (volume scattering) represents up to 40% of the amplitude of the total waveform power in the Ka band, and less at the lower frequencies. The highest amplitude is observed on the central Plateau due to the combination of higher reflection from the surface, higher scattering by snow grains in the Ka and Ku bands, and higher inter-layer reflections in the S band. In the Ka band, the wave penetrates in the snowpack less deeply on the central Plateau than near the coast because of the strong scattering caused by the larger snow grains. The opposite is observed in the S band, the wave penetrates deeper on the central Plateau because of the lower absorption due to the lower snow temperatures. The elevation bias caused by wave penetration into the snowpack show a constant bias of 10 cm for all sites in the Ka band, and a bias of 11 cm, and 21 cm in the Ku band for sites close to the coast and the central Plateau, respectively. Now that SMRT is performing waveform simulations, further work will address how the snowpack properties affect the parameters retrieved by more advanced retracking algorithms such as ICE-2 for different snow cover surfaces.

Abstract: The Kerguelen Islands are part of the French Southern Territories, located at the limit of the Indian and Southern oceans. They are highly impacted by climate change, and coastal marine areas are particularly at risk. Assessing the responses of species and populations to environmental change is challenging in such areas for which ecological modelling can constitute a helpful approach. In the present work, a DEB-IBM model (Dynamic Energy Budget – Individual-Based Model) was generated to simulate and predict population dynamics in an endemic and common benthic species of shallow marine habitats of the Kerguelen Islands, the sea urchin Abatus cordatus. The model relies on a dynamic energy budget model (DEB) developed at the individual level. Upscaled to an individual-based population model (IBM), it then enables to model population dynamics through time as a result of individual physiological responses to environmental variations. The model was successfully built for a reference site to simulate the response of populations to variations in food resources and temperature. Then, it was implemented to model population dynamics at other sites and for the different IPCC climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Under present-day conditions, models predict a more determinant effect of food resources on population densities, and on juvenile densities in particular, relative to temperature. In contrast, simulations predict a sharp decline in population densities under conditions of IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 with a determinant effect of water warming leading to the extinction of most vulnerable populations after a 30-year simulation time due to high mortality levels associated with peaks of high temperatures. Such a dynamic model is here applied for the first time to a Southern Ocean benthic and brooding species and offers interesting prospects for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic biodiversity research. It could constitute a useful tool to support conservation studies in these remote regions where access and bio-monitoring represent challenging issues.

Abstract: Benthic life in the Southern Ocean (SO) features unique life history traits and species assemblages, but the origin and evolution of many of these taxonomic groups is still unclear. Sea stars (Asteroidea) are a diversified and abundant component of benthic ecosystems in the SO, in which they can play key ecological roles. Former studies suggest that the diversity of the entire class is still poorly known and underestimated, hampering the assessment of the origin and evolution of the class in the SO. In the present study, we analyse spatial patterns of SO sea star diversity using an occurrence database of ~14,000 entries. The biogeographic analysis is coupled with the exploration of an extensive molecular phylogeny based on over 4,400 specimen sequences to inform, support and/or question the observed diversity patterns. We show that the current taxonomy of SO asteroids needs revision and that their diversity has generally been overlooked and misinterpreted. Molecular results highlight the recent diversification of most studied taxa, at genus and species levels, which supports an evolutionary scenario referring to successive invasion and exchange events between the SO and adjacent regions, and clade diversification during periods of rapid environmental changes driven by the succession of glacial cycles. Our work advocates for employing, and endorsing the use of extensive genetic barcode libraries for biodiversity studies.

Abstract: The potential for biological colonization of Antarctic shores is an increasingly important topic in the context of anthropogenic warming. Successful Antarctic invasions to date have been recorded exclusively from terrestrial habitats. While non-native marine species such as crabs, mussels and tunicates have already been reported from Antarctic coasts, none have as yet established there. Among the potential marine invaders of Antarctic shallow waters is Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775), a crab with a circum-Subantarctic distribution and substantial larval dispersal capacity. An ovigerous female of this species was found in shallow waters of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands in 2010. A combination of physiological experiments and ecological modelling was used to assess the potential niche of H. planatus and estimate its future southward boundaries under climate change scenarios. We show that H. planatus has a minimum thermal limit of 1°C, and that its current distribution (assessed by sampling and niche modelling) is physiologically restricted to the Subantarctic region. While this species is presently unable to survive in Antarctica, future warming under both ‘strong mitigation’ and ‘no mitigation’ greenhouse gas emission scenarios will favour its niche expansion to the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) by 2100. Future human activity also has potential to increase the probability of anthropogenic translocation of this species into Antarctic ecosystems.