Ghislain Picard, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Alison F. Banwell, Ludovic Brucker, Giovanni Macelloni. (2022). The sensitivity of satellite microwave observations to liquid water in the Antarctic snowpack (Vol. 16).
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. (2022). The Traill island model for lemming dynamics, how it compares to Fennoscandian vole dynamics models, and a proposed simplification (Vol. 2205.09441).
Abstract: The Traill island model of Gilg et al. (2003) is a landmark attempt at mechanistic modelling of the cyclic population dynamics of rodents, focusing on a high Arctic community. It models the dynamics of one prey, the collared lemming, and four predators : the stoat, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua and the snowy owl. In the present short note, we first summarize how the model works in light of theory on seasonally forced predator-prey systems, with a focus on the temporal dynamics of predation rates. We show notably how the impact of generalist predation, which is able here to initiate population declines, differs slightly from that of generalist predation in other mechanistic models of rodent-mustelid interactions such as Turchin & Hanski (1997). We then provide a low-dimensional approximation with a single generalist predator compartment that mimics the essential features of the Traill island model: cycle periodicity, amplitude, shape, as well as generalist-induced declines. This simpler model should be broadly applicable to model other lemming populations that predominantly grow under the snow during the winter period. Matlab computer codes for Gilg et al. (2003), its two-dimensional approximation, as well as alternative lemming population dynamics models are provided.
Keywords: Quantitative Biology – Populations and Evolution
Programme: 1036
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Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Kaitlin A. Naughten. (2022). The Whole Antarctic Ocean Model (WAOM v1.0): development and evaluation (Vol. 15).
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. (2022). TOI-712: A System of Adolescent Mini-Neptunes Extending to the Habitable Zone (Vol. 164).
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. (2022). Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget (Vol. 13).
Keywords: Atmospheric dynamics Climate and Earth system modelling Cryospheric science Ecosystem ecology Phenology
Programme: 1042
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Jonathan Rae, Colin Forsyth, Malcolm Dunlop, Minna Palmroth, Mark Lester, Reiner Friedel, Geoff Reeves, Larry Kepko, Lucille Turc, Clare Watt, Wojciech Hajdas, Theodoros Sarris, Yoshifumi Saito, Ondrej Santolik, Yuri Shprits, Chi Wang, Aurelie Marchaudon, Matthieu Berthomier, Octav Marghitu, Benoit Hubert, Martin Volwerk, Elena A. Kronberg, Ian Mann, Kyle Murphy, David Miles, Zhonghua Yao, Andrew Fazakerley, Jasmine Sandhu, Hayley Allison, Quanqi Shi. (2022). What are the fundamental modes of energy transfer and partitioning in the coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system? (Vol. 54).
Keywords: Earth Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling Space missions Voyage 2050
Programme: 312
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. (2022). When the going gets tough, the tough get going: Effect of extreme climate on an Antarctic seabird's life history (Vol. 25).
Abstract: Individuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age. It is tempting to attribute these differences in outcomes to differences in individual traits, and thus in the demographic rates experienced. However, there is more to individual variation than meets the eye of the biologist. Even among individuals sharing identical traits, life history outcomes (life expectancy and lifetime reproduction) will vary due to individual stochasticity, that is to chance. Quantifying the contributions of heterogeneity and chance is essential to understand natural variability. Interindividual differences vary across environmental conditions, hence heterogeneity and stochasticity depend on environmental conditions. We show that favourable conditions increase the contributions of individual stochasticity, and reduce the contributions of heterogeneity, to variance in demographic outcomes in a seabird population. The opposite is true under poor conditions. This result has important consequence for understanding the ecology and evolution of life history strategies.
Keywords: fixed heterogeneity frailty individual quality individual stochasticity SICs unobserved individual heterogeneity
Programme: 109
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Samara Danel, Nancy Rebout, Francesco Bonadonna, Dora Biro. (2022). Wild skuas can follow human-given behavioural cues when objects resemble natural food (Vol. 26).
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. (2022). Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions (Vol. 28). Bachelor's thesis, , .
Keywords: Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling
Programme: 688,1044
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Gilg, O., Hansen, L.H., Schmidt, N.M., Lang, J., Sittler, B., Sokolov, A., Sokolova, N., Fufachev, I., Ehrich, D., Forin-Wiart, M.-A., Bédard, A., Lecomte, N., Sabard, B., Pletenev, A., Gilg, V., Sabard, C., Meyer, N., Berteaux, D. & Bollache, L. (2022). Predator-prey interactions between the arctic fox and tundra nesting birds in space and time: first results of an ongoing circumpolar initiative.
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