Abstract: Understanding the demographic responses of wild animal populations to different factors is fundamental to make reliable prediction of population dynamics. Both bottom–up processes and top–down regulation operate in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, but their relative contribution remains insufficiently known. In addition, direct weather effects on demographic rates have been overlooked in marine ecosystems and inferences on the demographic effects of environmental drivers were overwhelmingly made from single study sites. Here, we evaluate the relative effects of bottom–up, top–down and weather processes on four vital rates and on population growth rates of a long-lived seabird, the snow petrel Pagodroma nivea, within three different breeding colonies. We used multistate capture–recapture modelling and perturbation analyses from a matrix population model based on a 36-year-long (1981–2017) individual monitoring dataset to quantify the different drivers (predation, climatic and weather covariates) of probabilities of survival, breeding, hatching and fledging according to colony, sex and breeding status of individuals. Results show that bottom–up forces and local weather affected breeding parameters, and that survival was driven by top–down regulation pressure and bottom–up processes. Breeding parameters differed between colonies and survival was sex-specific. Sensitivity analysis revealed that population regulation was mainly driven by bottom–up processes and that top–down processes played a minor role. However, there were major differences between colonies about the importance of how local weather processes affected population growth rate. Our study brings new insights into the drivers of demographic processes in a marine meso-predator, and how these drivers vary according to colonies and individual characteristics. We emphasize the importance of considering multiple study sites to make robust inferences on the effects of environmental drivers on wildlife demography. More generally, robust conclusions about the importance of environmental drivers on demography rely on considering multiple causal effects at multiple sites, while accounting for individual characteristics.

Abstract: Subsequent to their introduction in the 1950s, Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus have been able to establish a self-sustaining population that has adapted to the unique conditions of the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands. Here, 48 individuals (198–415 mm) were caught with gillnets and their basic biology and feeding ecology were examined using stable isotope analysis. The Lac des Fougères population split use of littoral and pelagic resources evenly, although larger fish relied more heavily on littoral production and appear to follow the size-dependent life history habitat template seen in many Scandinavian lakes where smaller sized individuals occupy the pelagic zone and larger individuals dominate the littoral habitat. In Kerguelen, Arctic charr mature at the same ages (5.6 years) as Arctic charr in both sub-Arctic and Arctic lakes. Although mortality was average in comparison to comparator sub-Arctic lakes, it was high in comparison to Arctic lakes. Maximal age (>7+) was at the lower end of the range typically seen in sub-Arctic lakes. Although they inhabit a resource-poor environment, Kerguelen Arctic charr showed no evidence of cannibalism. Thus, while Arctic charr can survive and reproduce in the relatively unproductive Kerguelen lake environments, survival and growth nevertheless appear to be traded off against survival and longevity. The uniqueness of the population location and the recency of its introduction suggest that further monitoring of the population has the potential to yield valuable insights into both the adaptability of the species and its likely responses to ongoing large-scale environmental change as represented by climate change.

Abstract: Aim In migratory species, individuals often use fixed and individual-specific migration strategies, which we term individual migration strategy fidelity (IMSF). Our goal was to test if guillemots have flexible or fixed individual migration strategies (i.e. IMSF), if this behaviour is consistent across large parts of the genus’ range and if they were philopatric to geographical sites or a habitat feature. Location North Atlantic. Taxon Uria spp. Methods We quantified consistent individual differences in inter-annual spatial distribution and habitat occupied throughout the non-breeding period using a large geolocator tracking dataset of 729 adult seabirds breeding at 13 colonies across the Northeast Atlantic and repeatedly tracked up to 7 years over a 9-year period. Additionally, we used a similarity index to calculate relative fidelity to either geographical sites or habitats and linear mixed-effects models to assess persistence of spatial site fidelity over multiple years. Results Both guillemot species exhibited IMSF across a large part of the genus’ range which persisted over multiple years. Individuals of both species and almost all colonies showed fidelity to geographical sites and not to specific habitats. Main conclusions Guillemots show IMSF that is best explained by site familiarity (fidelity to specific sites) rather than habitat specialization (fidelity to specific habitats). In the context of rapidly changing environments, favourable habitats may permanently shift locations and hence species displaying IMSF driven by site familiarity—such as the genus Uria—may not be able to adjust their migration strategies sufficiently fast to sustain individual fitness and ensure population persistence.

Abstract: Seabirds rarely cross major terrestrial barriers during seasonal migration, possibly because they have a limited ability to build up fat stores. For the first time, we tracked two Ivory Gulls with GPS loggers during spring migration from the wintering area in Davis Strait to the breeding colony in north-east Greenland. While one bird migrated in March around the southern tip of Greenland, the other delayed migration until May and crossed the Greenland icecap north of 70°N, covering 1345 km in 29 h. Several aspects of the crossing were noteworthy: the track was remarkably direct, the bird made several stops (totalling 6 h) on the icecap, and the bird increased its flying altitude to nearly 3000 m over West Greenland and > 4000 m over East Greenland.

Abstract: Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.