Abstract: We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodytes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ?50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.

Abstract: GPS data dedicated to sea surface observation are usually processed using differential techniques. Unfortunately, the precision of resulting kinematic positions is baseline-length dependent. So, high precision sea surface observations using differential GPS techniques are limited to coasts, lakes, and rivers. Recent improvements in GPS satellite products (orbits, clocks, and phase biases) make phase ambiguity fixing at the zero difference level achievable and opens up the observation of the sea surface without geographical constraints. This paper recalls the concept of the Integer Precise Point Positioning technique and discusses the precision of GPS buoy positioning. A sequential version of the GINS software has been implemented to achieve single epoch GPS positioning. We used 1 Hz data from a two week GPS campaign conducted in the Kerguelen Islands. A GPS buoy has been moored close to a radar gauge and 90 m away from a permanent GPS station. This infrastructure offers the opportunity to compare both kinematic Integer Precise Point Positioning and classical differential GPS positioning techniques to in situ radar gauge data. We found that Precise Point Positioning results are not significantly biased with respect to radar gauge data and that horizontal time series are consistent with differential processing at the sub-centimetre precision level. Nevertheless, standard deviations of height time series with respect to radar gauge data are typically [45] cm. The dominant driver for noise at this level is attributed to errors in tropospheric estimates which propagate into position solutions.