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Author |
Santin-Janin Hugues, Hugueny Bernard, Aubry Philippe, Fouchet David, Gimenez Olivier, Pontier Dominique, |
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Title |
Accounting for Sampling Error When Inferring Population Synchrony from Time-Series Data: A Bayesian State-Space Modelling Approach with Applications
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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PLoS ONE |
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Volume |
9 |
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1 |
Pages |
e87084- |
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Abstract |
Background Data collected to inform time variations in natural population size are tainted by sampling error. Ignoring sampling error in population dynamics models induces bias in parameter estimators, e.g., density-dependence. In particular, when sampling errors are independent among populations, the classical estimator of the synchrony strength (zero-lag correlation) is biased downward. However, this bias is rarely taken into account in synchrony studies although it may lead to overemphasizing the role of intrinsic factors (e.g., dispersal) with respect to extrinsic factors (the Moran effect) in generating population synchrony as well as to underestimating the extinction risk of a metapopulation. Methodology/Principal findingsThe aim of this paper was first to illustrate the extent of the bias that can be encountered in empirical studies when sampling error is neglected. Second, we presented a space-state modelling approach that explicitly accounts for sampling error when quantifying population synchrony. Third, we exemplify our approach with datasets for which sampling variance (i) has been previously estimated, and (ii) has to be jointly estimated with population synchrony. Finally, we compared our results to those of a standard approach neglecting sampling variance. We showed that ignoring sampling variance can mask a synchrony pattern whatever its true value and that the common practice of averaging few replicates of population size estimates poorly performed at decreasing the bias of the classical estimator of the synchrony strength. Conclusion/SignificanceThe state-space model used in this study provides a flexible way of accurately quantifying the strength of synchrony patterns from most population size data encountered in field studies, including over-dispersed count data. We provided a user-friendly R-program and a tutorial example to encourage further studies aiming at quantifying the strength of population synchrony to account for uncertainty in population size estimates.
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279 |
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Public Library of Science |
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1932-6203 |
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yes |
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5004 |
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Title |
Evidence for Sex-Segregated Ocean Distributions of First-Winter Wandering Albatrosses at Crozet Islands
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
PLoS ONE |
Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
9 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
e86779- |
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Abstract |
The highly mobile wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) are adapted to navigate the extreme environment of the Southern Ocean and return to isolated islands to breed. Each year they cover several hundreds of thousands of kilometers during travels across the sea. Little is known about the dispersal flights and migration of young albatrosses. We tracked, by satellite telemetry, the departure dispersal of 13 juvenile wandering albatrosses from the Crozet Islands and compared them with tracks of 7 unrelated adults during the interbreeding season. We used the satellite tracks to identify different behavioural steps of the inherited migration program used by juvenile wandering albatrosses during their first solo-migration. Our results show that the juvenile wandering albatrosses from Crozet Islands moved to sex-specific foraging zones of the ocean using at departures selectively the wind. The results suggest that the inherited migration program used by the juvenile wandering albatrosses encode several distinct steps, based on inherited preferred departure routes, differences in migration distance between sexes, and selective use of winds. During long transportation flights the albatrosses were influenced by winds and both adult and juveniles followed approximate loxodrome (rhumbline) routes coinciding with the foraging zone and the specific latitudes of their destination areas. During the long segments of transportation flights across open seas the juveniles selected routes at more northerly latitudes than adults.
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109 |
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Public Library of Science |
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1932-6203 |
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yes |
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5039 |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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PLoS ONE |
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9 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
e85291- |
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388 |
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Public Library of Science |
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1932-6203 |
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yes |
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5365 |
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Title |
Soil Calcium Availability Influences Shell Ecophenotype Formation in the Sub-Antarctic Land Snail, Notodiscus hookeri
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
PLoS ONE |
Abbreviated Journal |
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8 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
e84527- |
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Ecophenotypes reflect local matches between organisms and their environment, and show plasticity across generations in response to current living conditions. Plastic responses in shell morphology and shell growth have been widely studied in gastropods and are often related to environmental calcium availability, which influences shell biomineralisation. To date, all of these studies have overlooked micro-scale structure of the shell, in addition to how it is related to species responses in the context of environmental pressure. This study is the first to demonstrate that environmental factors induce a bi-modal variation in the shell micro-scale structure of a land gastropod. Notodiscus hookeri is the only native land snail present in the Crozet Archipelago (sub-Antarctic region). The adults have evolved into two ecophenotypes, which are referred to here as MS (mineral shell) and OS (organic shell). The MS-ecophenotype is characterised by a thick mineralised shell. It is primarily distributed along the coastline, and could be associated to the presence of exchangeable calcium in the clay minerals of the soils. The Os-ecophenotype is characterised by a thin organic shell. It is primarily distributed at high altitudes in the mesic and xeric fell-fields in soils with large particles that lack clay and exchangeable calcium. Snails of the Os-ecophenotype are characterised by thinner and larger shell sizes compared to snails of the MS- ecophenotype, indicating a trade-off between mineral thickness and shell size. This pattern increased along a temporal scale; whereby, older adult snails were more clearly separated into two clusters compared to the younger adult snails. The prevalence of glycine-rich proteins in the organic shell layer of N. hookeri, along with the absence of chitin, differs to the organic scaffolds of molluscan biominerals. The present study provides new insights for testing the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity in response to spatial and temporal environmental variations.
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136 |
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Public Library of Science |
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1932-6203 |
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yes |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
4685 |
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Title |
Interactions between Snow Chemistry, Mercury Inputs and Microbial Population Dynamics in an Arctic Snowpack
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Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
PLoS ONE |
Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
8 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
e79972- |
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399 |
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Public Library of Science |
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1932-6203 |
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yes |
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4861 |
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Author |
Chambers Lynda E, Altwegg Res, Barbraud Christophe, Barnard Phoebe, Beaumont Linda J, Crawford Robert J M, Durant Joel M, Hughes Lesley, Keatley Marie R, Low Matt, Morellato Patricia C, Poloczanska Elvira S, Ruoppolo Valeria, Vanstreels Ralph E T, Woehler Eric J, Wolfaardt Anton C, |
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Title |
Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
PLoS ONE |
Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
8 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
e75514- |
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Abstract |
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.
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109 |
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Public Library of Science |
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1932-6203 |
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yes |
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Serial |
4749 |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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PLoS ONE |
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Volume |
8 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
e74154- |
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131 |
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Public Library of Science |
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1932-6203 |
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4681 |
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2013 |
Publication |
PLOS ONE |
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Volume |
8 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
e74154 |
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Keywords |
Birds Body temperature Gene expression Mitochondria Muscle biochemistry Penguins Skeletal muscles Thermogenesis |
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131 |
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1932-6203 |
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1932-6203 |
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7217 |
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Title |
Sympatric Breeding Auks Shift between Dietary and Spatial Resource Partitioning across the Annual Cycle
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
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PLOS ONE |
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Volume |
8 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
e72987 |
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388 |
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1932-6203 |
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4540 |
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Title |
A Space Oddity: Geographic and Specific Modulation of Migration in Eudyptes Penguins
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
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PLOS ONE |
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Volume |
8 |
Issue |
8 |
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394 |
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1932-6203 |
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yes |
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Call Number |
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4481 |
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