Abstract: Infectious diseases may be particularly critical for the conservation of endangered species. A striking example is the recurrent outbreaks that have been occurring in seabirds on Amsterdam Island for the past 30 years, threatening populations of three Endangered seabird species and of the endemic, Critically Endangered Amsterdam albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis. The bacteria Pasteurella multocida (avian cholera causative agent), and to a lesser extent Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae (erysipelas causative agent), were both suspected to be responsible for these epidemics. Despite this critical situation, demographic trends were not available for these threatened populations, and the occurrence and characterization of potential causative agents of epizootics remain poorly known. The aims of the current study were to (i) provide an update of population trends for four threatened seabird species monitored on Amsterdam Island, (ii) assess the occurrence of P. multocida, and E. rhusiopathiae in live birds from five species, (iii) search for other infectious agents in these samples and, (iv) isolate and genotype the causative agent(s) of epizooties from dead birds. Our study shows that the demographic situation has worsened substantially in three seabird species during the past decade, with extremely low reproductive success and declining populations for Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses Thalassarche carteri, sooty albatrosses Phoebetria fusca, and northern rockhopper penguins Eudyptes moseleyi. Pasteurella multocida or E. rhusiopathiae were detected by PCR in live birds of all five investigated species, while results were negative for eight additional infectious agents. A single strain of P. multocida was repeatedly cultured from dead birds, while no E. rhusiopathiae could be isolated. These results highlight the significance of P. multocida in this particular eco-epidemiological system as the main agent responsible for epizootics. The study stresses the urgent need to implement mitigation measures to alter the course of avian cholera outbreaks threatening the persistence of seabird populations on Amsterdam Island.

Abstract:

Metapopulation dynamics over the course of an invasion are usually difficult to grasp because they require large and reliable data collection, often unavailable. The invasion of the fish-free freshwater ecosystems of the remote sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands following man-made introductions of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in the 1950's is an exception to this rule. Benefiting from a full long term environmental research monitoring of the invasion, we built a Bayesian dynamic metapopulation model to analyze the invasion dynamics of 85 river systems over 51 years. The model accounted for patch size (river length and connections to lakes), alternative dispersal pathways between rivers, temporal trends in dynamics, and uncertainty in colonization date. The results show that the model correctly represents the observed pattern of invasion, especially if we assume a coastal dispersal pathway between patches. Landscape attributes such as patch size influenced the colonization function, but had no effect on propagule pressure. Independently from patch size and distance between patches, propagule pressure and colonization function were not constant through time. Propagule pressure increased over the course of colonization, whereas the colonization function decreased, conditional on propagule pressure. The resulting pattern of this antagonistic interplay is an initial rapid invasion phase followed by a strong decrease in the invasion rate. These temporal trends may be due to either adaptive processes or environmental gradients encountered along the colonization front. It was not possible to distinguish these two hypotheses. Because invasibility of Kerguelen Is. freshwater ecosystems is very high due to the lack of a pre-existing fish fauna and minimal human interference, our estimates of invasion dynamics represent a blueprint for the potential of brown trout invasiveness in pristine environments. Our conclusions shed light on the future of polar regions where, because of climate change, fish-free ecosystems become increasingly accessible to invasion by fish species.