Abstract: The accurate prediction of tides is vital for the operation of many industries, early warning of coastal flooding and scientific understanding of ocean processes. In this paper, we describe the creation method of a global dataset of tidal harmonics using NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) for the first time and an offline objective analysis scheme. Data are assimilated as part of a post-processing step, reducing the computational resources required. A reduced ensemble of tidal harmonics is generated, where each member is run for a shorter period of time than a central background state. This ensemble is used to estimate a single background covariance state, which is used for analysis. Output is validated using an ensemble of objective analyses. For each ensemble member, random selections of observations are omitted and validation is performed at these locations. Improvements in both Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and correlation coefficients (R2) are seen across all 6 of the largest diurnal and semi-diurnal constituents. MAEs in amplitude and phase are reduced by up to 78% and 89%, respectively, and correlations by as much as 0.14. In addition, the majority of locations (between 70 and 80%) see significant improvement.

Abstract: Invasions constitute a major driver of biodiversity changes. Insular plant communities are particularly vulnerable to invasions and are relevant models for investigating mechanisms supporting the establishment and spread of introduced plants. Terrestrial flora of sub-Antarctic islands must often thrive in highly windy habitats, thus imposing strong mechanical constraints on individuals. Many alien plants at the sub-Antarctic islands are of tropical or temperate origins, where they were exposed to less stringent wind conditions. As wind likely represents a strong environmental filter for the successful establishment and further geographic spread of plants, they should have developed responses to resist and successfully colonize the Iles Kerguelen. We studied responses to wind of three herbaceous species that are invasive at Iles Kerguelen. We sampled plant individuals at different locations, under windy and sheltered conditions. Traits related to wind avoidance and tolerance and to resource acquisition were measured. We additionally assessed individual performance (biomass) to determine the consequences of trait variations. We focused on trait mean and variance, in particular, through the calculation of hypervolumes. This study emphasized that wind has important effects on plant economics spectrum, including traits involved in mechanical avoidance and light acquisition, with varying strategies, which seem to depend on the biological type of the species (grass versus non-grass). Wind generally reduces individual performance, and this negative effect is not direct but operates through the modification of plant trait values. Furthermore, analyses performed at the hypervolume scale indicate that not only functional trait mean but also its variability account for plant performance. The existence of contrasting growth strategies to cope with local environmental conditions suggests that invaders will be able to occupy different niches, which may ultimately impact local communities. Our results highlight the importance of considering multi-traits responses to meaningfully capture plant adjustments to stress.

Abstract: The reproductive success of birds is strongly driven by environmental conditions at different time scales. Thus, during periods of low food availability, breeding success is constrained by the ability of adults to adapt their foraging effort and feeding behaviour to maintain regular incubation shifts and chick provisioning. However, while large seabirds can buffer disruptions in prey availability, the ecophysiological constraints of smaller species may limit their behavioural flexibility. By combining information on at-sea movements, foraging habitat, trophic niche, and breeding success, this study evaluated the effects of intense variability in oceanographic conditions on common diving petrels (Pelecanoides urinatrix) at the northern extent of their range in south-eastern Australia during four consecutive breeding seasons. Unusually low breeding success (6 and 0%) was observed during two years with intense heatwave events, which were associated with higher foraging effort (foraging trips twice longer) and a substantial shift in trophic niche (lower blood ?15N values). These findings suggest that common diving petrels in Bass Strait may have reached a critical threshold above which buffering the effects of environmental variability on their reproductive output is not possible. The clear cascading impacts that marine heatwaves have on zooplankton feeders illustrate the profound bottom-up effect induced by such extreme environmental variations, and suggest strong impact on higher-trophic levels. The wide, circumpolar breeding distribution of the common diving petrel, and its high sensitivity to variations in oceanographic conditions, suggest that this species may be a suitable model to study short-term and long-term behavioural responses to the effects of climate change throughout the Southern Ocean.