Abstract: Benthic life in the Southern Ocean (SO) features unique life history traits and species assemblages, but the origin and evolution of many of these taxonomic groups is still unclear. Sea stars (Asteroidea) are a diversified and abundant component of benthic ecosystems in the SO, in which they can play key ecological roles. Former studies suggest that the diversity of the entire class is still poorly known and underestimated, hampering the assessment of the origin and evolution of the class in the SO. In the present study, we analyse spatial patterns of SO sea star diversity using an occurrence database of ~14,000 entries. The biogeographic analysis is coupled with the exploration of an extensive molecular phylogeny based on over 4,400 specimen sequences to inform, support and/or question the observed diversity patterns. We show that the current taxonomy of SO asteroids needs revision and that their diversity has generally been overlooked and misinterpreted. Molecular results highlight the recent diversification of most studied taxa, at genus and species levels, which supports an evolutionary scenario referring to successive invasion and exchange events between the SO and adjacent regions, and clade diversification during periods of rapid environmental changes driven by the succession of glacial cycles. Our work advocates for employing, and endorsing the use of extensive genetic barcode libraries for biodiversity studies.

Abstract: Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.

Abstract: In the 2019/2020 austral summer, the surface melt duration and extent on the northern George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) was exceptional compared to the 31 previous summers of distinctly lower melt. This finding is based on analysis of near-continuous 41-year satellite microwave radiometer and scatterometer data, which are sensitive to meltwater on the ice shelf surface and in the near-surface snow. Using optical satellite imagery from Landsat 8 (2013 to 2020) and Sentinel-2 (2017 to 2020), record volumes of surface meltwater ponding were also observed on the northern GVIIS in 2019/2020, with 23 % of the surface area covered by 0.62 km³ of ponded meltwater on 19 January. These exceptional melt and surface ponding conditions in 2019/2020 were driven by sustained air temperatures ?0 ^?C for anomalously long periods (55 to 90 h) from late November onwards, which limited meltwater refreezing. The sustained warm periods were likely driven by warm, low-speed (?7.5 m s^?1) northwesterly and northeasterly winds and not by foehn wind conditions, which were only present for 9 h total in the 2019/2020 melt season. Increased surface ponding on ice shelves may threaten their stability through increased potential for hydrofracture initiation; a risk that may increase due to firn air content depletion in response to near-surface melting.