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. (2022). When the going gets tough, the tough get going: Effect of extreme climate on an Antarctic seabird's life history (Vol. 25).
Abstract: Individuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age. It is tempting to attribute these differences in outcomes to differences in individual traits, and thus in the demographic rates experienced. However, there is more to individual variation than meets the eye of the biologist. Even among individuals sharing identical traits, life history outcomes (life expectancy and lifetime reproduction) will vary due to individual stochasticity, that is to chance. Quantifying the contributions of heterogeneity and chance is essential to understand natural variability. Interindividual differences vary across environmental conditions, hence heterogeneity and stochasticity depend on environmental conditions. We show that favourable conditions increase the contributions of individual stochasticity, and reduce the contributions of heterogeneity, to variance in demographic outcomes in a seabird population. The opposite is true under poor conditions. This result has important consequence for understanding the ecology and evolution of life history strategies.
Keywords: fixed heterogeneity frailty individual quality individual stochasticity SICs unobserved individual heterogeneity
Programme: 109
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Jonathan Rae, Colin Forsyth, Malcolm Dunlop, Minna Palmroth, Mark Lester, Reiner Friedel, Geoff Reeves, Larry Kepko, Lucille Turc, Clare Watt, Wojciech Hajdas, Theodoros Sarris, Yoshifumi Saito, Ondrej Santolik, Yuri Shprits, Chi Wang, Aurelie Marchaudon, Matthieu Berthomier, Octav Marghitu, Benoit Hubert, Martin Volwerk, Elena A. Kronberg, Ian Mann, Kyle Murphy, David Miles, Zhonghua Yao, Andrew Fazakerley, Jasmine Sandhu, Hayley Allison, Quanqi Shi. (2022). What are the fundamental modes of energy transfer and partitioning in the coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system? (Vol. 54).
Keywords: Earth Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling Space missions Voyage 2050
Programme: 312
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. (2022). Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget (Vol. 13).
Keywords: Atmospheric dynamics Climate and Earth system modelling Cryospheric science Ecosystem ecology Phenology
Programme: 1042
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. (2022). TOI-712: A System of Adolescent Mini-Neptunes Extending to the Habitable Zone (Vol. 164).
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Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Kaitlin A. Naughten. (2022). The Whole Antarctic Ocean Model (WAOM v1.0): development and evaluation (Vol. 15).
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. (2022). The Traill island model for lemming dynamics, how it compares to Fennoscandian vole dynamics models, and a proposed simplification (Vol. 2205.09441).
Abstract: The Traill island model of Gilg et al. (2003) is a landmark attempt at mechanistic modelling of the cyclic population dynamics of rodents, focusing on a high Arctic community. It models the dynamics of one prey, the collared lemming, and four predators : the stoat, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua and the snowy owl. In the present short note, we first summarize how the model works in light of theory on seasonally forced predator-prey systems, with a focus on the temporal dynamics of predation rates. We show notably how the impact of generalist predation, which is able here to initiate population declines, differs slightly from that of generalist predation in other mechanistic models of rodent-mustelid interactions such as Turchin & Hanski (1997). We then provide a low-dimensional approximation with a single generalist predator compartment that mimics the essential features of the Traill island model: cycle periodicity, amplitude, shape, as well as generalist-induced declines. This simpler model should be broadly applicable to model other lemming populations that predominantly grow under the snow during the winter period. Matlab computer codes for Gilg et al. (2003), its two-dimensional approximation, as well as alternative lemming population dynamics models are provided.
Keywords: Quantitative Biology – Populations and Evolution
Programme: 1036
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Ghislain Picard, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Alison F. Banwell, Ludovic Brucker, Giovanni Macelloni. (2022). The sensitivity of satellite microwave observations to liquid water in the Antarctic snowpack (Vol. 16).
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A. Ola, D. Fortier, S. Coulombe, J. Comte, F. Domine. (2022). The Distribution of Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks Among Dominant Geomorphological Terrain Units in Qarlikturvik Valley, Bylot Island, Arctic Canada (Vol. 127).
Abstract: Soils of circumpolar regions store large amounts of carbon (C) and are a crucial part of the global C cycle. Yet, little is known about the distribution of soil C stocks among geomorphological terrain units of glacial valleys in the Arctic. Soil C and nitrogen (N) content for the top 100 cm of the dominant vegetated geomorphological terrain units (i.e., alluvial fans, humid polygons, mesic polygons) at Qarlikturvik Valley, Bylot Island, Canada have been analyzed. Soil C content was greatest in humid low-center ice-wedge polygons (82 kg m?2), followed by mesic flat-center ice-wedge polygons (40 kg m?2), and alluvial fan area (16 kg m?2), due to prevailing geomorphological processes, differences in vegetation and soil characteristics, as well as permafrost processes. Soil N content was greatest in humid polygons (4 kg m?2), followed by mesic polygons (2 kg m?2), and alluvial fan area (1 kg m?2). Vertically, C and N decreased with increasing depth except for a peak in C at depth in humid polygons, a likely result of past changes in vegetation cover. At Qarlikturvik Valley, which has a size of 121.7 km2, alluvial fans store 0.226 Tg organic C and humid and mesic polygons store 1.643 and 0.218 Tg organic C, respectively in the top 100 cm of soil. Findings like these are important to further constrain pan-Arctic soil C and N stock estimates and thus climate models.
Keywords: alluvial fan Arctic permafrost polygon tundra
Programme: 1042
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. (2022). Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species (Vol. 25).
Keywords: capture-recapture demographic correlation demography environmental stochasticity slow-fast continuum stochastic population dynamics temporal covariation
Programme: 109
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. (2022). Sunlight-driven nitrate loss records Antarctic surface mass balance (Vol. 13).
Abstract: Standard proxies for reconstructing surface mass balance (SMB) in Antarctic ice cores are often inaccurate or coarsely resolved when applied to more complicated environments away from dome summits. Here, we propose an alternative SMB proxy based on photolytic fractionation of nitrogen isotopes in nitrate observed at 114 sites throughout East Antarctica. Applying this proxy approach to nitrate in a shallow core drilled at a moderate SMB site (Aurora Basin North), we reconstruct 700 years of SMB changes that agree well with changes estimated from ice core density and upstream surface topography. For the under-sampled transition zones between dome summits and the coast, we show that this proxy can provide past and present SMB values that reflect the immediate local environment and are derived independently from existing techniques.
Keywords: Cryospheric science Environmental chemistry Palaeoclimate
Programme: 1177
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