Abstract: The high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predatorprey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20-year-long time series of population densities for the five species and a dynamic model that has been previously parameterized for northeast Greenland, we analyzed the population and community level consequences of the ongoing and predicted climate change. Species' responses to climate change are complex, because in addition to the direct effects of climate change, which vary depending on species' life histories, species are also affected indirectly due to, e.g., predatorprey interactions. The lemmingpredator community exemplifies these complications, yet a robust conclusion emerges from our modeling: in practically all likely scenarios of how climate change may influence the demography of the species, climate change increases the length of the lemming population cycle and decreases the maximum population densities. The latter change in particular is detrimental to the populations of the predators, which are adapted to make use of the years of the greatest prey abundance. Therefore, climate change will indirectly reduce the predators' reproductive success and population densities, and may ultimately lead to local extinction of some of the predator species. Based on these results, we conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemmingpredator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic.

Abstract: Global tomographic models collected in the Seismic wave Propagation and Imaging in Complex (SPICE media: a European network) model library () share a similar pattern of long, spatial wavelength heterogeneity, but are not consistent at shorter spatial wavelengths. Here, we assess the performance of global tomographic models by comparing how well they fit seismic waveform observations, in particular Love and Rayleigh wave overtones and fundamental modes. We first used the coupled spectral element method (CSEM) to calculate long-period (>100 s) synthetic seismograms for different global tomography models. The CSEM can incorporate the effect of three-dimensional (3-D) variations in velocity, anisotropy, density and attenuation with very little numerical dispersion. We then compared quantitatively synthetic seismograms and real data. To restrict ourselves to high-quality overtone data, and to minimize the effects of the finite extent of seismic sources and of crustal heterogeneity, we favour deep (>500 km) earthquakes of intermediate magnitude (Mw7). Our comparisons reveal that: (1) The 3-D global tomographic models explain the data much better than the one-dimensional (1-D) anisotropic Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). The current 3-D tomographic models have captured the large-scale features of upper-mantle heterogeneities, but there is still some room for the improvement of large-scale features of global tomographic models. (2) The average correlation coefficients for deep events are higher than those for shallow events, because crustal structure is too complex to be completely incorporated into CSEM simulations. (3) The average correlation coefficient (or the time lag) for the major-arc wave trains is lower (or higher) than that for the minor-arc wave trains. Therefore, the current tomographic models could be much improved by including the major-arc wave trains in the inversion. (4) The shallow-layer crustal correction has more effects on the fundamental surface waves than on the overtones.

Abstract: Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long-term data (19852006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub-Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.