Abstract: The Antarctic Treaty System, acknowledged as a successful model of cooperative regulation of one of the globe's largest commons (1), is under substantial pressure. Concerns have been raised about increased stress on Antarctic systems from global environmental change and growing interest in the region's resources (2, 3). Although policy-makers may recognize these challenges, failure to respond in a timely way can have substantial negative consequences. We provide a horizon scan, a systematic means for identifying emerging trends and assisting decision-makers in identifying policies that address future challenges (2, 3). Previous analyses of conservation threats in the Antarctic have been restricted to matters for which available evidence is compelling (4). We reconsider these concerns because they might escalate quickly, judging from recent rapid environmental change in parts of Antarctica and increasing human interest in the region (see the map). We then focus on a more distant time horizon.

Abstract: Ancient genomics of horse domestication The domestication of the horse was a seminal event in human cultural evolution. Librado et al. obtained genome sequences from 14 horses from the Bronze and Iron Ages, about 2000 to 4000 years ago, soon after domestication. They identified variants determining coat color and genes selected during the domestication process. They could also see evidence of admixture with archaic horses and the demography of the domestication process, which included the accumulation of deleterious variants. The horse appears to have undergone a different type of domestication process than animals that were domesticated simply for food. Science, this issue p. 442 The genomic changes underlying both early and late stages of horse domestication remain largely unknown. We examined the genomes of 14 early domestic horses from the Bronze and Iron Ages, dating to between ~4.1 and 2.3 thousand years before present. We find early domestication selection patterns supporting the neural crest hypothesis, which provides a unified developmental origin for common domestic traits. Within the past 2.3 thousand years, horses lost genetic diversity and archaic DNA tracts introgressed from a now-extinct lineage. They accumulated deleterious mutations later than expected under the cost-of-domestication hypothesis, probably because of breeding from limited numbers of stallions. We also reveal that Iron Age Scythian steppe nomads implemented breeding strategies involving no detectable inbreeding and selection for coat-color variation and robust forelimbs. The genomes of 14 ancient horses reveal selection during domestication stages and a recent loss of diversity. The genomes of 14 ancient horses reveal selection during domestication stages and a recent loss of diversity.

Abstract: Arctic shorebirds can travel tens of thousands of kilometers every year as they fly along intercontinental flyways from their southern wintering grounds to their remote, harsh breeding sites. How these birds solve the navigational and physiological constraints has been largely answered, but why they migrate is still a question with many possible answers (1). On page 326 of this issue, McKinnon et al. (2) present a continent-wide study that points to predation as a driving mechanism for migration. The study also elucidates the role of predation in shaping Arctic terrestrial biodiversity. Predation pressure falls with increasing latitude, helping to explain why many birds migrate as far north as the high Arctic. Predation pressure falls with increasing latitude, helping to explain why many birds migrate as far north as the high Arctic.

Abstract: Sampling seabirds The vastness of the worlds' oceans makes them difficult to monitor. Seabirds that forage and breed across oceans globally have been recognized as sentinels of ocean health. Sydeman et al. looked across seabird species of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and found varying patterns. Northern Hemisphere species exhibited greater signs of stress and reduced breeding success, indicative of low fish resources. Southern Hemisphere species showed less impact on reproductive output, suggesting that the fish populations there have thus far been less disturbed. The differences across hemispheres indicate different strategies for conservation, with active recovery needed in the north and enhanced protection in the south. Science, abf1772, this issue p. 980 Climate change and other human activities are causing profound effects on marine ecosystem productivity. We show that the breeding success of seabirds is tracking hemispheric differences in ocean warming and human impacts, with the strongest effects on fish-eating, surface-foraging species in the north. Hemispheric asymmetry suggests the need for ocean management at hemispheric scales. For the north, tactical, climate-based recovery plans for forage fish resources are needed to recover seabird breeding productivity. In the south, lower-magnitude change in seabird productivity presents opportunities for strategic management approaches such as large marine protected areas to sustain food webs and maintain predator productivity. Global monitoring of seabird productivity enables the detection of ecosystem change in remote regions and contributes to our understanding of marine climate impacts on ecosystems. The breeding success of seabirds is tracking hemispheric differences in ocean warming and human impacts. The breeding success of seabirds is tracking hemispheric differences in ocean warming and human impacts.