Abstract: In December 2019, the 13th revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) was released by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group V-MOD. This revision comprises two new spherical harmonic main field models for epochs 2015.0 (DGRF-2015) and 2020.0 (IGRF-2020) and a model of the predicted secular variation for the interval 2020.0 to 2025.0 (SV-2020-2025). The models were produced from candidates submitted by fifteen international teams. These teams were led by the British Geological Survey (UK), China Earthquake Administration (China), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain), University of Colorado Boulder (USA), Technical University of Denmark (Denmark), GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (Germany), Institut de physique du globe de Paris (France), Institut des Sciences de la Terre (France), Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Kyoto University (Japan), University of Leeds (UK), Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (Germany), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (USA), University of Potsdam (Germany), and Université de Strasbourg (France). The candidate models were evaluated individually and compared to all other candidates as well to the mean, median and a robust Huber-weighted model of all candidates. These analyses were used to identify, for example, the variation between the Gauss coefficients or the geographical regions where the candidate models strongly differed. The majority of candidates were sufficiently close that the differences can be explained primarily by individual modeling methodologies and data selection strategies. None of the candidates were so different as to warrant their exclusion from the final IGRF-13. The IAGA V-MOD task force thus voted for two approaches: the median of the Gauss coefficients of the candidates for the DGRF-2015 and IGRF-2020 models and the robust Huber-weighted model for the predictive SV-2020-2025. In this paper, we document the evaluation of the candidate models and provide details of the approach used to derive the final IGRF-13 products. We also perform a retrospective analysis of the IGRF-12 SV candidates over their performance period (2015–2020). Our findings suggest that forecasting secular variation can benefit from combining physics-based core modeling with satellite observations.

Abstract: The Kerguelen Islands are part of the French Southern Territories, located at the limit of the Indian and Southern oceans. They are highly impacted by climate change, and coastal marine areas are particularly at risk. Assessing the responses of species and populations to environmental change is challenging in such areas for which ecological modelling can constitute a helpful approach. In the present work, a DEB-IBM model (Dynamic Energy Budget – Individual-Based Model) was generated to simulate and predict population dynamics in an endemic and common benthic species of shallow marine habitats of the Kerguelen Islands, the sea urchin Abatus cordatus. The model relies on a dynamic energy budget model (DEB) developed at the individual level. Upscaled to an individual-based population model (IBM), it then enables to model population dynamics through time as a result of individual physiological responses to environmental variations. The model was successfully built for a reference site to simulate the response of populations to variations in food resources and temperature. Then, it was implemented to model population dynamics at other sites and for the different IPCC climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Under present-day conditions, models predict a more determinant effect of food resources on population densities, and on juvenile densities in particular, relative to temperature. In contrast, simulations predict a sharp decline in population densities under conditions of IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 with a determinant effect of water warming leading to the extinction of most vulnerable populations after a 30-year simulation time due to high mortality levels associated with peaks of high temperatures. Such a dynamic model is here applied for the first time to a Southern Ocean benthic and brooding species and offers interesting prospects for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic biodiversity research. It could constitute a useful tool to support conservation studies in these remote regions where access and bio-monitoring represent challenging issues.

Abstract: Sea stars (Echinodermata: Asteroidea) are a key component of Southern Ocean benthos, with 16% of the known sea star species living there. In temperate marine environments, sea stars commonly play an important role in food webs, acting as keystone species. However, trophic ecology and functional role of Southern Ocean sea stars are still poorly known, notably due to the scarcity of large-scale studies. Here, we report 24,332 trophic marker (stable isotopes and elemental contents of C, N, and S of tegument and/or tube feet) and biometric (arm length, disk radius, arm to disk ratio) measurements in 2,456 specimens of sea stars. Samples were collected between 12 January 1985 and 8 October 2017 in numerous locations along the Antarctic littoral and subantarctic islands. The spatial scope of the data set covers a significant portion of the Southern Ocean (47.717° S to 86.273° S; 127.767° W to 162.201° E; depth, 6–5,338 m). The data set contains 133 distinct taxa, including 72 currently accepted species spanning 51 genera, 20 families, and multiple feeding guilds/functional groups (suspension feeders, sediment feeders, omnivores, predators of mobile or sessile prey). For 505 specimens, mitochondrial CO1 genes were sequenced to confirm and/or refine taxonomic identifications, and those sequences are already publicly available through the Barcode of Life Data System. This number will grow in the future, as molecular analyses are still in progress. Overall, thanks to its large taxonomic, spatial, and temporal extent, as well as its integrative nature (combining genetic, morphological, and ecological data), this data set can be of wide interest to Southern Ocean ecologists, invertebrate zoologists, benthic ecologists, and environmental managers dealing with associated areas. Please cite this data paper in research products derived from the data set, which is freely available without copyright restrictions.

Abstract: Partitioning resources is a key mechanism for avoiding intraspecific competition and maximizing individual energy gain. However, in sexually dimorphic species it is difficult to discern if partitioning is due to competition or the different resource needs of morphologically distinct individuals. In the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal, there are intersexual differences in habitat use; at Iles Kerguelen, males predominantly use shelf waters, while females use deeper oceanic waters. There are equally marked intrasexual differences, with some males using the nearby Kerguelen Plateau, and others using the much more distant Antarctic continental shelf ( 2,000 km away). We used this combination of inter and intrasexual behavior to test two hypotheses regarding habitat partitioning in highly dimorphic species. (a) that intersexual differences in habitat use will not appear until the seals diverge in body size and (b) that some habitats have higher rates of energy return than others. In particular, that the Antarctic shelf would provide higher energy returns than the Kerguelen Shelf, to offset the greater cost of travel. We quantified the habitat use of 187 southern elephant seals (102 adult females and 85 subadult males). The seals in the two groups were the same size ( 2.4 m) removing the confounding effect of body size. We found that the intersexual differences in habitat use existed before the divergence in body size. Also, we found that the amount of energy gained was the same in all of the major habitats. This suggests that the use of shelf habitats by males is innate, and a trade-off between the need to access the large benthic prey available on shelf waters, against the higher risk of predation there. Intrasexual differences in habitat use are another trade-off; although there are fewer predators on the Antarctic shelf, it is subject to considerable interannual fluctuations in sea-ice extent. In contrast, the Kerguelen Plateau presents more consistent foraging opportunities, but contains higher levels of predation. Habitat partitioning in this highly dimorphic species is therefore the result of complex interplay of life history strategies, environmental conditions and predation pressure.

Abstract: Changes in mass, extent, duration, and physical properties of snow are key elements for studying associated climate change feedbacks in northern regions. In this study, we analyzed snowpack physical properties along a ‘mega’ transect from 47°N to 83°N (4,000 km) in northeastern Canada, which includes marked transitions between ecozones from boreal forest to subarctic and arctic ecosystems. Our unique dataset of 391 detailed snowpits acquired over the last 20 years, complemented with snow data from weather stations, shows that snowpack properties such as snow water equivalent, snow depth, density, grain size and basal depth hoar fraction (DHF) are strongly linked to vegetation type. Based on these results, we propose an updated classification of snow types in three classes: boreal forest snow (47–58°N), tundra snow (58–74°N) and polar desert snow (74–83°N), which is more appropriate to the study area than the general north hemisphere classification commonly used. We also show that shrub presence along the transect contributes to a significant increase in DHF development which contributes most strongly to the thermal insulation properties of the snowpack. Overall, our analysis suggests that snow–vegetation interactions have a positive feedback effect on warming at northern latitudes.