Abstract: Aim In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic (e.g. dynamic energy budget models, DEB) modelling approaches are usually used independently in studies. Using both approaches in integrative, hybrid models could help to better estimate the species potential ecological niche, as mechanistic and correlative models complement each other very well, giving more insights into species potential response to fast-changing environmental conditions. Location The study focusses on the Baie du Morbihan, a silled basin located in the east of the Kerguelen Islands (sub-Antarctic). Methods A hybrid, correlative-mechanistic model was implemented to predict the response of the endemic sea urchin Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876). We compared the performances of classic and integrated approaches to predict A. cordatus distribution according to two dates representing seasonal contrasts. Two integrated approaches were studied and performed by either (1) including the spatial projection of the DEB model as an input layer inside the SDM (‘integrated SDM-DEB’) or (2) using a Bayesian procedure to use DEB model outputs as priors of the SDM (‘integrated Bayesian’ approach). Results Results show higher performances of ‘integrated Bayesian’ approaches to evaluate A. cordatus potential ecological niche compared with ‘classic’ and ‘integrated SDM-DEB’ methods. The influence of environmental conditions on model predictions is further captured with these Bayesian procedures and better highlights the environmental influence on the species-predicted distribution. Model performance is good for the different simulations, and uncertainty in predictions is well-highlighted. Main conclusions The good performances of ‘integrated Bayesian’ approaches to estimate species potential ecological niche opens perspectives for future applications to a broad panel of natural examples, noteworthy for decision-making and conservation management purposes.

Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Abstract: Advice from Avian Influenza experts suggests that there is a high risk that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza will arrive in the Southern Ocean 2022/23-2024/25 austral summers. Since the beginning of 2022, the increasing intensity of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands of seabirds in the Northern Hemisphere, around the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and southern Africa. The SCAR Antarctic Wildlife Health Working Group (AWHWG) is highly concerned about the likely arrival and subsequent impact HPAI H5N1 might have on Southern Ocean wildlife. Due to the heightened risk of HPAI being introduced to Antarctica during the the 2022/23 Austral summer by migrating seabirds, the AWHWG recommends that: People working with or close to wildlife should assume that HPAI will arrive in the sub-Antarctic and Antarctica and take precautions to protect themselves when working around wildlife (including appropriate PPE) and maintain the highest biosecurity to prevent transmission between wildlife aggregations. All National Programmes (NPs) and tourism operators should monitor colonies for signs of H5N1 before approaching, especially in migratory species such as skuas, gulls and giant petrels. Tourists should not enter colonies and high wildlife density areas with suspected HPAI and NPs should conduct risk analysis as to which activities need to continue. A more detailed protocol on how to assess wildlife aggregations for HPAI prior to a visit and what to do if HPAI is detected should be provided to all stakeholders physically present in Antarctica this season. If you detect signs of HPAI, you should report this to your permit issuer. Videos of affected animals are very helpful for experts to help determine whether or not this is HPAI. Operators should refresh themselves with and review all biosecurity and any response guidelines to unusual/mass mortality events. This document aims to: Outline the likely risk to Southern Ocean taxa (a more technical assessment will follow in a separate document). Suggest which risks can be mitigated in light of human activity, transmission into and out of Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic regions through all operators as well as movements between sites within the Southern Ocean (primarily for science and tourism), Start discussion with National Programmes about ongoing monitoring for disease and consequences.

Abstract: Ecologists working with stable isotopes have to deal with complex datasets including temporal and spatial replication, which makes the analysis and the representation of patterns of change challenging, especially at high resolution. Due to the lack of a commonly accepted conceptual framework in stable isotope ecology, the analysis and the graphical representation of stable isotope spatial and temporal dynamics of stable isotope value at the organism or community scale remained in the past often descriptive and qualitative, impeding the quantitative detection of relevant functional patterns. The recent community trajectory analysis (CTA) framework provides more explicit perspectives for the analysis and the visualization of ecological trajectories. Building on CTA, we developed the Stable Isotope Trajectory Analysis (SITA) framework, to analyze the geometric properties of stable isotope trajectories on n-dimensional (n ≥ 2) spaces of analysis defined analogously to the traditional multivariate spaces (Ω) used in community ecology. This approach provides new perspectives into the quantitative analysis of spatio-temporal trajectories in stable isotope spaces (Ωδ) and derived structural and functional dynamics (Ωγ space). SITA allows the calculation of a set of trajectory metrics, based on either trajectory distances or directions, and new graphical representation solutions, both easily performable in an R environment. Here, we illustrate the use of our approach by reanalyzing previously published datasets from marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems. We highlight the insights provided by this new analytic framework at the individual, population, community, and ecosystems levels, and discuss applications, limitations, and development potential.

Abstract: The Antarctic marine environment hosts diversified and highly endemic benthos owing to its unique geologic and climatic history. Current warming trends have increased the urgency of understanding Antarctic species history to predict how environmental changes will impact ecosystem functioning. Antarctic benthic lineages have traditionally been examined under three hypotheses: (1) high endemism and local radiation, (2) emergence of deep-sea taxa through thermohaline circulation, and (3) species migrations across the Polar Front. In this study, we investigated which hypotheses best describe benthic invertebrate origins by examining Antarctic scale worms (Polynoidae). We amassed 691 polynoid sequences from the Southern Ocean and neighboring areas: the Kerguelen and Tierra del Fuego (South America) archipelagos, the Indian Ocean, and waters around New Zealand. We performed phylogenetic reconstructions to identify lineages across geographic regions, aided by mitochondrial markers cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (Cox1) and 16S ribosomal RNA (16S). Additionally, we produced haplotype networks at the species scale to examine genetic diversity, biogeographic separations, and past demography. The Cox1 dataset provided the most illuminating insights into the evolution of polynoids, with a total of 36 lineages identified. Eunoe sp. was present at Tierra del Fuego and Kerguelen, in favor of the latter acting as a migration crossroads. Harmothoe fuligineum, widespread around the Antarctic continent, was also present but isolated at Kerguelen, possibly resulting from historical freeze–thaw cycles. The genus Polyeunoa appears to have diversified prior to colonizing the continent, leading to the co-occurrence of at least three cryptic species around the Southern and Indian Oceans. Analyses identified that nearly all populations are presently expanding following a bottleneck event, possibly caused by habitat reduction from the last glacial episodes. Findings support multiple origins for contemporary Antarctic polynoids, and some species investigated here provide information on ancestral scenarios of (re)colonization. First, it is apparent that species collected from the Antarctic continent are endemic, as the absence of closely related species in the Kerguelen and Tierra del Fuego datasets for most lineages argues in favor of Hypothesis 1 of local origin. Next, Eunoe sp. and H. fuligineum, however, support the possibility of Kerguelen and other sub-Antarctic islands acting as a crossroads for larvae of some species, in support of Hypothesis 3. Finally, the genus Polyeunoa, conversely, is found at depths greater than 150 m and may have a deep origin, in line with Hypothesis 2. These “non endemic” groups, nevertheless, have a distribution that is either north or south of the Antarctic Polar Front, indicating that there is still a barrier to dispersal, even in the deep sea.