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Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Maxime Duphil, Jérôme Lefèvre, Jérôme Aucan, Pierre Lebellegard, Bruce Thomas, Céline Bachelier, David Varillon. (2021). The Mw 7.5 Tadine (Maré, Loyalty Is.) earthquake and related tsunami of December 5, 2018: implications for tsunami hazard assessment in New Caledonia.
Abstract: On The 5th Of December 2018, A Magnitude Mw 7.5 Earthquake Occurred Southeast Of Maré, An Island Of The Loyalty Archipelago, New Caledonia. This Earthquake Is Located At The Junction Between The Plunging Loyalty Ridge And The Southernmost Vanuatu Arc, In A Tectonically Very Active Area Regularly Subjected To Strong Seismic Crises And Events Higher Than Magnitude 7 And Up To 8. Widely Felt In New Caledonia It Has Been Immediately Followed By A Tsunami Warning, Confirmed Shortly After By A First Wave Arrival At The Loyalty Islands Tide Gauges (Maré And Lifou), Then Along The East Coast Of Grande Terre Of New Caledonia And In Several Islands Of The Vanuatu Archipelago. Seafloor Initial Deformation Linked To Tsunami Generation Has Been Modeled With Most Numerical Code Using Earthquake Parameters Available From Seismic Observatories. Then The Wave Propagation Has Been Modeled Using Schism, Another Modelling Code Solving The Shallow Water Equations On An Unstructured Grid Based On A New Regional Dem Of ~180 M Resolution And Allowing Refinement In Many Critical Areas. Finally, The Results Have Been Compared To Tide Gauge Records, Field Observations And Testimonials From 2018. The Arrival Times, Wave Amplitude And Polarities Present Good Similarities, Especially In Far-field Locations (Hienghène, Port-vila And Poindimié). Maximum Wave Heights And Energy Maps For Two Different Scenarios Highlight The Fact That The Orientation Of The Source (Strike Of The Rupture) Played An Important Role, Focusing The Maximum Energy Path Of The Tsunami South Of Grande-terre And The Isle Of Pines. However, Both Scenarios Indicate Similar Propagation Toward Aneityum, Vanuatu Southernmost Island, The Bathymetry Acting Like A Waveguide. This Study Has A Significant Implication In Tsunami Hazard Mitigation In New Caledonia As It Helps To Validate The Modelling Code And Process Used To Prepare A Scenarios Database For Warning And Coastal Evacuation.
Programme: 133
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Emilia Trudnowska, Léo Lacour, Mathieu Ardyna, Andreas Rogge, Jean Olivier Irisson, Anya M. Waite, Marcel Babin, Lars Stemmann. (2021). Marine snow morphology illuminates the evolution of phytoplankton blooms and determines their subsequent vertical export (Vol. 12).
Abstract: The organic carbon produced in the ocean’s surface by phytoplankton is either passed through the food web or exported to the ocean interior as marine snow. The rate and efficiency of such vertical export strongly depend on the size, structure and shape of individual particles, but apart from size, other morphological properties are still not quantitatively monitored. With the growing number of in situ imaging technologies, there is now a great possibility to analyze the morphology of individual marine snow. Thus, automated methods for their classification are urgently needed. Consequently, here we present a simple, objective categorization method of marine snow into a few ecologically meaningful functional morphotypes using field data from successive phases of the Arctic phytoplankton bloom. The proposed approach is a promising tool for future studies aiming to integrate the diversity, composition and morphology of marine snow into our understanding of the biological carbon pump.
Keywords: Carbon cycle Marine biology
Programme: 1164
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David Renault, Eléna Manfrini, Boris Leroy, Christophe Diagne, Liliana Ballesteros-Mejia, Elena Angulo, Franck Courchamp. (2021). Biological invasions in France: Alarming costs and even more alarming knowledge gaps (Vol. 67).
Abstract: The ever-increasing number of introduced species profoundly threatens global biodiversity. While the ecological and evolutionary consequences of invasive alien species are receiving increasing attention, their economic impacts have largely remained understudied, especially in France. Here, we aimed at providing a general overview of the monetary losses (damages caused by) and expenditures (management of) associated with invasive alien species in France. This country has a long history of alien species presence, partly due to its long-standing global trade activities, highly developed tourism, and presence of overseas territories in different regions of the globe, resulting in a conservative minimum of 2,750 introduced and invasive alien species. By synthesizing for the first time the monetary losses and expenditures incurred by invasive alien species in Metropolitan France and French overseas territories, we obtained 1,583 cost records for 98 invasive alien species. We found that they caused a conservative total amount ranging between US$ 1,280 million and 11,535 million in costs over the period 1993–2018. We extrapolated costs for species invading France, for which costs were reported in other countries but not in France, which yielded an additional cost ranging from US$ 151 to 3,030 millions. Damage costs were nearly eight times higher than management expenditure. Insects, and in particular the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus and the yellow fever mosquito Ae. aegypti, totalled very high economic costs, followed by non-graminoid terrestrial flowering and aquatic plants (Ambrosia artemisiifolia, Ludwigia sp. and Lagarosiphon major). Over 90% of alien species currently recorded in France had no costs reported in the literature, resulting in high biases in taxonomic, regional and activity sector coverages. To conclude, we report alarming costs and even more alarming knowledge gaps. Our results should raise awareness of the importance of biosecurity and biosurveillance in France, and beyond, as well as the crucial need for better reporting and documentation of cost data.
Programme: 136
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Pengcheng Wang, Natacha B. Bernier, Keith R. Thompson, Tsubasa Kodaira. (2021). Evaluation of a global total water level model in the presence of radiational S2 tide (Vol. 168).
Abstract: The development of a computationally efficient scheme for predicting the global distribution of total water level (TWL) is discussed. The ocean model is barotropic, has a horizontal grid spacing of 1/12°, and is based on the NEMO modeling framework. It is forced by the gravitational potential and hourly atmospheric fields for 2008. Hourly time spacing was required to resolve the S2 tide in global air pressure and wind. The predicted tide in water deeper than 400 m was nudged to TPXO8 “observations” of tidal elevation or current using a scheme called tidal nudging (Kodaira et al., 2019). The benefit of nudging horizontal velocity in the momentum equation, compared to sea level in the continuity equation, is discussed. Tidal nudging is shown to improve tidal predictions of sea level at the coast, particularly at the S2 tidal frequency. The predicted radiational S2 tide in sea level forced solely by the S2 tide in global air pressure reaches amplitudes exceeding 80 cm. Decreasing the time spacing of the air pressure forcing from 1 h to 3 h reduces the S2 amplitude in air pressure by a factor of 0.82, consistent with expectations based on Fourier analysis. This highlights the importance of using hourly atmospheric forcing when predicting the global sea level response to atmospheric forcing. The radiational S2 tide in sea level is subject to strong nonlinear interaction with the gravitational tide, leading to a pronounced attenuation of the radiational S2 tide. The attenuation is explained by an increase in effective bottom friction at the S2 frequency due to the presence of the gravitational tide. Four schemes for predicting TWL are evaluated to quantify the impact of tidal nudging and nonlinear interaction of tide and surge. Using TWLs observed by 304 coastal tide gauges, we show it is necessary to include both tidal nudging and nonlinear interaction. Plans for the further development of an operational flood forecast system for the Canadian coast, based on the above model, are discussed.
Keywords: NEMO Radiational and gravitational tide Storm surge Tidal nudging Total water level
Programme: 688
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Christophe Sauser, Karine Delord, Christophe Barbraud. (2021). Demographic sensitivity to environmental forcings: a multi-trait, multi-colony approach (Vol. 130).
Abstract: Understanding the demographic responses of wild animal populations to different factors is fundamental to make reliable prediction of population dynamics. Both bottom–up processes and top–down regulation operate in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, but their relative contribution remains insufficiently known. In addition, direct weather effects on demographic rates have been overlooked in marine ecosystems and inferences on the demographic effects of environmental drivers were overwhelmingly made from single study sites. Here, we evaluate the relative effects of bottom–up, top–down and weather processes on four vital rates and on population growth rates of a long-lived seabird, the snow petrel Pagodroma nivea, within three different breeding colonies. We used multistate capture–recapture modelling and perturbation analyses from a matrix population model based on a 36-year-long (1981–2017) individual monitoring dataset to quantify the different drivers (predation, climatic and weather covariates) of probabilities of survival, breeding, hatching and fledging according to colony, sex and breeding status of individuals. Results show that bottom–up forces and local weather affected breeding parameters, and that survival was driven by top–down regulation pressure and bottom–up processes. Breeding parameters differed between colonies and survival was sex-specific. Sensitivity analysis revealed that population regulation was mainly driven by bottom–up processes and that top–down processes played a minor role. However, there were major differences between colonies about the importance of how local weather processes affected population growth rate. Our study brings new insights into the drivers of demographic processes in a marine meso-predator, and how these drivers vary according to colonies and individual characteristics. We emphasize the importance of considering multiple study sites to make robust inferences on the effects of environmental drivers on wildlife demography. More generally, robust conclusions about the importance of environmental drivers on demography rely on considering multiple causal effects at multiple sites, while accounting for individual characteristics.
Keywords: Antarctic bottom–up capture–mark–recapture demography elasticity matrix population model multi-colony perturbation analysis sea ice seabirds top–down
Programme: 109
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Hugo Saiz, David Renault, Sara Puijalon, Miguel Barrio, Mathilde Bertrand, Matteo Tolosano, Aurélien Pierre, Charly Ferreira, Clémentine Prouteau, Anne-Kristel Bittebiere. (2021). Huff and puff and blow down: invasive plants traits response to strong winds at the Southern Oceanic Islands (Vol. 130).
Abstract: Invasions constitute a major driver of biodiversity changes. Insular plant communities are particularly vulnerable to invasions and are relevant models for investigating mechanisms supporting the establishment and spread of introduced plants. Terrestrial flora of sub-Antarctic islands must often thrive in highly windy habitats, thus imposing strong mechanical constraints on individuals. Many alien plants at the sub-Antarctic islands are of tropical or temperate origins, where they were exposed to less stringent wind conditions. As wind likely represents a strong environmental filter for the successful establishment and further geographic spread of plants, they should have developed responses to resist and successfully colonize the Iles Kerguelen. We studied responses to wind of three herbaceous species that are invasive at Iles Kerguelen. We sampled plant individuals at different locations, under windy and sheltered conditions. Traits related to wind avoidance and tolerance and to resource acquisition were measured. We additionally assessed individual performance (biomass) to determine the consequences of trait variations. We focused on trait mean and variance, in particular, through the calculation of hypervolumes. This study emphasized that wind has important effects on plant economics spectrum, including traits involved in mechanical avoidance and light acquisition, with varying strategies, which seem to depend on the biological type of the species (grass versus non-grass). Wind generally reduces individual performance, and this negative effect is not direct but operates through the modification of plant trait values. Furthermore, analyses performed at the hypervolume scale indicate that not only functional trait mean but also its variability account for plant performance. The existence of contrasting growth strategies to cope with local environmental conditions suggests that invaders will be able to occupy different niches, which may ultimately impact local communities. Our results highlight the importance of considering multi-traits responses to meaningfully capture plant adjustments to stress.
Keywords: environmental filter functional traits hypervolume Iles Kerguelen intraspecific variability mechanical stress
Programme: 136
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Casey Youngflesh, Yun Li, Heather J. Lynch, Karine Delord, Christophe Barbraud, Rubao Ji, Stephanie Jenouvrier. (2021). Lack of synchronized breeding success in a seabird community: extreme events, niche separation, and environmental variability (Vol. 130).
Abstract: Synchrony in ecological systems, the degree to which elements respond similarly over time or space, can inform our understanding of how ecosystems function and how they are responding to global change. While studies of ecological synchrony are often focused on within-species dynamics, synchrony among species may provide important insights into how dynamics of one species are indicative of conditions relevant to the larger community, with both basic and applied implications. Ecological theory suggests there may be conditions under which communities might exhibit increased synchrony, however, the degree to which these patterns are borne out in natural systems is currently unknown. We used long-term breeding success data from a community of Antarctic seabirds to assess the degree of interspecific, community synchrony, and the role that extreme events play in driving these dynamics. We assessed theoretical links between community synchrony, niche separation, and environmental variability using data from this and three other seabird communities as well as a simulation study. Results show that reproductive success for individual species in the Antarctic seabird community fluctuated relatively independently from one another, resulting in little synchrony across this community, outside of extreme years. While an exceptionally poor year for a given species was not necessarily associated with an exceptionally poor year for any other species, one community-wide extreme year existed. When compared to other seabird communities, this group of Antarctic seabirds exhibited lower overall synchrony and higher estimated niche separation, supporting theoretical predictions. Empirical and simulation-derived results suggest that communities where temporal variation is small for conditions in which species respond substantially differently, and large for conditions in which species respond similarly, may exhibit more synchronous dynamics. Identifying where and why synchronous dynamics might be more apparent has the potential to inform how ecological communities might respond to future global change.
Keywords: Antarctica environmental indicators extreme events global change niche separation synchrony
Programme: 109
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Christophe Sauser, Karine Delord, Christophe Barbraud. (2021). Sea ice and local weather affect reproductive phenology of a polar seabird with breeding consequences (Vol. 123).
Abstract: Breeding at the right time is essential for animals living in seasonal environments to ensure that energy requirements for reproduction, especially the nutritional needs for rearing offspring, coincide with peak food availability. Climate change is likely to cause modifications in the timing of maximum food availability, and organisms living in polar environments where the breeding period is heavily contracted may be particularly affected. Here we used a 26-year dataset to study the phenological response of a pagophilic species, the Snow Petrel (Pagodroma nivea), to climate change and its demographic impact. First, we investigated the trends and relationships between climate variables and hatching dates measured in three neighboring colonies. In a second step, we examined the impact of the hatching date and environmental covariates on the fledging probability. Our results showed that sea ice, a climate-related variable, showed a positive temporal trend. We found that hatching date was delayed when sea ice concentration was greater and local weather conditions were worse (i.e., increase in the number of windy days or the number of snow days). Hatching date had a negative effect on fledging probability, and fledging probability showed a bell-shaped temporal trend. We suggest that Snow Petrels can delay breeding phenology in response to environmental conditions. However, this plasticity may be limited as fledging success decreased with delayed hatching, potentially making the Snow Petrel vulnerable to a mismatch between resource availability and nutritional needs.• Timing of reproduction is essential for wild animals to ensure that reproductive requirements, including nutritional requirements for rearing offspring, coincide with peak food availability.• Climate change can affect the timing of food availability, and organisms living in polar environments, where the timing of reproduction is highly contracted, may be particularly affected. We analyzed whether a sea ice dependent species, the Snow Petrel (Pagodroma nivea), would breed earlier or later in response to climate change, as measured by changes in sea ice and weather conditions. Then, we looked at the impact that a shift in reproduction might have on breeding success.• Our results showed that hatching date was delayed when sea ice increased and local weather conditions worsened. Secondly, we showed that the shift in hatching date had a negative effect on breeding success.• Snow Petrels adjusted the onset of reproduction in response to environmental changes. However, this adjustment had limits since late reproduction likely leads to a mismatch between the availability of resources and nutritional needs, and thus to a decrease the breeding success.
Programme: 109
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Albertin, S., Savarino, J., Bekki, S., T. Roberts, T., Barret, B., Mao, J., Simpson, W., Law, K. (2021). Isotopic constraints on the sources and fate of atmospheric nitrate in Fairbanks, Alaska: preliminary results of the pre-ALPACA campaign.
Programme: 1215
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Denis Réale. (2021). Sexual segregation in a sexually dimorphic seabird: a matter of spatial scale (Vol. 1).
Abstract: A recommendation of: Christophe Barbraud, Karine Delord, Akiko Kato, Paco Bustamante, Yves Cherel Sexual segregation in a highly pagophilic and sexually dimorphic marine predator https://doi.org/10.1101/472431
Programme: 109
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