M. Legrand, R. Weller, S. Preunkert, B. Jourdain. (2021). Ammonium in Antarctic Aerosol: Marine Biological Activity Versus Long-Range Transport of Biomass Burning (Vol. 48).
Abstract: Year-round records of the ionic composition of Antarctic aerosol were obtained at the inland Dome C (DC) and coastal Neumayer (NM) sites, with additional observations of black carbon (BC) at NM. Discussions focus on the origin of ammonium in Antarctica. This first Antarctic atmospheric study of several species emitted by biomass burning (BB) indicates that BC and oxalate reach a maximum in October in relation to BB activity in the southern hemisphere. Ammonium reaches a maximum 2 months later, suggesting that BB remains a minor ammonium source there. The ammonium maximum in December coincides with the occurrence of diatom blooms in the austral ocean, suggesting that oceanic ammonia emissions are the main source of ammonium in Antarctica. The ammonium to sulfur-derived biogenic species molar ratio of 0.15 in summer suggests far lower ammonia emissions from the Antarctic oceans than midlatitude southern oceans.
Keywords: aerosol black carbon ammonium Antarctic biomass burning et marine biota oxalate potassium
Programme: 903
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Christo Buizert, T. J. Fudge, William H. G. Roberts, Eric J. Steig, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Catherine Ritz, Eric Lefebvre, Jon Edwards, Kenji Kawamura, Ikumi Oyabu, Hideaki Motoyama, Emma C. Kahle, Tyler R. Jones, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Carlos Martin, Hugh Corr, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Ross Beaudette, Jenna A. Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Kaden Martin, Jérôme Chappellaz, Shuji Aoki, Takakiyo Nakazawa, Todd A. Sowers, Richard B. Alley, Jinho Ahn, Michael Sigl, Mirko Severi, Nelia W. Dunbar, Anders Svensson, John M. Fegyveresi, Chengfei He, Zhengyu Liu, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Vladimir Y. Lipenkov, Masa Kageyama, Jakob Schwander. (2021). Antarctic surface temperature and elevation during the Last Glacial Maximum (Vol. 372).
Abstract: Water-stable isotopes in polar ice cores are a widely used temperature proxy in paleoclimate reconstruction, yet calibration remains challenging in East Antarctica. Here, we reconstruct the magnitude and spatial pattern of Last Glacial Maximum surface cooling in Antarctica using borehole thermometry and firn properties in seven ice cores. West Antarctic sites cooled ~10°C relative to the preindustrial period. East Antarctic sites show a range from ~4° to ~7°C cooling, which is consistent with the results of global climate models when the effects of topographic changes indicated with ice core air-content data are included, but less than those indicated with the use of water-stable isotopes calibrated against modern spatial gradients. An altered Antarctic temperature inversion during the glacial reconciles our estimates with water-isotope observations.
Programme: 902
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Benjamin Pohl, Thomas Saucède, Vincent Favier, Julien Pergaud, Deborah Verfaillie, Jean-Pierre Féral, Ylber Krasniqi, Yves Richard. (2021). Recent Climate Variability around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) Seen through Weather Regimes (Vol. 60). Bachelor's thesis, , .
Abstract: Daily Weather Regimes Are Defined Around The Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) On The Basis Of Daily 500-hpa Geopotential Height Anomalies Derived From The Era5 Ensemble Reanalysis Over The Period 1979–2018. Ten Regimes Are Retained As Significant. Their Occurrences Are Highly Consistent Across Reanalysis Ensemble Members. Regimes Show Weak Seasonality And Nonsignificant Long-term Trends In Their Occurrences. Their Sequences Are Usually Short (1–3 Days), With Extreme Persistence Values Above 10 Days. Seasonal Regime Frequency Is Mostly Driven By The Phase Of The Southern Annular Mode Over Antarctica, Midlatitude Dynamics Over The Southern Ocean Such As The Pacific–south American Mode, And, To A Lesser Extent, Tropical Variability, With Significant But Weaker Relationships With El Niño–southern Oscillation. At The Local Scale Over The Kerguelen Islands, Regimes Have A Strong Influence On Measured Atmospheric And Oceanic Variables, Including Minimum And Maximum Air Temperature, Mostly Driven By Horizontal Advections, Seawater Temperature Recorded 5 M Below The Surface, Wind Speed, And Sea Level Pressure. Relationships Are Weaker For Precipitation Amounts. Regimes Also Modify Regional Contrasts Between Observational Sites In Kerguelen, Highlighting Strong Exposure Contrasts. The Regimes Allow Us To Improve Our Understanding Of Weather And Climate Variability And Interactions In This Region; They Will Be Used In Future Work To Assess Past And Projected Long-term Circulation Changes In The Southern Midlatitudes.
Programme: 688,1044,1048
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Charlène Guillaumot. (2021). Modelling the response of Antarctic marine species to environmental changes. Methods, applications and limitations. /// Modéliser la réponse des espèces marines antarctiques aux changements environnementaux. Méthodes, applications et limites. Bachelor's thesis, , .
Abstract: Parmi les outils qui permettent de mieux comprendre les systèmes naturels, la modélisation écologique a connu un essor particulièrement important depuis une vingtaine d’années. Les modèles écologiques, représentation simplifiée d’une réalité complexe, permettent de mettre en avant les facteurs environnementaux qui déterminent la niche écologique des espèces et de mieux comprendre leur réponse aux changements de l’environnement. Dans le cas des faunes marines antarctiques, la modélisation écologique fait face à plusieurs défis méthodologiques. Les jeux de données de présence des espèces sont très souvent agrégés dans le temps et dans l’espace, à proximité des stations de recherche. Ces données sont souvent trop peu nombreuses pour caractériser l’espace environnemental occupé par les espèces ainsi que leur physiologie. Enfin, les jeux de données environnementales manquent encore de précision pour finement représenter la complexité des habitats marins. Dans ces conditions, est-il possible de générer des modèles performants et justes à l’échelle de l’océan Austral ? Quelles sont les approches possibles et leurs limites ? Comment améliorer les méthodes afin de générer de meilleurs modèles ? Au cours de ce travail de thèse, trois types de modèles ont été étudiés et leurs performances évaluées. (1) Les modèles physiologiques de type DEB (Dynamic Energy Budget) simulent la manière dont l’environnement abiotique influe sur le métabolisme des individus et proposent une représentation de la niche fondamentale des espèces. (2) Les modèles de distribution d’espèces (SDMs pour Species Distribution Models) prédisent la probabilité de distribution des espèces en étudiant la relation spatiale entre données de présence et environnement. Ils proposent une représentation de la niche réalisée des espèces. Enfin (3), les modèles de dispersion de type lagrangien prédisent le mouvement de propagules dans les masses d’eau. Les résultats montrent que les modèles physiologiques réussissent à simuler les variations métaboliques des espèces antarctiques en fonction de l’environnement et à prédire les dynamiques de populations. Cependant, davantage de données sont nécessaires pour pouvoir caractériser finement les différences physiologiques entre populations et évaluer correctement les modèles. Les résultats obtenus pour les SDMs montrent que les modèles générés à l’échelle de l’océan Austral et leurs prédictions futures ne sont pas fiables du fait du manque de données disponibles pour caractériser l’espace occupé par les espèces, du manque de précision des scénarios climatiques futurs et de l’impossibilité d’évaluer les modèles. De plus, les modèles extrapolent sur une très grande proportion de l’espace projeté. L’apport d’information complémentaire sur les limites physiologiques des espèces (observations, résultats d’expériences, sorties de modèles physiologiques) permet de réduire l’extrapolation et d’augmenter la capacité des modèles à décrire la niche réalisée des espèces. L’agrégation spatiale des données, qui influençait les prédictions et l’évaluation des modèles a également pu être corrigée. Enfin, les modèles de dispersion ont montré un potentiel intéressant pour révéler le rôle des barrières géographiques ou à l’inverse, la connectivité spatiale, mais également le lien existant entre distribution, physiologie et histoire phylogénétique des espèces. Ce travail de thèse propose de nombreux conseils et fournit des codes annotés parfois sous forme de tutoriels, afin de constituer une aide utile aux futurs travaux de modélisation sur les espèces marines antarctiques.
Programme: 688,1044
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Anzhou Cao, Zheng Guo, Xiaoyu Qi, Peiliang Li, Hailun He. (2021). Seasonal and nodal variations of predominant tidal constituents in the global ocean (Vol. 217).
Abstract: Tides are one of the basic types of ocean water motions. Previous studies have reported that the M2 constituent exhibits seasonal variations (annual cycles) in some regions. However, based on the newly proposed method of modified two-step harmonic analysis (HA) and its application at 240 global tide gauges, we find that the M2 constituent as well as the S2 and K1 do not have significant seasonal variations at these tide gauges. The seasonal variations of the M2 constituent reported in previous studies are caused by its satellites, the H1 and H2 constituents, which are not resolved in these studies due to the short time window (one month or three months) used in HA. Because the frequency of the H1 (H2) constituent is equal to that of the M2 minus (plus) the frequency of annual cycles, the superposition of the M2, H1 and H2 constituents with constant amplitudes is equivalent to the M2 constituent with seasonally varying amplitudes. Compared with the new method, some adaptations to traditional HA aiming to capture variations in amplitudes and phase lags of constituents have some limitations, because they either neglect some satellites of the major constitutes or introduce spurious fluctuations resulting from an unreasonably large number of independent points. The nodal modulations of predominant constituents are also explored in this study. On the global scale, the nodal modulations of the M2, K1 and O1 constituents agree with the theoretical predictions, except a cold spot region with reduced nodal modulation in the Gulf of Maine and a hot spot region with enhanced nodal modulation in the South China Sea for the M2. Nodal modulation is also found for the S2 constituent (in theory, the S2 has no nodal modulation), which is 0.8% averaged at 164 tide gauges where the S2 is not too weak.
Keywords: Fitting Modified two-step harmonic analysis Nodal modulation Seasonal variation Tide gauge Tides
Programme: 688
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David Byrne, Jeff Polton, Colin Bell. (2021). Creation of a global tide analysis dataset: Application of NEMO and an offline objective analysis scheme.
Abstract: The accurate prediction of tides is vital for the operation of many industries, early warning of coastal flooding and scientific understanding of ocean processes. In this paper, we describe the creation method of a global dataset of tidal harmonics using NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) for the first time and an offline objective analysis scheme. Data are assimilated as part of a post-processing step, reducing the computational resources required. A reduced ensemble of tidal harmonics is generated, where each member is run for a shorter period of time than a central background state. This ensemble is used to estimate a single background covariance state, which is used for analysis. Output is validated using an ensemble of objective analyses. For each ensemble member, random selections of observations are omitted and validation is performed at these locations. Improvements in both Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and correlation coefficients (R2) are seen across all 6 of the largest diurnal and semi-diurnal constituents. MAEs in amplitude and phase are reduced by up to 78% and 89%, respectively, and correlations by as much as 0.14. In addition, the majority of locations (between 70 and 80%) see significant improvement.
Programme: 688
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Pengcheng Wang, Natacha B. Bernier, Keith R. Thompson, Tsubasa Kodaira. (2021). Evaluation of a global total water level model in the presence of radiational S2 tide (Vol. 168).
Abstract: The development of a computationally efficient scheme for predicting the global distribution of total water level (TWL) is discussed. The ocean model is barotropic, has a horizontal grid spacing of 1/12°, and is based on the NEMO modeling framework. It is forced by the gravitational potential and hourly atmospheric fields for 2008. Hourly time spacing was required to resolve the S2 tide in global air pressure and wind. The predicted tide in water deeper than 400 m was nudged to TPXO8 “observations” of tidal elevation or current using a scheme called tidal nudging (Kodaira et al., 2019). The benefit of nudging horizontal velocity in the momentum equation, compared to sea level in the continuity equation, is discussed. Tidal nudging is shown to improve tidal predictions of sea level at the coast, particularly at the S2 tidal frequency. The predicted radiational S2 tide in sea level forced solely by the S2 tide in global air pressure reaches amplitudes exceeding 80 cm. Decreasing the time spacing of the air pressure forcing from 1 h to 3 h reduces the S2 amplitude in air pressure by a factor of 0.82, consistent with expectations based on Fourier analysis. This highlights the importance of using hourly atmospheric forcing when predicting the global sea level response to atmospheric forcing. The radiational S2 tide in sea level is subject to strong nonlinear interaction with the gravitational tide, leading to a pronounced attenuation of the radiational S2 tide. The attenuation is explained by an increase in effective bottom friction at the S2 frequency due to the presence of the gravitational tide. Four schemes for predicting TWL are evaluated to quantify the impact of tidal nudging and nonlinear interaction of tide and surge. Using TWLs observed by 304 coastal tide gauges, we show it is necessary to include both tidal nudging and nonlinear interaction. Plans for the further development of an operational flood forecast system for the Canadian coast, based on the above model, are discussed.
Keywords: NEMO Radiational and gravitational tide Storm surge Tidal nudging Total water level
Programme: 688
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M. Afroosa, B. Rohith, Arya Paul, Fabien Durand, Romain Bourdallé-Badie, P. V. Sreedevi, Olivier de Viron, Valérie Ballu, S. S. C. Shenoi. (2021). Madden-Julian oscillation winds excite an intraseasonal see-saw of ocean mass that affects Earth’s polar motion (Vol. 2).
Abstract: Strong large-scale winds can relay their energy to the ocean bottom and elicit an almost immediate intraseasonal barotropic (depth independent) response in the ocean. The intense winds associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation over the Maritime Continent generate significant intraseasonal basin-wide barotropic sea level variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Here we show, using a numerical model and a network of in-situ bottom pressure recorders, that the concerted barotropic response of the Indian and the Pacific Ocean to these winds leads to an intraseasonal see-saw of oceanic mass in the Indo-Pacific basin. This global-scale mass shift is unexpectedly fast, as we show that the mass field of the entire Indo-Pacific basin is dynamically adjusted to Madden-Julian Oscillation in a few days. We find this large-scale ocean see-saw, induced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, has a detectable influence on the Earth’s polar axis motion, in particular during the strong see-saw of early 2013.
Keywords: Physical oceanography
Programme: 688
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Petra Zemunik, Jadranka Šepić, Havu Pellikka, Leon Ćatipović, Ivica Vilibić. (2021). Minute Sea-Level Analysis (MISELA): a high-frequency sea-level analysis global dataset (Vol. 13).
Abstract: Sea-level observations provide information on a variety of processes occurring over different temporal and spatial scales that may contribute to coastal flooding and hazards. However, global research on sea-level extremes is restricted to hourly datasets, which prevent the quantification and analyses of processes occurring at timescales between a few minutes and a few hours. These shorter-period processes, like seiches, meteotsunamis, infragravity and coastal waves, may even dominate in low tidal basins. Therefore, a new global 1 min sea-level dataset – MISELA (Minute Sea-Level Analysis) – has been developed, encompassing quality-checked records of nonseismic sea-level oscillations at tsunami timescales (T<2 h) obtained from 331 tide-gauge sites (https://doi.org/10.14284/456, Zemunik et al., 2021b). This paper describes data quality control procedures applied to the MISELA dataset, world and regional coverage of tide-gauge sites, and lengths of time series. The dataset is appropriate for global, regional or local research of atmospherically induced high-frequency sea-level oscillations, which should be included in the overall sea-level extremes assessments.
Programme: 688
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Yushiro Fujii, Kenji Satake, Shingo Watada, Tung-Cheng Ho. (2021). Re-examination of Slip Distribution of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake (Mw 9.2) by the Inversion of Tsunami Data Using Green’s Functions Corrected for Compressible Seawater Over the Elastic Earth (Vol. 178).
Abstract: We re-examined the slip distribution on faults of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman (M 9.1 according to USGS) earthquake by the inversion of tsunami data with phase-corrected Green’s functions applied to linear long waves. The correction accounts for the effects of compressibility of seawater, elasticity of solid earth, and gravitational potential variation associated with the motion of mass to reproduce the delayed arrivals and the reversed phase of the first tsunami waves. We used sea surface height (SSH) data from satellite altimetry (SA) measurements along five tracks, and the tsunami waveforms recorded at tide gauges (TGs) and ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) in and around the Indian Ocean. The inversion results for both data sets for different rupture velocities (Vr) show that the reproducibility of the spatiotemporal SSHs and tsunami waveforms is improved by the phase corrections, although the effects are not so significant within the Indian Ocean. The best slip distribution model from joint inversion of SA, TG and OBPG data with Vr of 1.3 km/s shows the largest slips of 16–25 m off Sumatra Island, large slips of 2–11 m off the Nicobar Islands, and moderate slips of 2–6 m in the Andaman Islands. The inversion results reproduce the far-field tsunami waveforms well at distant stations even more than 13,000–25,000 km from the epicenter. The total source length is about 1400 km and the seismic moment is Mw 9.2, longer and larger than that of our previous estimates based on TG records.
Keywords: 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake far-field tsunami waveform phase-corrected Green’s function slip distribution tsunami data inversion
Programme: 688
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