Abstract: Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) production supplies the deep limb of the global overturning circulation and ventilates the deep ocean. While the Weddell and Ross Seas are recognized as key sites for AABW production, additional sources have been discovered in coastal polynya regions around East Antarctica, most recently at Vincennes Bay. Vincennes Bay, despite encompassing two distinct polynya regions, is considered the weakest source, producing Dense Shelf Water (DSW) only just dense enough to contribute to the lighter density classes of AABW found offshore. Here we provide the first detailed oceanographic observations of the continental shelf in Vincennes Bay (104-111°E), using CTD data from instrumented elephant seals spanning from February to November of 2012. We find that Vincennes Bay has East Antarctica’s warmest recorded intrusions of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) and that warm mCDW drives basal melt under Vanderford and Underwood ice shelves. Our study also provides the first direct observational evidence for the inflow of meltwater to this region, which increases stratification and hinders DSW formation, and thus AABW production. The Vincennes Bay glaciers, together with the Totten Glacier, drain part of the Aurora Basin, which holds up to 7 m of sea level rise equivalent. Our results highlight the vulnerability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to intrusions of mCDW.

Abstract: Ocean circulation connects geographically distinct ecosystems across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales via exchanges of physical and biogeochemical properties. Remote oceanographic processes can be especially important for ecosystems in the Southern Ocean, where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transports properties across ocean basins through both advection and mixing. Recent tracking studies have indicated the existence of two large-scale, open ocean habitats in the Southern Ocean used by grey petrels (Procellaria cinerea) from two populations (i.e., Kerguelen and Antipodes islands) during their nonbreeding season for extended periods during austral summer (i.e., October to February). In this work, we use a novel combination of large-scale oceanographic observations, surface drifter data, satellite-derived primary productivity, numerical adjoint sensitivity experiments, and output from a biogeochemical state estimate to examine local and remote influences on these grey petrel habitats. Our aim is to understand the oceanographic features that control these isolated foraging areas and to evaluate their ecological value as oligotrophic open ocean habitats. We estimate the minimum local primary productivity required to support these populations to be much <1% of the estimated local primary productivity. The region in the southeast Indian Ocean used by the birds from Kerguelen is connected by circulation to the productive Kerguelen shelf. In contrast, the region in the south-central Pacific Ocean used by seabirds from the Antipodes is relatively isolated suggesting it is more influenced by local factors or the cumulative effects of many seasonal cycles. This work exemplifies the potential use of predator distributions and oceanographic data to highlight areas of the open ocean that may be more dynamic and productive than previously thought. Our results highlight the need to consider advective connections between ecosystems in the Southern Ocean and to re-evaluate the ecological relevance of oligotrophic Southern Ocean regions from a conservation perspective.

Abstract: Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.

Abstract: Fisheries modify prey availability for marine predators by extracting resources but also by providing them with new feeding opportunities. Among these, depredation, which occurs when predators feed on fish caught on fishing gear, is a behavior developed by many species as a way to acquire food through limited foraging effort. However, the extent to which depredated resources from fisheries contribute to the energetic requirements and affect the demography of depredating individuals is unknown. We investigated the contribution of Patagonian toothfish Dissostichus eleginoides depredated on longlines to the energetic requirements of killer whales Orcinus orca around the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) over the period 2007-2018. Our results indicate that during days when depredation occurred, depredating individuals fulfilled on average 94.1% of their daily energetic requirements with depredated toothfish. However, the contribution varied from 1.2 to 13.3% of the monthly energetic requirements and from 2.4 to 8.8% of the yearly energetic requirements of the total population. Together, these findings suggest that intake of depredated toothfish can be substantial at a fine scale (daily and individually), potentially leading to temporary provisioning effects and changes in predation pressures. These effects become minor (<10%), however, when considering the full population over a whole year. The contribution of depredated fish to the annual energetic requirements of the population has increased in recent years, likely due to larger fishing quotas and greater opportunities for whales to depredate, which stresses the importance of accounting for depredation in ecosystem-based management of fishing activity.

Abstract: Understanding the movements of animals that spend much of their life at sea is difficult but important for effective conservation. Determining the at-sea distributions of Macaroni (Eudyptes chrysolophus) and Royal (Eudyptes schlegeli) Penguins poses particular challenges, including their occurrence in remote locations and difficulties in species identification owing to overlap in morphological characters, particularly in immature birds. Here we use DNA sequencing to examine vagrant Macaroni and Royal Penguins from Antarctica and New Zealand in order to improve understanding of their non-breeding distributions. Our sampling included samples from living birds, museum specimens and scavenged penguin remains recovered from the stomachs of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) caught north of the Ross Sea. Mitochondrial control region (HVRI) sequences indicated that the two samples from New Zealand were likely Royal Penguins as were the scavenged penguins. Both Macaroni and Royal Penguins were detected at Terre Adélie, Antarctica, despite the nearest breeding colony of Macaroni Penguins being 4000 km away. We provide the first evidence of Royal Penguins reaching the Ross Dependency. All but one of the vagrants were immature birds, supporting suggestions that this age group is the most likely to disperse large distances from the breeding colonies. Our study demonstrates how DNA sequences can assist in identifying taxa with similar or overlapping morphologies, as well as fragmentary bird remains.