Abstract: Changes in mass, extent, duration, and physical properties of snow are key elements for studying associated climate change feedbacks in northern regions. In this study, we analyzed snowpack physical properties along a ‘mega’ transect from 47°N to 83°N (4,000 km) in northeastern Canada, which includes marked transitions between ecozones from boreal forest to subarctic and arctic ecosystems. Our unique dataset of 391 detailed snowpits acquired over the last 20 years, complemented with snow data from weather stations, shows that snowpack properties such as snow water equivalent, snow depth, density, grain size and basal depth hoar fraction (DHF) are strongly linked to vegetation type. Based on these results, we propose an updated classification of snow types in three classes: boreal forest snow (47–58°N), tundra snow (58–74°N) and polar desert snow (74–83°N), which is more appropriate to the study area than the general north hemisphere classification commonly used. We also show that shrub presence along the transect contributes to a significant increase in DHF development which contributes most strongly to the thermal insulation properties of the snowpack. Overall, our analysis suggests that snow–vegetation interactions have a positive feedback effect on warming at northern latitudes.

Abstract: Most of the microbial biogeographic patterns in the oceans have been depicted at the whole community level, leaving out finer taxonomic resolution (i.e., microdiversity) that is crucial to conduct intra-population phylogeographic study, as commonly done for macroorganisms. Here, we present a new approach to unravel the bacterial phylogeographic patterns combining community-wide survey by 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding and intra-species resolution through the oligotyping method, allowing robust estimations of genetic and phylogeographic indices, and migration parameters. As a proof-of-concept, we focused on the bacterial genus Spirochaeta across three distant biogeographic provinces of the Southern Ocean; maritime Antarctica, sub-Antarctic Islands, and Patagonia. Each targeted Spirochaeta operational taxonomic units were characterized by a substantial intrapopulation microdiversity, and significant genetic differentiation and phylogeographic structure among the three provinces. Gene flow estimations among Spirochaeta populations support the role of the Antarctic Polar Front as a biogeographic barrier to bacterial dispersal between Antarctic and sub-Antarctic provinces. Conversely, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current appears as the main driver of gene flow, connecting sub-Antarctic Islands with Patagonia and maritime Antarctica. Additionally, historical processes (drift and dispersal limitation) govern up to 86% of the spatial turnover among Spirochaeta populations. Overall, our approach bridges the gap between microbial and macrobial ecology by revealing strong congruency with macroorganisms distribution patterns at the populational level, shaped by the same oceanographic structures and ecological processes.

Abstract: The Kerguelen Islands are part of the French Southern Territories, located at the limit of the Indian and Southern oceans. They are highly impacted by climate change, and coastal marine areas are particularly at risk. Assessing the responses of species and populations to environmental change is challenging in such areas for which ecological modelling can constitute a helpful approach. In the present work, a DEB-IBM model (Dynamic Energy Budget – Individual-Based Model) was generated to simulate and predict population dynamics in an endemic and common benthic species of shallow marine habitats of the Kerguelen Islands, the sea urchin Abatus cordatus. The model relies on a dynamic energy budget model (DEB) developed at the individual level. Upscaled to an individual-based population model (IBM), it then enables to model population dynamics through time as a result of individual physiological responses to environmental variations. The model was successfully built for a reference site to simulate the response of populations to variations in food resources and temperature. Then, it was implemented to model population dynamics at other sites and for the different IPCC climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Under present-day conditions, models predict a more determinant effect of food resources on population densities, and on juvenile densities in particular, relative to temperature. In contrast, simulations predict a sharp decline in population densities under conditions of IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 with a determinant effect of water warming leading to the extinction of most vulnerable populations after a 30-year simulation time due to high mortality levels associated with peaks of high temperatures. Such a dynamic model is here applied for the first time to a Southern Ocean benthic and brooding species and offers interesting prospects for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic biodiversity research. It could constitute a useful tool to support conservation studies in these remote regions where access and bio-monitoring represent challenging issues.

Abstract: The potential for biological colonization of Antarctic shores is an increasingly important topic in the context of anthropogenic warming. Successful Antarctic invasions to date have been recorded exclusively from terrestrial habitats. While non-native marine species such as crabs, mussels and tunicates have already been reported from Antarctic coasts, none have as yet established there. Among the potential marine invaders of Antarctic shallow waters is Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775), a crab with a circum-Subantarctic distribution and substantial larval dispersal capacity. An ovigerous female of this species was found in shallow waters of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands in 2010. A combination of physiological experiments and ecological modelling was used to assess the potential niche of H. planatus and estimate its future southward boundaries under climate change scenarios. We show that H. planatus has a minimum thermal limit of 1°C, and that its current distribution (assessed by sampling and niche modelling) is physiologically restricted to the Subantarctic region. While this species is presently unable to survive in Antarctica, future warming under both ‘strong mitigation’ and ‘no mitigation’ greenhouse gas emission scenarios will favour its niche expansion to the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) by 2100. Future human activity also has potential to increase the probability of anthropogenic translocation of this species into Antarctic ecosystems.