Abstract: The study of dispersal or recruitment in long-lived birds using capture–recapture methods is challenging because temporary emigration is often a source of heterogeneity in detection probabilities. To deal with this problem, we introduced unobservable states in the multistate, spatial recruitment model of Lebreton et al. (Oikos 101:253–264, 2003) to study dispersal, recruitment and survival in the Wandering Albatross (Diomedea exulans), a species with a biennial reproduction (individuals skip breeding following a successful reproduction). We highlight some of the limitations and challenges encountered in using this approach. Our dataset came from a 36-year capture–recapture study conducted at three colonies of the Crozet archipelago. The model had five reproductive stages: pre-breeders, successful breeders, failed breeders, and birds in the year after a successful or a failed breeding attempt, which are unobservable. In adults, movements between colonies (i.e. breeding dispersal) were nested within reproductive stages. Several models with different constraints on survival equally fitted the data but had some rank deficiencies (i.e. non-identifiable parameters). Survival estimates were most biologically realistic (from 0.91 to 0.95) when survival was set equal between observable/unobservable states but free to vary between successful/failed breeders and among colonies. Age-specific recruitment probabilities peaked at 9–10 years and appeared well estimated despite limitations in setting the age of constant recruitment probability. Modelling natal dispersal and recruitment required a simplification of the structure of the model due to computer limitations. When applying the complete and reduced versions of the model to the same dataset, we found that survival was well estimated in both cases. Some transition probability estimates were also similar, but transitions from unobservable to observable states were poorly estimated in the simplified version. We conclude that the simplified version of the model should be limited to the estimation of natal dispersal and that the model with a full structure should be used to estimate breeding dispersal.

Abstract: Abstract Aim Despite an improved understanding of Southern Hemisphere plant biogeography, the origins and evolution of sub?Antarctic floras remain poorly studied. Here, we investigate the historical biogeography of sub?Antarctic representatives of the genus Ranunculus. We aimed to establish when and from where the sub?Antarctic ranunculi originated as well as to examine the extent to which ecomorphological traits explain contemporary biogeographical patterns. Location Southern temperate and sub?Antarctic zones. Methods We first estimated a dated phylogeny for Ranunculus using combined chloroplast and nuclear data for 53 accessions; divergence times were inferred based on three temporal calibrations. We then used non?parametric multidimensional scaling to evaluate the ecomorphological diversity of 67 austral ranunculi representing a combination of sub?Antarctic species and those restricted to lower latitude landmasses. Results Phylogenetic analyses indicated that several Ranunculus lineages have colonized the sub?Antarctic islands. Divergence time estimates suggest recent arrival from source areas in Australia, New Zealand or South America. Species exhibiting two distinct ecomorphological trait combinations occur in both sub?Antarctic and lower latitude habitats; the proportions of each combination differed significantly between these areas. Main conclusions Ranunculus has colonized the sub?Antarctic on several occasions, most often arriving from the lower latitude landmasses prior to the Last Glacial Maximum. Taken together our analyses suggest that chance effects are likely to have influenced species arrival. However, following arrival trait?environment interactions appear to have been important for the subsequent establishment and persistence of ranunculi in sub?Antarctic habitats.

Abstract: Seismic noise is an indirect source of information on ocean waves. Using a model of noise generation and propagation, seismic stations can be separated into those that are mostly sensitive to local sea states, and those that integrate sources from a large oceanic area. The model also provides a classification of noise-generating sea states into three classes. The analysis of Central California seismic noise data, well correlated with local waves, reveals that class I events dominate in summer, caused by a single wind-sea system, and for which ocean wave spectral levels are proportional to seismic spectral levels to an exponentb  0.9. In winter, noise is dominated by class II generation, for which coastal reflection is important, with a wave spectral density roughly proportional to the seismic spectral density to an exponent b  0.7. Sporadic events of class III probably produce some of the strongest noise events in Central California and need to be properly screened. These events are caused by opposed wave systems that are usually the wind-sea and a swell. This noise classification can be used to improve on the correlation between measured and estimated wave heights (up tor = 0.93 for daily averages). For other locations, where remote oceanic sources are recorded, a significant wave height estimated from the seismic noise compares well with area-averaged satellite data or wave model results (r > 0.85 for daily averages). These analyses pave the way for quantitative uses of seismic records, including the reconstruction of past wave climates, and the calibration of wave hindcasts.

Abstract: In order to survive and later recruit into a population, juvenile animals need to acquire resources through the use of innate and/or learnt behaviors in an environment new to them. For far-ranging marine species, such as the wandering albatross Diomedea exulans, this is particularly challenging as individuals need to be able to rapidly adapt and optimize their movement strategies in response to the highly dynamic and heterogeneous nature of their open-ocean pelagic habitats. Critical to this is the development and flexibility of dispersal and exploratory behaviors. Here, we examine the movements of eight juvenile wandering albatrosses, tracked using GPS/Argos satellite transmitters for eight months following fledging, and compare these to the trajectories of 17 adults to assess differences and similarities in behavioral strategies through time. Behavioral clustering algorithms (Expectation Maximization binary Clustering) were combined with multinomial regression analyses to investigate changes in behavioral mode probabilities over time, and how these may be influenced by variations in day duration and in biophysical oceanographic conditions. We found that juveniles appeared to quickly acquire the same large-scale behavioral strategies as those employed by adults, although generally more time was spent resting at night. Moreover, individuals were able to detect and exploit specific oceanographic features in a manner similar to that observed in adults. Together, the results of this study suggest that while shortly after fledging juvenile wandering albatrosses are able to employ similar foraging strategies to those observed in adults, additional skills need to be acquired during the immature period before the efficiency of these behaviors matches that of adults.

Abstract: Incidental capture of seabirds in longline fishing gear is a central issue in the conservation of many long-lived marine species. Despite growing evidence of climate-induced effects on population trends of long-lived species, climate change remains generally overlooked in most risk assessments of seabirds. Because variation in climate may interact with the detrimental effects of bycatch, considering climate is of great importance, especially in the context of ongoing global warming. This paper examines the combined effects of bycatch and climate change on the persistence of one of the worlds rarest birds, the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis, which has a single population in the upland plateau of Amsterdam Island (Southeast Indian Ocean). Using continuous monitoring from 1983 onwards, we first estimated the relationship between climate and the species demographic parameters. We then built a stochastic matrix population model to estimate the population growth rate and the probability that the population declines below the level recorded in 1983 of nine breeding pairs under different scenarios involving the joint effects of additional mortality caused by longline fisheries and climate change. The results suggest that the demography of the Amsterdam Albatross is influenced by climate in both breeding and wintering grounds and that these relationships may to some extent compensate for the impact of additive bycatch mortality. However, these compensatory effects would be negligible if the annual additional mortality exceeds around six individuals per year, suggesting that the resumption of longline fishery in the foraging range of the Amsterdam Albatross would rapidly put this species at risk of extinction.