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Andreas Richter, Alexey A. Ekaykin, Matthias O. Willen, Vladimir Ya. Lipenkov, Andreas Groh, Sergey V. Popov, Mirko Scheinert, Martin Horwath, Reinhard Dietrich. (2021). Surface Mass Balance Models Vs. Stake Observations: A Comparison in the Lake Vostok Region, Central East Antarctica (Vol. 9).
Abstract: The surface mass balance (SMB) is very low over the vast East Antarctic Plateau, for example in the Vostok region, where the mean SMB is on the order of 20–35 kg m-2 a-1. The observation and modeling of spatio-temporal SMB variations are equally challenging in this environment. Stake measurements carried out in the Vostok region provide SMB observations over half a century (1970–2019). This unique data set is compared with SMB estimations of the regional climate models RACMO2.3p2 (RACMO) and MAR3.11 (MAR). We focus on the SMB variations over time scales from months to decades. The comparison requires a rigorous assessment of the uncertainty in the stake observations and the spatial scale dependence of the temporal SMB variations. Our results show that RACMO estimates of annual and multi-year SMB agree well with the observations. The regression slope between modelled and observed temporal variations is close to 1.0 for this model. SMB simulations by MAR are affected by a positive bias which amounts to 6 kg m-2 a-1 at Vostok station and 2 kg m-2 a-1 along two stake profiles between Lake Vostok and Ridge B. None of the models is capable to reproduce the seasonal distributions of SMB and precipitation. Model SMB estimates are used in assessing the ice-mass balance and sea-level contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet by the input-output method. Our results provide insights into the uncertainty contribution of the SMB models to such assessments.
Programme: 411
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Mccoy, Kd. (2021). Tick and tick-borne disease circulation in a changing marine ecosystem.
Abstract: This Book Brings Together Expert Opinions From Scientists To Consider The Evidence For Climate Change And Its Impacts On Ticks And Tick-borne Infections, And Provide Predictions For The Future. It Considers What Is Meant By 'Climate Change', How Good Are Climate Models Relevant To Ecosystems, And Predictions For Changes In Climate At Global, Regional, And Local Scales Relevant For Ticks And Tick-borne Infections. It Examines Changes To Tick Distribution And The Evidence That Climate Change Is Responsible. The Effect Of Climate On The Physiology And Metabolism Of Ticks, Including Potentially Critical Impacts On The Tick Microbiome Is Stressed. Given That The Notoriety Of Ticks Derives From Pathogens They Transmit, Do Changes In Climate Affect Vector Capacity? Ticks Transmit A Remarkable Range Of Micro- And Macro-parasites Many Of Which Are Pathogens Of Humans And Domesticated Animals. The Intimacy Between Tick-borne Agent And Tick Vector Means That Any Impacts Of Climate On A Tick Vector Will Impact Tick-borne Pathogens. Most Obviously, Such Impacts Will Be Apparent As Changes In Disease Incidence And Prevalence. The Evidence That Climate Change Is Affecting Diseases Caused By Tick-borne Pathogens Is Considered, Along With The Potential To Make Robust Predictions Of Future Events.
Programme: 333
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Hippolyte LEURIDAN (based in LSCE, internship will be supervised both by LSCE - Michel RAMONET -, and IGE - Olivier MAGAND-, laboratories). (2021). Investigation of Radon measurements as a tracer of atmospheric mercury sources using Amsterdam Island records (Indian Ocean).
Abstract: Since The Signature Of The Minamata Convention On Mercury In 2017, National Regulation Coordinated At An International Level Will Come Into Force In Order To Limit Anthropogenic Emissions And Therefore Protect The Human Health And Ecosystem From This Highly Toxic Pollutant. One Need To Evaluate The Efficiency Of National Measures, And Long-term Monitoring Of Atmospheric Mercury (Hg) Is An Important Tool To Address The Changes Over Time Of Emission Sources, Transport, And Deposition Patterns.the Global Mercury Observation System (Gmos) Project Was Funded By The European Commission (Http://www.gmos.eu) And Started In November 2010 With The Overall Goal To Develop A Coordinated Global Observing System To Monitor Hg On A Global Scale, Including A Large Network Of Ground-based Monitoring Stations. To Date, More Than 40 Ground-based Monitoring Sites Constitute The Global Network Covering Many Regions Where Little To No Observational Data Were Available Before Gmos (Sprovieri Et Al., 2016). All Gmos Work Is Now Continued In The Framework Of The International Frame Work Of Gos4m (Global Observation System For Mercury – Http://www.gos4m.org)although Essential To Fully Understand The Cycling Of Mercury At The Global Scale, Mercury Species Records In The Southern Hemisphere Were Really Scarce Before Gmos. In This Context, An Atmospheric Mercury Monitoring Station Has Been Set Up On Amsterdam Island (37◦48 S, 77◦34 E) In The Remote Southern Indian Ocean In 2012. Since 2012, We Continuously Measured Gaseous Mercury Species With A 15 Min Frequency. Angot Et Al. (2014) Discussed The First Two Years Of This Record, Using Principally Wind Sector Analysis And Air Mass Back Trajectories. They Also Include In Their Analysis The Unique Continuous Record Of Radon 222 And 220 (Thoron) (Polian Et Al., 1986; Kritz Et Al., 1990). Radon 222 And 220 (Thoron) Activities Can Be Used To Distinguish Local Soil Outgassing From Remote Continental Source. Combined With Meteorological Data, The Change Of Activities Are Then Powerful Tool To Classify Air Mass Origin For The Atmospheric Gaseous Mercury Record. Rapid And Sharp Variations Of Radon 222 Activity, Referred To As &Ldquo;radonic Storms” (Lambert Et Al., 1970) And Ascribed To Strong Continental Air Mass Advection, Are Then Observed At Amsterdam Island. The Occurrence Of Radonic Storms Was Estimated To Be About 4 % In 2012 And 7 % In 2013. Considering The Works Realized In 2014, The Goal Of This Internship Is To Deeper Explore The Relationships Between The Collected Gaseous Elemental Mercury And Observed Radon (222rn / 220rn) Activities In The Entire Data Set. In Particular, We Will Study The Specific And Coupled Trend Of These Compounds, The Frequency And Intensity Of Radonic Storm Occurrence And Their Potential Link With The Gaseous Elemental Mercury Cycle. Local Meteorology Data As Well As Backtrajectories Simulation (Hysplit And/or Flexpart Model) Will Be Also Used.
Programme: 1028
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Cyrielle Solis (Based In Lsce, Internship Will Be Supervised Both By Lsce - Amaelle Landais, Françoise Vimeux -, And Ige - Olivier Magand-, Laboratories). (2021). Isotopic signature of atmospheric dynamics on the island of Amsterdam and link to large-scale moisture transport.
Abstract: Climate And Water Cycle Reconstruction Over The Last Centuries And Prediction Should Be Improved In The Southern Hemisphere (E.g. Last Ipcc Report). First, Direct Observations Are Scarce (E.g. In Antarctica, Mainly Basic Automatic Weather Station – Aws – Only Since The 50’s And Satellite Observations). As A Consequence, Climate And Water Cycle Reconstructions Are Largely Dependent On Proxy Measurements Such As Water Isotopes In Polar Ice Cores, Even Over The Last Century. Second, Climate And Water Cycle Reconstructions Using Models Should Be Improved. In Particular, Problems Have Been Identified For (1) Estimation Of Precipitation Amounts (Large Discrepancies Among Models Over The Austral Ocean And The Ice-sheet), (2) Description Of Particular Atmospheric Processes Associated With Cloud Microphysics And Exchanges Between Surface And Atmosphere In Polar Regions And (3) Seasonal To Interannual Evolution Of The Locations Of The Westerlies And Subtropical Jet And Associated Air Mass Trajectories. The Last Aspect Has Important Direct Consequences For The Atmospheric Dynamics In This Region But Also Indirect Consequences Such As The Links Between Westerlies, Co2 Outgassing And Sea Ice Extent In The Austral Ocean (Saunders Et Al. 2018; Menviel Et Al. 2018; Holland And Kwok, 2012). With The Objectives To Provide (1) A Better Description Of Water Cycle Dynamic In The Southern Ocean At Annual And Interannual Scales And (2) An Improved Transfer Function Between Climate / Water Cycle And Water Isotopes In This Region, A Bunch Of Instruments Measuring Continuously The Isotopic Composition Of Water In The Water Vapor And In The Precipitation Has Been Installed Over The Last Years Along A Transect From La Réunion To Antarctica.first Results From The Antarctic Instruments Reveal Clear Isotopic Signatures Of Large Scale Water Cycle Features Such As Atmospheric Rivers Dominating The Surface Mass Balance In Antarctica. In La Réunion, An Extensive Study Of The Drivers Of The Isotopic Composition Of The Water Vapor Showed That The Influence Of The Subtropical Westerly Jet Dominates The Water Isotopic Signal At Night. To Connect The Two Regions, An Instrument Is Running On Amsterdam Island Since November 2019 With First Results Showing A Clear Isotopic Signature During The High Pressure And Low Pressure Synoptic Events. Still, No In-depth Study Of The Data Trying To Connect The Isotopic Record In Amsterdam Island To Larger Scale Patterns Of The Water Cycle Has Been Initiated.the Goal Of This Internship Is To Provide The First Analyses Of The Isotopic (Water Vapor And Precipitation) Records On Amsterdam Island With A Comparison With Meteorological Data And Environmental Data Collected In Parallel On The Observatory Of Amsterdam Island (E.g. Gaseous Elemental Mercury). After These First Analyses Of The Data, Comparisons Will Be Performed With Water Isotopic Records In La Réunion Over Selected Events (Subtropical Jet Or Cold Fronts Intrusions). This Study Will Involve Analyses Of Meteorological Maps As Well As Backtrajectories.this Internship Requires Skills For (Python Or R Languages) And Involves Large Interactions Within A Large Research Team.
Programme: 1028
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David Renault, Eléna Manfrini, Boris Leroy, Christophe Diagne, Liliana Ballesteros-Mejia, Elena Angulo, Franck Courchamp. (2021). Biological invasions in France: Alarming costs and even more alarming knowledge gaps (Vol. 67).
Abstract: The ever-increasing number of introduced species profoundly threatens global biodiversity. While the ecological and evolutionary consequences of invasive alien species are receiving increasing attention, their economic impacts have largely remained understudied, especially in France. Here, we aimed at providing a general overview of the monetary losses (damages caused by) and expenditures (management of) associated with invasive alien species in France. This country has a long history of alien species presence, partly due to its long-standing global trade activities, highly developed tourism, and presence of overseas territories in different regions of the globe, resulting in a conservative minimum of 2,750 introduced and invasive alien species. By synthesizing for the first time the monetary losses and expenditures incurred by invasive alien species in Metropolitan France and French overseas territories, we obtained 1,583 cost records for 98 invasive alien species. We found that they caused a conservative total amount ranging between US$ 1,280 million and 11,535 million in costs over the period 1993–2018. We extrapolated costs for species invading France, for which costs were reported in other countries but not in France, which yielded an additional cost ranging from US$ 151 to 3,030 millions. Damage costs were nearly eight times higher than management expenditure. Insects, and in particular the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus and the yellow fever mosquito Ae. aegypti, totalled very high economic costs, followed by non-graminoid terrestrial flowering and aquatic plants (Ambrosia artemisiifolia, Ludwigia sp. and Lagarosiphon major). Over 90% of alien species currently recorded in France had no costs reported in the literature, resulting in high biases in taxonomic, regional and activity sector coverages. To conclude, we report alarming costs and even more alarming knowledge gaps. Our results should raise awareness of the importance of biosecurity and biosurveillance in France, and beyond, as well as the crucial need for better reporting and documentation of cost data.
Programme: 136
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Buscetti, M. (2021). Influence of geomagnetic storms on seismometers.
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Alexandra Lavrillier, Semen Gabyshev. (2021). An Indigenous science of the climate change impacts on landscape topography in Siberia (Vol. 50).
Abstract: As with many Indigenous Peoples, the Siberian Evenki nomadic reindeer herders and hunters have observed increasing consequences of climate change on the cryosphere and biodiversity. Since 2017, they have observed previously unthinkable changes in topography. Based exclusively on an Evenki Indigenous Ecological Knowledge system-social anthropology coproduction and community-based continuous observation from 2013, this paper analyses what a Subarctic People observes, knows, does not know, hypothesizes, and models (collectively or individually) about climate change impacts on Indigenous landscape types typical for local river systems. These landscapes are crucial tools for traditional activities. To the nomads, the landscape changes emerge from general anomalies: competition from new plant species; atmosphere–ground–vegetation interactions; icing blisters decrease; rising receding river water interactions; the formation of new soil, ice, and snow types; increasing ground, air, and water temperatures; and the (non)circulation of harsh air throughout the snowpack. We demonstrate the science-like structure and value of Indigenous typologies and hypotheses.
Programme: 1127
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Alexander L. Bond, Christopher Taylor, David Kinchin-Smith, Derren Fox, Emma Witcutt, Peter G. Ryan, Simon P. Loader, Henri Weimerskirch. (2021). A juvenile Tristan albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) on land at the Crozet Islands (Vol. 44).
Abstract: Albatrosses and other seabirds are generally highly philopatric, returning to natal colonies when they achieve breeding age. This is not universal, however, and cases of extraordinary vagrancy are rare. The Tristan Albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) breeds on Gough Island in the South Atlantic Ocean, with a small population on Inaccessible Island, Tristan da Cunha, ca 380 km away. In 2015, we observed an adult male albatross in Gonydale, Gough Island, which had been ringed on Ile de la Possession, Crozet Islands in 2009 when it was assumed to be an immature Wandering Albatross (D. exulans). We sequenced 1109 bp of the cytochrome b mitochondrial gene from this bird, and confirmed it to be a Tristan Albatross, meaning its presence on Crozet 6 years previous, and nearly 5000 km away, was a case of prospecting behaviour in a heterospecific colony. Given the challenges in identifying immature Diomedea albatrosses, such dispersal events may be more common than thought previously.
Programme: 109
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Danish A. Ahmed, Emma J. Hudgins, Ross N. Cuthbert, Phillip J. Haubrock, David Renault, Elsa Bonnaud, Christophe Diagne, Franck Courchamp. (2021). Modelling the damage costs of invasive alien species.
Abstract: The rate of biological invasions is growing unprecedentedly, threatening ecological and socioeconomic systems worldwide. Quantitative understandings of invasion temporal trajectories are essential to discern current and future economic impacts of invaders, and then to inform future management strategies. Here, we examine the temporal trends of cumulative invasion costs by developing and testing a novel mathematical model with a population dynamical approach based on logistic growth. This model characterises temporal cost developments into four curve types (I–IV), each with distinct mathematical and qualitative properties, allowing for the parameterization of maximum cumulative costs, carrying capacities and growth rates. We test our model using damage cost data for eight genera (Rattus, Aedes, Canis, Oryctolagus, Sturnus, Ceratitis, Sus and Lymantria) extracted from the InvaCost database—which is the most up-to-date and comprehensive global compilation of economic cost estimates associated with invasive alien species. We find fundamental differences in the temporal dynamics of damage costs among genera, indicating they depend on invasion duration, species ecology and impacted sectors of economic activity. The fitted cost curves indicate a lack of broadscale support for saturation between invader density and impact, including for Canis, Oryctolagus and Lymantria, whereby costs continue to increase with no sign of saturation. For other taxa, predicted saturations may arise from data availability issues resulting from an underreporting of costs in many invaded regions. Overall, this population dynamical approach can produce cost trajectories for additional existing and emerging species, and can estimate the ecological parameters governing the linkage between population dynamics and cost dynamics.
Programme: 136
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Le Moan E. (2021). Utilisation de modèles mixtes pour décrire la réponse de l’oursin spatangue Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876), espèce endémique des Kerguelen, aux changements environnementaux.
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