Abstract: The Kerguelen Archipelago, constructed on the submarine Northern Kerguelen Plateau, is attributed to Cenozoic volcanism arising from the Kerguelen hot spot. Geochemical studies of 325 to 1000 m thick lava sections of the ?30 to 25 Ma flood basalt forming the bulk of the archipelago show a temporal change from older tholeiitic basalt to younger slightly alkalic basalt. This compositional transition is expressed in a 630 m lava section at Mt. Capitole where the lava sequence is lowermost tholeiitic basalt overlain by slightly alkalic basalt overlain by plagioclase-rich cumulates that are mixtures of plagioclase-phyric basalt and more evolved magmas. During growth of the archipelago, magma supply from the hot spot was variable and at times sufficiently low to enable extensive crystal fractionation; e.g., at Mt. Capitole and nearby Mt. Tourmente only 10 of 120 lava flows have >6 wt% MgO. On the basis of this study and previous isotopic data for the ?34 Ma submarine lavas erupted on the Northern Kerguelen Plateau, other flood basalt sections in the Kerguelen Archipelago, and younger lavas erupted in the archipelago and at Heard Island, there is significant Sr, Nd, Hf, and Pb isotopic heterogeneity that can be explained by two stages of mixing. The first mixing event, best shown by the submarine lavas, is between components that are related to Indian Ocean mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) and the Kerguelen hot spot. From ?34 Ma to <1 Ma, on average the proportion of the MORB-related component decreased. Subsequently, a second mixing process involved addition of a component with relatively high 87Sr/86Sr (>0.7060) and low 143Nd/144Nd (<0.5125) and 176Hf/177Hf (<0.2827) and nonradiogenic Pb isotope ratios (<17.9 for 206Pb/204Pb). We infer that this component was lower continental crust.

Abstract: The Subantarctic Kerguelen Islands (49°S, 70°E) contain freshwater ecosystems among the most isolated in the world. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were assessed in the muscle of 48 brook trout and 38 brown trout caught during summer and spring 2006 in the rivers, lakes and ponds of Kerguelen. The sum of 29 PCBs averaged 404 and 358ngg−1 lipid, and dioxin-like PCB was 19 and 69ngg−1 lipid, in brook and brown trout, respectively. The values showed a high variability and some fish accumulated PCBs at levels similar to those of fish from impacted areas. While inter-sex differences were limited, the season and the morphotype appeared to have the most influence. Fish captured in summer had muscle PCB concentrations about three times higher than those caught in spring and the ‘river’ morphotype of brook trout showed the highest PCB levels.

Abstract: Dissolved barium and molybdenum incorporation in the calcite shell was investigated in the Great Scallop Pecten maximus. Sixty six individuals were exposed for 16 days to two successive dissolved Ba and Mo concentrations accurately differentiated by two different isotopic enrichments (97Mo, 95Mo; 135Ba, 137Ba). Soft tissue and shell isotopic composition were determined respectively by quantitative ICP-MS (Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer) and laser ablation ICP-MS. Results from Ba enrichment indicate the direct incorporation of dissolved Ba into the shell in proportion to the levels in the water in which they grew with a 68 day delay. The low spike contributions and the low partition coefficient (DMo = 0.0049 ± 0.0013), show that neither the soft tissue nor the shell were significantly sensitive to Mo enrichment. These results eliminate direct Mo shell enrichment by the dissolved phase, and favour a trophic uptake that will be investigated using the successive isotopic enrichment approach developed in this study.

Abstract: Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa. We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.

Abstract: We compare the SuperDARN convection patterns with the predictions of a new numerical model of the global distribution of ionospheric electric potentials. The model utilizes high-precision statistical maps of field-aligned currents (FAC) derived from measurements made by polar-orbiting low-altitude satellites. Both the solar and auroral precipitation contributions are included in order to derive the ionospheric conductance. Taking into account the electrodynamic coupling of the opposite hemispheres, the model allows one to obtain the convection patterns developed simultaneously in both hemispheres for given input parameters. SuperDARN, with its database containing global northern and southern convection maps, provides the unique opportunity to compare the model predictions of electric fields with observations. In the present study we focus on the effect of significant interhemispheric asymmetry governed by the IMF clock angle and solar zenith angle. We calculate the convection patterns for specific cases caused by the sign of BY and season and demonstrate the capability of the FAC-based model reproduce the radar observations. The simulation confirms that the solar zenith angle should be linked to the IMF clock angle to fully characterize the convection patterns. The model predicts that the cross-polar cap potential drop is regularly larger in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere.