Abstract: The ancient solar energetic particle (SEP) events of 774/775 CE and 993/994 CE were characterized thanks to radionuclide productions stored in environmental archives as ice cores or tree rings. Primary cosmic ray spectra deduced from these cosmogenic isotope data indicate that the impact of these extreme SEP events would have been much more significant than any of the ones observed during the modern era. However, the impact of these should be studied more accurately in the framework of the ambient dose equivalent impacting aircrew and passengers in the air traffic context by considering physical parameters such as time profile or anisotropy properties. In this study, the impact that 774/775 CE and 993/994 CE past extreme SEP events could have had on modern air traffic is discussed. Possible event spectra for these ancient events are derived from the spectra ground-level enhancement (GLE) 5 and GLE 69, which have been observed during the modern era and have been widely studied/characterized using measurements. The investigations include the impact of the SEP activity on ambient dose equivalent, including detailed analyses considering route, airplane characteristics (departure, arrival, continent, airplane type), and the time occurrence of the SEP event. Statistical analyses show that additional dose levels can reach values on the order of 70 mSv, which is absolutely significant considering the current air traffic recommendations. The orders of magnitude of the ambient dose equivalent induced during past extreme SEP events raises a number of issues, both for aircrews and for avionics hardware. This study demonstrates that simulations can be useful for the evaluation of risks in case of extreme SEP events.

Abstract: Assessing the effects of climate and interspecific relationships on communities is challenging because of the complex interplay between species population dynamics, their interactions, and the need to integrate information across several biological levels (individuals, populations, communities). Usually used to quantify single-species demography, integrated population models (IPMs) have recently been extended to communities. These models allow fitting multispecies matrix models to data from multiple sources while simultaneously accounting for uncertainty in each data source. We used multispecies IPMs accommodating climatic variables to quantify the relative contribution of climate vs. interspecific interactions on demographic parameters, such as survival and breeding success, in the dynamics of a predator–prey system. We considered a stage-structured predator–prey system combining 22 yr of capture–recapture data and population counts of two seabirds, the Brown Skua (Catharacta lönnbergi) and its main prey the Blue Petrel (Halobaena caerulea), both breeding on the Kerguelen Islands in the Southern Ocean. Our results showed that climate and predator–prey interactions drive the demography of skuas and petrels in different ways. The breeding success of skuas appeared to be largely driven by the number of petrels and to a lesser extent by intraspecific density dependence. In contrast, there was no evidence of predation effects on the demographic parameters of petrels, which were affected by oceanographic factors. We conclude that bottom-up mechanisms are the main drivers of this skua–petrel system.

Abstract: On The 5th Of December 2018, A Magnitude Mw 7.5 Earthquake Occurred Southeast Of Maré, An Island Of The Loyalty Archipelago, New Caledonia. This Earthquake Is Located At The Junction Between The Plunging Loyalty Ridge And The Southernmost Vanuatu Arc, In A Tectonically Very Active Area Regularly Subjected To Strong Seismic Crises And Events Higher Than Magnitude 7 And Up To 8. Widely Felt In New Caledonia It Has Been Immediately Followed By A Tsunami Warning, Confirmed Shortly After By A First Wave Arrival At The Loyalty Islands Tide Gauges (Maré And Lifou), Then Along The East Coast Of Grande Terre Of New Caledonia And In Several Islands Of The Vanuatu Archipelago. Seafloor Initial Deformation Linked To Tsunami Generation Has Been Modeled With Most Numerical Code Using Earthquake Parameters Available From Seismic Observatories. Then The Wave Propagation Has Been Modeled Using Schism, Another Modelling Code Solving The Shallow Water Equations On An Unstructured Grid Based On A New Regional Dem Of ~180 M Resolution And Allowing Refinement In Many Critical Areas. Finally, The Results Have Been Compared To Tide Gauge Records, Field Observations And Testimonials From 2018. The Arrival Times, Wave Amplitude And Polarities Present Good Similarities, Especially In Far-field Locations (Hienghène, Port-vila And Poindimié). Maximum Wave Heights And Energy Maps For Two Different Scenarios Highlight The Fact That The Orientation Of The Source (Strike Of The Rupture) Played An Important Role, Focusing The Maximum Energy Path Of The Tsunami South Of Grande-terre And The Isle Of Pines. However, Both Scenarios Indicate Similar Propagation Toward Aneityum, Vanuatu Southernmost Island, The Bathymetry Acting Like A Waveguide. This Study Has A Significant Implication In Tsunami Hazard Mitigation In New Caledonia As It Helps To Validate The Modelling Code And Process Used To Prepare A Scenarios Database For Warning And Coastal Evacuation.

Abstract: Feral cats (Felis catus) are a potential threat for several seabird species including medium sized albatrosses, but studies documenting predation behavior, demographic impacts and effects of predator control are scarce. Here, we present data on feral cat predation behavior on one of the world’s largest seabirds, the wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans) at Kerguelen Island, and show how it affects breeding success and rate of population growth. We assess the effect of a feral cat control experiment on breeding success and population viability. Using 32 camera traps we monitored 25 nests of albatross and detected 295 events showing a potential predator. Of these, 75.2% and 24.8% involved feral cats and giant petrels, respectively. Giant petrels were never implicated in direct predation. We recorded 17 attacks of feral cats on 13 albatross chicks. Attacks lasted in average 52.1 ± 72.9 min, and resulted in the death of 10 of the 13 (76.9%) monitored chicks. Breeding success where attacks were recorded was low (12%) compared to areas with no attack (86%). Mean breeding success during 3 years before cat control was 26% and increased to 80% during the 3 years following the experiment. According to predation scenarios, population modelling showed that the albatross population would decline by 2.7–4.5% per year without cat control. Following cat control the population would increase at 1.8% per year. Our results demonstrate that feral cats predate and have negative impacts on breeding success and population growth rate of wandering albatrosses at Kerguelen Island. We provide recommendations on feral cat control and eradication to mitigate the risk of population decline or local extinction of large albatrosses.

Abstract: A good overlap between offspring energetic requirements and availability of resources is required for successful reproduction. Accordingly, individuals from numerous species fine-tune their timing of breeding by integrating cues that predict environmental conditions during the offspring period. Besides acquiring information from their direct interaction with the environment (personal information), individuals can integrate information by observing the behaviours or performance of others (social information). The use of social information is often beneficial because the accumulated knowledge of conspecifics may represent a source of information more reliable than the intrinsically more limited personal information. However, although social information constitutes the major source of information in a wide range of contexts, studies investigating its use in the context of timing of breeding are scarce. We investigated whether black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) used social information to adjust the timing of egg-laying. We manipulated social information using a food-supplementation experiment, known to advance kittiwakes' reproductive phenology. We expected food-supplemented and unsupplemented pairs to delay and advance, respectively, their timing of laying when surrounded by a majority of neighbours from the opposite food-treatment. However, both unsupplemented and food-supplemented kittiwakes delayed egg-laying when surrounded by a higher proportion of neighbours from the opposite food-treatment. This result shows that kittiwakes use social information to time egg-laying, but that it is not used to match the seasonal peak of food availability. We suggest that when social and personal cues give contradictory environmental information, individuals may benefit from delaying laying to gather more information to make better decisions about investment into eggs. Further, we explored a potential proximate mechanism for the pattern we report. We show that baseline corticosterone, known to mediate reproductive decisions, was lower in unsupplemented females facing a higher proportion of food-supplemented neighbours. Altogether, our results suggest that to fine-tune their timing of laying, kittiwakes use complex decision-making processes in which social and personal information interplay.