Abstract: The Cook Ice Cap (CIC) on the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands recently experienced extremely negative surface mass balance. Further deglaciation could have important impacts on endemic and invasive fauna and flora. To put this exceptional glacier evolution into a multi-centennial-scale context, we refined the evolution of the CIC over the last millennium, investigated the associated climate conditions and explored its potential evolution by 2100 ce. A glaciological model, constrained by cosmic ray exposure dating of moraines, historical documents and recent direct mass balance observations, was used to simulate the ice-cap extents during different phases of advance and retreat between the last millennium and 2100 ce. Cosmogenic dating suggests glacial advance around the early Little Ice Age (LIA), consistent with findings from other sub-Antarctic studies, and the rather cold and humid conditions brought about by the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This study contributes to our currently limited understanding of palaeoclimate for the early LIA in the southern Indian Ocean. Glaciological modelling and observations confirm the recent decrease in CIC extent linked to the intensification of the SAM. Although affected by large uncertainties, future simulations suggest a complete disappearance of CIC by the end of the century.

Abstract: Managing marine systems is challenging, as many marine species are highly mobile. Albatross exemplify this paradigm, overlapping multiple threats at sea, including bycatch. The typical characterization of bycatch, the number of individuals, ignores the long-term, population-wide repercussions of bycatch. Including an estimate of the reproductive value (RV, the loss of future reproductive contributions, given bycatch) is a complementary tool, incorporating the population-wide repercussions of bycatch. While bycatch management via dynamic spatial management allows management boundaries to move, it requires monitoring and enforcement to be effective. We provide a proof of concept to optimize bycatch enforcement activities by dynamically targeting areas of concentrated future productivity characterized by RV. This paper examined a population of black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris) as a case study. We calculate RV and apply it to at-sea distributions. This creates spatiotemporally explicit surfaces used to prioritize times and locations for bycatch mitigation enforcement. Dynamic enforcement has greater theoretical efficiency than static enforcement, but this difference decreases with increasing population-wide RV subject to enforcement. Though there are implementation challenges, many can be reduced with existing tools providing various opportunities. Incorporating RV when characterizing the impacts of bycatch on a population and strategically applying dynamic bycatch enforcement based on RV can be a powerful, efficient component of dynamic ocean management.