Abstract: The Kerguelen Islands are part of the French Southern Territories, located at the limit of the Indian and Southern oceans. They are highly impacted by climate change, and coastal marine areas are particularly at risk. Assessing the responses of species and populations to environmental change is challenging in such areas for which ecological modelling can constitute a helpful approach. In the present work, a DEB-IBM model (Dynamic Energy Budget – Individual-Based Model) was generated to simulate and predict population dynamics in an endemic and common benthic species of shallow marine habitats of the Kerguelen Islands, the sea urchin Abatus cordatus. The model relies on a dynamic energy budget model (DEB) developed at the individual level. Upscaled to an individual-based population model (IBM), it then enables to model population dynamics through time as a result of individual physiological responses to environmental variations. The model was successfully built for a reference site to simulate the response of populations to variations in food resources and temperature. Then, it was implemented to model population dynamics at other sites and for the different IPCC climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Under present-day conditions, models predict a more determinant effect of food resources on population densities, and on juvenile densities in particular, relative to temperature. In contrast, simulations predict a sharp decline in population densities under conditions of IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 with a determinant effect of water warming leading to the extinction of most vulnerable populations after a 30-year simulation time due to high mortality levels associated with peaks of high temperatures. Such a dynamic model is here applied for the first time to a Southern Ocean benthic and brooding species and offers interesting prospects for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic biodiversity research. It could constitute a useful tool to support conservation studies in these remote regions where access and bio-monitoring represent challenging issues.

Abstract: Benthic life in the Southern Ocean (SO) features unique life history traits and species assemblages, but the origin and evolution of many of these taxonomic groups is still unclear. Sea stars (Asteroidea) are a diversified and abundant component of benthic ecosystems in the SO, in which they can play key ecological roles. Former studies suggest that the diversity of the entire class is still poorly known and underestimated, hampering the assessment of the origin and evolution of the class in the SO. In the present study, we analyse spatial patterns of SO sea star diversity using an occurrence database of ~14,000 entries. The biogeographic analysis is coupled with the exploration of an extensive molecular phylogeny based on over 4,400 specimen sequences to inform, support and/or question the observed diversity patterns. We show that the current taxonomy of SO asteroids needs revision and that their diversity has generally been overlooked and misinterpreted. Molecular results highlight the recent diversification of most studied taxa, at genus and species levels, which supports an evolutionary scenario referring to successive invasion and exchange events between the SO and adjacent regions, and clade diversification during periods of rapid environmental changes driven by the succession of glacial cycles. Our work advocates for employing, and endorsing the use of extensive genetic barcode libraries for biodiversity studies.

Abstract: The potential for biological colonization of Antarctic shores is an increasingly important topic in the context of anthropogenic warming. Successful Antarctic invasions to date have been recorded exclusively from terrestrial habitats. While non-native marine species such as crabs, mussels and tunicates have already been reported from Antarctic coasts, none have as yet established there. Among the potential marine invaders of Antarctic shallow waters is Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775), a crab with a circum-Subantarctic distribution and substantial larval dispersal capacity. An ovigerous female of this species was found in shallow waters of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands in 2010. A combination of physiological experiments and ecological modelling was used to assess the potential niche of H. planatus and estimate its future southward boundaries under climate change scenarios. We show that H. planatus has a minimum thermal limit of 1°C, and that its current distribution (assessed by sampling and niche modelling) is physiologically restricted to the Subantarctic region. While this species is presently unable to survive in Antarctica, future warming under both ‘strong mitigation’ and ‘no mitigation’ greenhouse gas emission scenarios will favour its niche expansion to the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) by 2100. Future human activity also has potential to increase the probability of anthropogenic translocation of this species into Antarctic ecosystems.

Abstract: This Paper Reports On Consolidated Ground-based Validation Results Of The Atmospheric No2 Data Produced Operationally Since April 2018 By The Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (Tropomi) On Board Of The Esa/eu Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5p) Satellite. Tropospheric, Stratospheric, And Total No2 Column Data From S5p Are Compared To Correlative Measurements Collected From, Respectively, 19 Multi-axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (Max-doas), 26 Network For The Detection Of Atmospheric Composition Change (Ndacc) Zenith-scattered-light Doas (Zsl-doas), And 25 Pandonia Global Network (Pgn)/pandora Instruments Distributed Globally. The Validation Methodology Gives Special Care To Minimizing Mismatch Errors Due To Imperfect Spatio-temporal Co-location Of The Satellite And Correlative Data, E.g. By Using Tailored Observation Operators To Account For Differences In Smoothing And In Sampling Of Atmospheric Structures And Variability And Photochemical Modelling To Reduce Diurnal Cycle Effects. Compared To The Ground-based Measurements, S5p Data Show, On Average, (I) A Negative Bias For The Tropospheric Column Data, Of Typically −23 % To −37 % In Clean To Slightly Polluted Conditions But Reaching Values As High As −51 % Over Highly Polluted Areas; (Ii) A Slight Negative Median Difference For The Stratospheric Column Data, Of About −0.2 Pmolec Cm−2, I.e. Approx. −2 % In Summer To −15 % In Winter; And (Iii) A Bias Ranging From Zero To −50 % For The Total Column Data, Found To Depend On The Amplitude Of The Total No2 Column, With Small To Slightly Positive Bias Values For Columns Below 6 Pmolec Cm−2 And Negative Values Above. The Dispersion Between S5p And Correlative Measurements Contains Mostly Random Components, Which Remain Within Mission Requirements For The Stratospheric Column Data (0.5 Pmolec Cm−2) But Exceed Those For The Tropospheric Column Data (0.7 Pmolec Cm−2). While A Part Of The Biases And Dispersion May Be Due To Representativeness Differences Such As Different Area Averaging And Measurement Times, It Is Known That Errors In The S5p Tropospheric Columns Exist Due To Shortcomings In The (Horizontally Coarse) A Priori Profile Representation In The Tm5-mp Chemical Transport Model Used In The S5p Retrieval And, To A Lesser Extent, To The Treatment Of Cloud Effects And Aerosols. Although Considerable Differences (Up To 2 Pmolec Cm−2 And More) Are Observed At Single Ground-pixel Level, The Near-real-time (Nrti) And Offline (Offl) Versions Of The S5p No2 Operational Data Processor Provide Similar No2 Column Values And Validation Results When Globally Averaged, With The Nrti Values Being On Average 0.79 % Larger Than The Offl Values.

Abstract: Seismograms from the South Pole have been important for seismological observations for over six decades by providing (until 2007) the only continuous seismic records from the interior of the Antarctic continent. The South Pole, Antarctica station has undergone many updates over the years, including conversion to a digital recording station as part of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) in 1991 and being relocated to multiple deep (>250  m) boreholes 8 km away from the station in 2003 (and renamed to Quiet South Pole, Antarctica [QSPA]). Notably, QSPA is the second most used GSN station by the National Earthquake Information Center to pick phases used to rapidly detect and locate earthquakes globally, and has been used for a variety of glaciological and oceanography studies. In addition, it is the only seismic station on the Earth where low‐frequency (<5  mHz), normal‐mode oscillations of the planet excited by large earthquakes can be recorded without influence from Earth’s rotation, and most of the direct effects of the solid Earth tide vanish. However, the current sensors are largely 1980s vintage, and, while able to make some lower‐frequency observations from earthquakes, the borehole sensors appear unable to resolve ambient ground motions at frequencies lower than 25 mHz due to instrument noise and contamination from magnetic field variations. Recently developed borehole sensors offer the potential to extend background noise observations to below 3 mHz, which would substantially improve the fidelity and scientific value of seismic observations at South Pole. Through collaboration with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, the opportunity exists to emplace a modern very broadband seismometer near the base (>2  km depth) of the Antarctic ice cap, which could lead to unprecedented seismic observations at long periods and facilitate a broad spectrum of Earth science studies.