Abstract: Studies of the effects of variation in resource availability are important for understanding the ecology of high-latitude mammals. This paper examines the potential of dental evidence (tooth wear and breakage) as a proxy for diet and food choice in Vulpes lagopus, the Arctic fox. It presents a preliminary study of dental microwear, gross wear score, and tooth breakage in a sample (n = 78 individuals) from the Yamal Peninsula of the Russian Arctic. While these measures have each been associated with feeding ecology in larger carnivorans (e.g., proportion of bone in the diet), they have yet to be combined in any study and have rarely been applied to smaller species or those from high latitudes. Arctic foxes from the north and south of the peninsula, and those from rodent peak and trough density periods, are compared to assess impact of changes in food availability across space and time. Results indicate that microwear textures vary in dispersion, with more variation in texture complexity, including higher values (suggesting more consumption of bone), in the rodent-poor period in the north of Yamal. Gross wear scores and tooth breakage are also significantly higher for the north of Yamal than the south. These data together suggest that dental evidence can provide important insights into variation in the feeding ecology of Arctic foxes and potentially into the impacts of changes in food abundance across space and time.

Abstract: The development of a computationally efficient scheme for predicting the global distribution of total water level (TWL) is discussed. The ocean model is barotropic, has a horizontal grid spacing of 1/12°, and is based on the NEMO modeling framework. It is forced by the gravitational potential and hourly atmospheric fields for 2008. Hourly time spacing was required to resolve the S2 tide in global air pressure and wind. The predicted tide in water deeper than 400 m was nudged to TPXO8 “observations” of tidal elevation or current using a scheme called tidal nudging (Kodaira et al., 2019). The benefit of nudging horizontal velocity in the momentum equation, compared to sea level in the continuity equation, is discussed. Tidal nudging is shown to improve tidal predictions of sea level at the coast, particularly at the S2 tidal frequency. The predicted radiational S2 tide in sea level forced solely by the S2 tide in global air pressure reaches amplitudes exceeding 80 cm. Decreasing the time spacing of the air pressure forcing from 1 h to 3 h reduces the S2 amplitude in air pressure by a factor of 0.82, consistent with expectations based on Fourier analysis. This highlights the importance of using hourly atmospheric forcing when predicting the global sea level response to atmospheric forcing. The radiational S2 tide in sea level is subject to strong nonlinear interaction with the gravitational tide, leading to a pronounced attenuation of the radiational S2 tide. The attenuation is explained by an increase in effective bottom friction at the S2 frequency due to the presence of the gravitational tide. Four schemes for predicting TWL are evaluated to quantify the impact of tidal nudging and nonlinear interaction of tide and surge. Using TWLs observed by 304 coastal tide gauges, we show it is necessary to include both tidal nudging and nonlinear interaction. Plans for the further development of an operational flood forecast system for the Canadian coast, based on the above model, are discussed.

Abstract: Three forms of killer whales (Orcinus orca) occur around the subantarctic islands of the southern Indian Ocean (42-53°S; 34-74°E). The form encountered in both inshore and offshore waters, described as generalist in its feeding preferences (seals, whales, penguins and fish as prey) and known to depredate toothfish from longliners has been opportunistically photo-identified around the Crozet archipelago since the 1960s. Together with photo-identification data collected in the Prince Edward/Marion EEZ, Kerguelen EEZ and international waters, this report provides up to date information on the abundance and distribution of the Crozet killer whales. In total, 124,313 photographs taken during 2,109 encounters since 1964 were analysed, allowing for 299 individuals to be identified. Most encounters with available data were from the Crozet EEZ (1,432 from longliners, 602 from Île de la Possession) and occurred after 2003 when photo-identification was implemented in the fishery observer program. Among the 188 individuals recorded in the Crozet EEZ since 2003, 22 (12%) were also photographed in the Kerguelen EEZ, 13 (7%) in the Prince Edward/Marion EEZ and 13 (7%) in adjacent international waters. The frequently encountered subset of the Crozet killer whale population was composed of 23 social units (maternal groups), 19 of which included individuals alive in 2020. These social units ranged in size from 1 to 11 individuals with a mean (± SD) of 4 ± 3 per unit. As of June 2020 when the latest photographs included in the study were taken, abundance of this subset was 89-94 individuals. However, detailed analysis of data collected between 2005 and 2020 shows that the number of confirmed deaths (n = 51) exceeds the number of recorded births (n = 46), resulting in a 5% decrease of the population size over this period. These deaths were distributed across the population with the majority occurring in the most common sex and age classes – adult females and juveniles. Factors contributing to mortalities are unclear, but may include lethal interactions with illegal fisheries. When paired with the fact that the Crozet killer whales already underwent a severe mortality episode in the 1990s, these findings raise strong concerns about the future of the population and stress the necessity of conservation actions while maintaining an intensive monitoring effort.

Abstract: In December 2019, the 13th revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) was released by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group V-MOD. This revision comprises two new spherical harmonic main field models for epochs 2015.0 (DGRF-2015) and 2020.0 (IGRF-2020) and a model of the predicted secular variation for the interval 2020.0 to 2025.0 (SV-2020-2025). The models were produced from candidates submitted by fifteen international teams. These teams were led by the British Geological Survey (UK), China Earthquake Administration (China), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain), University of Colorado Boulder (USA), Technical University of Denmark (Denmark), GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (Germany), Institut de physique du globe de Paris (France), Institut des Sciences de la Terre (France), Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Kyoto University (Japan), University of Leeds (UK), Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (Germany), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (USA), University of Potsdam (Germany), and Université de Strasbourg (France). The candidate models were evaluated individually and compared to all other candidates as well to the mean, median and a robust Huber-weighted model of all candidates. These analyses were used to identify, for example, the variation between the Gauss coefficients or the geographical regions where the candidate models strongly differed. The majority of candidates were sufficiently close that the differences can be explained primarily by individual modeling methodologies and data selection strategies. None of the candidates were so different as to warrant their exclusion from the final IGRF-13. The IAGA V-MOD task force thus voted for two approaches: the median of the Gauss coefficients of the candidates for the DGRF-2015 and IGRF-2020 models and the robust Huber-weighted model for the predictive SV-2020-2025. In this paper, we document the evaluation of the candidate models and provide details of the approach used to derive the final IGRF-13 products. We also perform a retrospective analysis of the IGRF-12 SV candidates over their performance period (2015–2020). Our findings suggest that forecasting secular variation can benefit from combining physics-based core modeling with satellite observations.

Abstract: Using significant technological breakthroughs and unconventional approaches, the goal of the in situ probing of glacier ice for a better understanding of the orbital response of climate (SUBGLACIOR) project is to advance ice core research by inventing, constructing and testing an in situ probe to evaluate if a target site is suitable for recovering ice as old as 1.5 million years. Embedding a laser spectrometer, the probe is intended to make its own way down into the ice and to measure, in real time and down to the bedrock, the depth profiles of the ice δD water isotopes as well as the trapped CH4 gas concentration and dust concentration. The probe descent is achieved through electromechanical drilling combined with continuous meltwater sample production using a central melting finger in the drill head. A key aspect of the project lies in the design and implementation of an efficient method to continuously transfer to the surface the ice chips being produced by the drill head and from the refreezed water expulsed downstream from the melting finger, into the borehole. This paper presents a detailed calculation and analysis of the flow rates and pressure conditions required to overcome friction losses of the drilling fluid and to effectively transport ice chips to the surface.