Abstract: On The 5th Of December 2018, A Magnitude Mw 7.5 Earthquake Occurred Southeast Of Maré, An Island Of The Loyalty Archipelago, New Caledonia. This Earthquake Is Located At The Junction Between The Plunging Loyalty Ridge And The Southernmost Vanuatu Arc, In A Tectonically Very Active Area Regularly Subjected To Strong Seismic Crises And Events Higher Than Magnitude 7 And Up To 8. Widely Felt In New Caledonia It Has Been Immediately Followed By A Tsunami Warning, Confirmed Shortly After By A First Wave Arrival At The Loyalty Islands Tide Gauges (Maré And Lifou), Then Along The East Coast Of Grande Terre Of New Caledonia And In Several Islands Of The Vanuatu Archipelago. Seafloor Initial Deformation Linked To Tsunami Generation Has Been Modeled With Most Numerical Code Using Earthquake Parameters Available From Seismic Observatories. Then The Wave Propagation Has Been Modeled Using Schism, Another Modelling Code Solving The Shallow Water Equations On An Unstructured Grid Based On A New Regional Dem Of ~180 M Resolution And Allowing Refinement In Many Critical Areas. Finally, The Results Have Been Compared To Tide Gauge Records, Field Observations And Testimonials From 2018. The Arrival Times, Wave Amplitude And Polarities Present Good Similarities, Especially In Far-field Locations (Hienghène, Port-vila And Poindimié). Maximum Wave Heights And Energy Maps For Two Different Scenarios Highlight The Fact That The Orientation Of The Source (Strike Of The Rupture) Played An Important Role, Focusing The Maximum Energy Path Of The Tsunami South Of Grande-terre And The Isle Of Pines. However, Both Scenarios Indicate Similar Propagation Toward Aneityum, Vanuatu Southernmost Island, The Bathymetry Acting Like A Waveguide. This Study Has A Significant Implication In Tsunami Hazard Mitigation In New Caledonia As It Helps To Validate The Modelling Code And Process Used To Prepare A Scenarios Database For Warning And Coastal Evacuation.

Abstract: Objective To investigate how tobacco and tea spread among virgin populations and how the first addictions have subsequently influenced the behavior of present-day populations. Design Retrospective observational study using data from frozen burials and levels of theobromine, theophylline, caffeine, nicotine, and cotinine measured in hair samples from frozen bodies of autochthonous people. Confrontation of the results with new ethnobotanical, historical and cultural data from the past and with present day epidemiological data from the same region. Setting Eastern Siberia (Yakutia) from the contact with Europeans (17th century) to the assimilation of people into Russian society (19th century). Participants 47 frozen bodies of autochthonous people from eastern Siberia and a review of present-day populations from Yakutia Intervention Levels of theobromine, theophylline, caffeine, nicotine, and cotinine were measured in hair samples. Along with the collection of cultural data associated with the bodies, potential comorbidities were investigated. Main outcome measure We combined LC-HRMS and LC-MS/MS tools for toxicological investigations in hair and we assessed the association between xenobiotic concentrations and geography using several permutation-based methods to infer the economic circuits of tobacco and tea. Comparison of the results obtained with ethno-botanical analyses allowed to identify the products from which the metabolites were derived. Results Hair levels of theobromine, theophylline and caffeine vary with the type of beverage consumed: green, black or local herbal teas. At the beginning of our study period, a few heavy consumers of tobacco were found among light or passive consumers. Tobacco-related co-morbidities began to be recorded one century after contact with Europeans. Heavy tea users were only found from the 19th century and the heaviest users of the two substances date from this century. After the first contact, teas were widely consumed as beverages and medicines but also for shamanic reasons. Economic factors, fashion and social and family contacts seem to have played a decisive role in tobacco consumption very early on. Conclusion Epidemiological characteristics of present-day Yakutia suggest that the high prevalence of smokers and tea consumers, the prevalence of female smokers and tobacco use in the north, find their origins in the diffusion phenomena of the 18th and 19th century. Behavioral evolution governed the process of substance integration and was determinant for the continuity of use of these substances over a long period of time.

Abstract: Aim In migratory species, individuals often use fixed and individual-specific migration strategies, which we term individual migration strategy fidelity (IMSF). Our goal was to test if guillemots have flexible or fixed individual migration strategies (i.e. IMSF), if this behaviour is consistent across large parts of the genus’ range and if they were philopatric to geographical sites or a habitat feature. Location North Atlantic. Taxon Uria spp. Methods We quantified consistent individual differences in inter-annual spatial distribution and habitat occupied throughout the non-breeding period using a large geolocator tracking dataset of 729 adult seabirds breeding at 13 colonies across the Northeast Atlantic and repeatedly tracked up to 7 years over a 9-year period. Additionally, we used a similarity index to calculate relative fidelity to either geographical sites or habitats and linear mixed-effects models to assess persistence of spatial site fidelity over multiple years. Results Both guillemot species exhibited IMSF across a large part of the genus’ range which persisted over multiple years. Individuals of both species and almost all colonies showed fidelity to geographical sites and not to specific habitats. Main conclusions Guillemots show IMSF that is best explained by site familiarity (fidelity to specific sites) rather than habitat specialization (fidelity to specific habitats). In the context of rapidly changing environments, favourable habitats may permanently shift locations and hence species displaying IMSF driven by site familiarity—such as the genus Uria—may not be able to adjust their migration strategies sufficiently fast to sustain individual fitness and ensure population persistence.

Abstract: Identifying drivers of population trends in migratory species is difficult, as they can face many stressors while moving through different areas and environments during the annual cycle. To understand the potential of migrants to adjust to perturbations, it is critical to study the connection of different areas used by different populations during the annual cycle (i.e. migratory connectivity). Using a large-scale tracking data set of 662 individual seabirds from 2 sympatric auk meta-populations (common guillemots Uria aalge and Brünnich’s guillemots U. lomvia) breeding in 12 colonies throughout the Northeast Atlantic, we estimated migratory connectivity in seasonal space use as well as occupied environmental niches. We found strong migratory connectivity, within and between species. This was apparent through a combination of seasonal space use and occupied environmental niches. Brünnich’s guillemot populations grouped into 2 and common guillemot populations into 5 previously undescribed spatiotemporal clusters. Common guillemot populations clustered in accordance with the variable population trends exhibited by the species, while Brünnich’s guillemot populations are declining everywhere where known within the study area. Individuals from different breeding populations in both species were clustered in their space and environmental use, utilising only a fraction of the potential species-wide range. Further, space use varied among seasons, emphasising the variable constraints faced by both species during the different stages of their annual cycle. Our study highlights that considering spatiotemporal dynamics, not only in space but also in occupied environmental niches, improves our understanding of migratory connectivity and thus population vulnerability in the context of global change.

Abstract: The surface mass balance (SMB) is very low over the vast East Antarctic Plateau, for example in the Vostok region, where the mean SMB is on the order of 20–35 kg m-2 a-1. The observation and modeling of spatio-temporal SMB variations are equally challenging in this environment. Stake measurements carried out in the Vostok region provide SMB observations over half a century (1970–2019). This unique data set is compared with SMB estimations of the regional climate models RACMO2.3p2 (RACMO) and MAR3.11 (MAR). We focus on the SMB variations over time scales from months to decades. The comparison requires a rigorous assessment of the uncertainty in the stake observations and the spatial scale dependence of the temporal SMB variations. Our results show that RACMO estimates of annual and multi-year SMB agree well with the observations. The regression slope between modelled and observed temporal variations is close to 1.0 for this model. SMB simulations by MAR are affected by a positive bias which amounts to 6 kg m-2 a-1 at Vostok station and 2 kg m-2 a-1 along two stake profiles between Lake Vostok and Ridge B. None of the models is capable to reproduce the seasonal distributions of SMB and precipitation. Model SMB estimates are used in assessing the ice-mass balance and sea-level contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet by the input-output method. Our results provide insights into the uncertainty contribution of the SMB models to such assessments.