Abstract: We compare a global compilation of shear-wave splitting measurements with azimuthal seismic anisotropy parameters inferred from surface-wave tomography. The currently available splitting dataset is taken from a novel comprehensive collection of available publications that is updated interactively online. The comparison between the two types of data is made by calculating predicted splitting parameters from the anisotropic tomography model. Comparing these predicted splitting parameters with the observed ones, we find a considerable correlation between the two datasets at global scale. This result is noteworthy, since such correlation did not seem to exist in previous studies. The spatial resolution associated with the two types of methods is rather different. While surface waves have good vertical resolution and poor lateral resolution of several hundreds of kilometers, SKS splitting measurements have good lateral, but poor vertical resolution. The correlation can be understood in light of recent propositions that anisotropy seen by SKS splitting constrains mostly the upper mantle, and therefore a similar depth region as surface waves. The correlation also confirms the generally good quality of the shear-wave measurements, as well as that of the anisotropic tomography model.

Abstract: We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodytes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ?50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.