Abstract: The ancient solar energetic particle (SEP) events of 774/775 CE and 993/994 CE were characterized thanks to radionuclide productions stored in environmental archives as ice cores or tree rings. Primary cosmic ray spectra deduced from these cosmogenic isotope data indicate that the impact of these extreme SEP events would have been much more significant than any of the ones observed during the modern era. However, the impact of these should be studied more accurately in the framework of the ambient dose equivalent impacting aircrew and passengers in the air traffic context by considering physical parameters such as time profile or anisotropy properties. In this study, the impact that 774/775 CE and 993/994 CE past extreme SEP events could have had on modern air traffic is discussed. Possible event spectra for these ancient events are derived from the spectra ground-level enhancement (GLE) 5 and GLE 69, which have been observed during the modern era and have been widely studied/characterized using measurements. The investigations include the impact of the SEP activity on ambient dose equivalent, including detailed analyses considering route, airplane characteristics (departure, arrival, continent, airplane type), and the time occurrence of the SEP event. Statistical analyses show that additional dose levels can reach values on the order of 70 mSv, which is absolutely significant considering the current air traffic recommendations. The orders of magnitude of the ambient dose equivalent induced during past extreme SEP events raises a number of issues, both for aircrews and for avionics hardware. This study demonstrates that simulations can be useful for the evaluation of risks in case of extreme SEP events.

Abstract: Synchrony in ecological systems, the degree to which elements respond similarly over time or space, can inform our understanding of how ecosystems function and how they are responding to global change. While studies of ecological synchrony are often focused on within-species dynamics, synchrony among species may provide important insights into how dynamics of one species are indicative of conditions relevant to the larger community, with both basic and applied implications. Ecological theory suggests there may be conditions under which communities might exhibit increased synchrony, however, the degree to which these patterns are borne out in natural systems is currently unknown. We used long-term breeding success data from a community of Antarctic seabirds to assess the degree of interspecific, community synchrony, and the role that extreme events play in driving these dynamics. We assessed theoretical links between community synchrony, niche separation, and environmental variability using data from this and three other seabird communities as well as a simulation study. Results show that reproductive success for individual species in the Antarctic seabird community fluctuated relatively independently from one another, resulting in little synchrony across this community, outside of extreme years. While an exceptionally poor year for a given species was not necessarily associated with an exceptionally poor year for any other species, one community-wide extreme year existed. When compared to other seabird communities, this group of Antarctic seabirds exhibited lower overall synchrony and higher estimated niche separation, supporting theoretical predictions. Empirical and simulation-derived results suggest that communities where temporal variation is small for conditions in which species respond substantially differently, and large for conditions in which species respond similarly, may exhibit more synchronous dynamics. Identifying where and why synchronous dynamics might be more apparent has the potential to inform how ecological communities might respond to future global change.

Abstract: Studies of the effects of variation in resource availability are important for understanding the ecology of high-latitude mammals. This paper examines the potential of dental evidence (tooth wear and breakage) as a proxy for diet and food choice in Vulpes lagopus, the Arctic fox. It presents a preliminary study of dental microwear, gross wear score, and tooth breakage in a sample (n?=?78 individuals) from the Yamal Peninsula of the Russian Arctic. While these measures have each been associated with feeding ecology in larger carnivorans (e.g., proportion of bone in the diet), they have yet to be combined in any study and have rarely been applied to smaller species or those from high latitudes. Arctic foxes from the north and south of the peninsula, and those from rodent peak and trough density periods, are compared to assess impact of changes in food availability across space and time. Results indicate that microwear textures vary in dispersion, with more variation in texture complexity, including higher values (suggesting more consumption of bone), in the rodent-poor period in the north of Yamal. Gross wear scores and tooth breakage are also significantly higher for the north of Yamal than the south. These data together suggest that dental evidence can provide important insights into variation in the feeding ecology of Arctic foxes and potentially into the impacts of changes in food abundance across space and time.