Abstract: We submit three candidate models following the call for IGRF-11. We apply a simple modeling approach in spherical harmonics based on a quadratic Taylor expansion for the internal field time variations. We use the Dst magnetic index as a proxy for the external field variations. In order to compensate for the limitations incurred by such a conventional approach, we focus on the optimal selection of satellite data in space and time. We also show that some a priori knowledge about the core field state helps us to avoid the pitfall encountered in the case of rapid changes of core field accelerations. Indeed, various acceleration events of relevance for the IGRF 11th occurred between 2003 and 2010, one of them being a geomagnetic jerk. They could entail disagreements between IGRF candidate models for the secular variation (SV) if data prior to 2008 are used. Our SV and main field (MF) candidate models have a root mean square uncertainty less than 6 nT/yr and 8nT, respectively, with respect to the modeled magnetic field contributions. These values correspond to the intrinsic error associated with truncating SV and MF models to spherical harmonic degree 8 and 13, respectively, as requested for IGRF models.

Abstract: We study the influence of the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field configuration on the solar energetic particles (SEPs) as detected at different satellites near Earth and on the correlation of their peak intensities with the pa\-rent solar activity. We selected SEP events associated with X and M-class flares at western longitudes, in order to ensure good magnetic connection to Earth. These events were classified into two categories according to the global interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) configuration present during the SEP pro\-pagation to 1~AU: standard solar wind or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). Our analy\-sis shows that around 20\% of all particle events are detected when the spacecraft is immersed in an ICME. {\bf The correlation of the peak particle intensity with the projected speed of the SEP-associated coronal mass ejection is similar in the two IMF categories of proton and electron events, $\sim 0.6$.} The SEP events show stronger correlation of the peak proton intensity with the soft X-ray flux of the associated solar flare, $r=0.67^{\pm 0.13}$, compared to the SEP events propagating in the standard solar wind, $r=0.36^{\pm 0.13}$. {\bf The difference is more pronounced for near-relativistic electrons. The main reason for the different correlation behaviour seems to be the larger spread of the flare longitude in the SEP sample detected in the solar wind as compared to SEP events within ICMEs. We discuss to which extent observational bias, different physical processes (particle injection, transport, etc.) and the IMF configuration can influence the relationship between SEPs and coronal activity

Abstract: We study an ensemble of six multi-year global Bayesian carbon dioxide (CO2) atmospheric inversions that vary in terms of assimilated observations (either column retrievals from one of two satellites or surface air sample measurements) and transport model. The time series of inferred annual fluxes are first compared with each other at various spatial scales. We then objectively evaluate the small inversion ensemble based on a large dataset of accurate aircraft measurements in the free troposphere over the globe, which are independent of all assimilated data. The measured variables are connected with the inferred fluxes through mass-conserving transport in the global atmosphere and are part of the inversion results. Large-scale annual fluxes estimated from the bias-corrected land retrievals of the second Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) differ greatly from the prior fluxes, but are similar to the fluxes estimated from the surface network within the uncertainty of these surface-based estimates. The OCO-2-based and surface-based inversions have similar performance when projected in the space of the aircraft data, but the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two flux estimates vary within the northern and tropical parts of the continents. The verification data also suggest that the more complex and more recent transport model does not improve the inversion skill. In contrast, the inversion using bias-corrected retrievals from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) or, to a larger extent, a non-Bayesian inversion that simply adjusts a recent bottom-up flux estimate with the annual growth rate diagnosed from marine surface measurements both estimate much different fluxes and fit the aircraft data less. Our study highlights a way to rate global atmospheric inversions. Without any general claim regarding the usefulness of all OCO-2 retrieval datasets vs. all GOSAT retrieval datasets, it still suggests that some satellite retrievals can now provide inversion results that are, despite their uncertainty, comparable with respect to credibility to traditional inversions using the accurate but sparse surface network and that are therefore complementary for studies of the global carbon budget.

Abstract: We review the evolution of concepts on and methods of estimating the state of stress from fault movements. Theories of failure in isotropic materials suggested a simple geometrical construction of optimal principal stress directions from a fault plane and its associated slip. These optimal directions align shear stress and slip directions and maximize the difference between shear stress and frictional resistance on the fault plane. Optimal stress directions for calcite twinning are obtained by a similar construction, with the difference that they maximize shear stress. Force representation of seismic sources independently introduced pressure, P, and tension, T, axes at positions that also maximize shear stress on both nodal planes.