Abstract: Master Thesis (M2)

Abstract: Master II "Ecophysiologie, énergétique et comportement" – Année 2005-2006 – Université Louis Pasteur,Strasbourg

Abstract: Many passive microwave remote sensing applications such as land surface temperature, snow water equivalent and soil moisture retrievals need to take into account a soil parameterization to the overall surface signal emission. Soil emission modeling presents large uncertainties when the soil is frozen. In this paper, an empirical retrieval method is presented, specifically for rough frozen soil permittivity estimates at 10.7, 19 and 37GHz. The method was tested and validated using in-situ passive microwave measurements at incidence angles from 0 to 60° of sub-arctic frozen organic soils in Northeastern Canada. The retrieved permittivity values give an overall RMSE between the measured and simulated brightness temperatures of 4.6K for all frequencies combined. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different soil parameters optimized in this study. This analysis suggests that the accuracy of the retrieved parameters, using the method given here, is of ±1.00 for the permittivity and ±0.12cm for surface roughness. Also, a comparison was conducted between the parameterization used in this study and the one of Wegmüller and Mätzler (1999) to estimate the soil contribution to the emitted brightness temperature of snowpacks. An improvement of 66% of the RMSE between the modeled and measured snow brightness temperatures was observed when using the approach of this study compared to the previous work. The method shows great potential to improve the estimation of the frozen soil contribution to the measured passive microwave brightness temperature.

Abstract: We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025–2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: ∼50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and ∼75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adélie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adélies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.