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Author
Title
Modeling species response to climate change in sub-Antarctic islands – Echinoids as a case study for the Kerguelen Plateau.
Type
Peer-reviewed symposium
Year
2019
Publication
Second symposium on kerguelen plateau marine ecosystems and fisheries
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
95-116
Keywords
species distribution model, trophic niche, isotopic niche, biotic interaction, distribution dynamics
Abstract
In the Kerguelen Islands, the multiple effects of climate change are expected to impact coastal marine habitats. Species distribution models (SDM) can represent a convenient tool to predict the biogeographic response of species to climate change but biotic interactions are not considered in these models. Nevertheless, new species interactions can emerge in communities exposed to environmental changes and the structure of biotic interactions is directly related to the potential resilience of ecosystems. Trophic interaction studies can help predict species vulnerability to environmental changes using carbon (?13C) and nitrogen (?15N) stable isotope ratios to generate trophic models. Using new available data inputs, we generated robust SDM and trophic interaction models to assess the potential response and sensitivity of three echinoid species to future worst-case scenarios of environmental change in the Kerguelen Plateau region. The two modelling approaches provide contrasting insights into the potential responses of each species to future environmental changes with both approaches identifying Abatus cordatus to be particularly vulnerable due to its narrow ecological niche and endemism to near-shore areas. Coupling insights gained from trophic niche ecology with species distribution modelling represents a promising approach that can improve our understanding and ability to predict the potential responses of species to future habitat changes.
Programme
1044
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Summary Language
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Edition
ISSN
978-1-876934-30-9
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Notes
Approved
yes
Call Number
Serial
8064
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