Jenouvrier Stephanie, Holland Marika, Stroeve Julienne, Serreze Mark, Barbraud Christophe, Weimerskirch Henri, Caswell Hal, . (2014). Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change
. Nature Climate Change, 4(8), 715–718.
Abstract: Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution1 and future trends of local populations2, 3, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort4. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies5 by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model6, 7 with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics8, global analyses are critical for conservation9. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.
Programme: 109
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. (2014). First breeding record of the northern giant petrel Macronectes halli at Ile Amsterdam
. Antarct. Sci., 26(04), 369–370.
Keywords: KW -,
Programme: 109
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. (2014). Oxidative stress in relation to reproduction, contaminants, gender and age in a long-lived seabird
. Oecologia, 175(4), 1107–1116-.
Keywords: Ageing, Inflammation, Mercury, Oxidative stress, POPs, Reproduction, Seabirds,
Programme: 109
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Weimerskirch Henri, Cherel Yves, Delord Karine, Jaeger Audrey, Patrick Samantha C, Riotte-Lambert Louise, . (2014). Lifetime foraging patterns of the wandering albatross: Life on the move!
. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 450, 68–78.
Keywords: Diomedea exulans, Foraging movements, Lifetime distribution,
Programme: 109
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Viviant Morgane, Monestiez Pascal, Guinet Christophe, . (2014). Can We Predict Foraging Success in a Marine Predator from Dive Patterns Only? Validation with Prey Capture Attempt Data
. PLoS ONE, 9(3), e88503–.
Abstract: Predicting how climatic variations will affect marine predator populations relies on our ability to assess foraging success, but evaluating foraging success in a marine predator at sea is particularly difficult. Dive metrics are commonly available for marine mammals, diving birds and some species of fish. Bottom duration or dive duration are usually used as proxies for foraging success. However, few studies have tried to validate these assumptions and identify the set of behavioral variables that best predict foraging success at a given time scale. The objective of this study was to assess if foraging success in Antarctic fur seals could be accurately predicted from dive parameters only, at different temporal scales. For this study, 11 individuals were equipped with either Hall sensors or accelerometers to record dive profiles and detect mouth-opening events, which were considered prey capture attempts. The number of prey capture attempts was best predicted by descent and ascent rates at the dive scale; bottom duration and descent rates at 30-min, 1-h, and 2-h scales; and ascent rates and maximum dive depths at the all-night scale. Model performances increased with temporal scales, but rank and sign of the factors varied according to the time scale considered, suggesting that behavioral adjustment in response to prey distribution could occur at certain scales only. The models predicted the foraging intensity of new individuals with good accuracy despite high inter-individual differences. Dive metrics that predict foraging success depend on the species and the scale considered, as verified by the literature and this study. The methodology used in our study is easy to implement, enables an assessment of model performance, and could be applied to any other marine predator.
Programme: 109
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